Dan 🤖🌥❤️ 🚀

At a $15B market cap the market is pricing $IREN as if Sweetwater, Oklahoma, and the remaining 4GW of uncontracted capacity are worth zero. $IREN just energized 1.4GW of renewable ERCOT connected capacity that would take a competitor 5-7 years and $3-5B minimum to replicate from scratch. The announcement dropped a day after retail gave up waiting for the April deadline. When $IREN contracts Sweetwater at the Microsoft comparable economics, that's $8-9B ARR. The energization announcement is the starting gun for accelerating the negotiations. At a minimum this new capacity is worth $3B in market cap (20% price jump), assuming just the raw cost of building 1.4GWs but the real value is the time to compute. Which in today's compute restrained world is priceless. Looking ahead: - Sweetwater 100% contracted - With MSFT Horizon economics (low end est.): $8.5B ARR - ARR Multiple 4x (conservative) - Implied Value $34B - Share price $150 (current market cap plus fully contracted Sweetwater deal) So the only bear case is $IREN can't sign a deal despite that all we hear is the demand far accedes the compute supply and the other Neoclouds are signing massive deals. I'm willing to bet they will close a deal. The risk reward is just to good here. We're looking at a 3x in 2026 and all we need is for the lawyers to do their thing and close the deal. The Horizon Microsoft deal took a long time and frustrated many investors. The Sweetwater deal will be worth the wait.

@ChadSlimeBased Yeah, I ate too much fiber. Drinking some coffee will make it massive!

I just got the call. MASSIVE moves incoming tomorrow.

@kevinlhr88 Can you explain why this is bearish for $STRC? If they can keep the 11.5% div then there is no reason for the price to not be almost pegged to $100. They didn’t buy this week because they didn’t sell enough STRC? Wouldn’t that mean they will increase the dividend to sell more?

Bullish for $MSTR Bearish for $STRC

@mikealfred I don’t know that Mckenzie guy says it’s a scam. 🤣🤡

Instead of asking "what is the thesis for $1,000,000 Bitcoin?", ask instead "what is going to stop BTC from going to $1M per coin"? If you're smart and intellectually honest, you won't come up with much. Low IQ/dishonest people will say: 1. Only criminals use it 2. The Government will stop it 3. I can just create a better "crypto" Or some variation of these bogus arguments. Don't fall for this garbage. This is lazy or intentionally dishonest thinking. Focus on the prize. Execute. Win. See you at $1M.

@bitcoinbutcher1 @danroberts0101 I think they could show a gain in the calls as the stock price was down quarter to quarter. This could off set the loss and show a positive earnings per share.

@mcF_dan @danroberts0101 Yeah, the algos will react to the Rev and EPS miss but the reality is guidance and deals will command the attention of Wall Street

$IREN Earnings Wish List for 5.7.26 (no particular order) After @danroberts0101 dropped two tweets within hours on Friday afternoon related to Sweetwater energization, the anticipation heightened going into the week leading up to Thursday earnings. Here's somethings on my mind that need more detail: 1) Revenue and EPS for QTR ending 3/31 Similar to @_Sgr_A_Star I expect a revenue and EPS miss due the bitcoin:native weakness in spot price as well as the removal of ASICs from Prince George, Mackenzie and possibly Childress that occurred by 3/31 quarter end. That said, the market likely anticipates this weakness already but will have its eyes glued to the AI quarterly revenue. "The Group reported $289,411,000 of unsatisfied remaining performance obligations, of which approximately $150,072,000 is expected to be recognized within the next 12 months." So the company had ARR of $150 million at year end and forecasted $500 million at the end of the quarter and reported $400 million contracted as of 2/5. So 500arr / 4 qtr = 125 qtr and 150/4 qtr = 37.5 (125+37.5) / 2 (midpoint) = 81.25m AI revenue estimated by GP The GPU delays that frustrated us with 17m the prior quarter may actually help us and result in additional revenue if $IREN secured better rental rates; that's the upside scenario and may boost revenue. 3) Prince George Confirm all of the GPUs or roughly 24k are installed and comment on if management secured stronger ARR than 500m for that batch. Also, any potential expansion of 30 MW at the site previously speculated by @FransBakker9812 4) Canal Flats Management removed from guidance in March and expect to mine bitcoin:native until September yet emphasizes time to compute. Is management waiting for Vera Rubin for this site? At roughly 15m/mw that a potential $400 million ARR if you assume 30 MW / 1.1 PUE at 15m/MW Long term its immaterial but for a company that just reported 17m AI revenue in the prior quarter, every converted MW matters and fast. 5) Mackenzie We know that the company increased guidance to $3.7b ARR in March with a 50k GPU purchase that $2.3B of the $3.5B purchase to Mackenzie or ~33k GPUs at $26,000 annually per GPU or $858 million ARR but that suggests an hourly rate of only less than $3.00. Management guided for a lower increase in pricing of 25% than the increased cost of B300 of 40-50%. Get aggressive Dan and up the guidance to reflect the current market's desperation for compute. That $858 million ARR becomes $1.14B with updated guidance to $4.00. Show your pricing power in this environment. Bonus points for announcing a deal and disclosing clients. 4) Childress - H1-4 Multiple items to address but the most important is updating the market on Horizon 1-4. Management will command a premium to its current valuation once Horizon 1 is delivered to $MSFT Ideally, we deliver H1 but at a minimum lay out the timeline of deliveries along timing on revenue to give the market more certainty. Bonus points for H3-4 substitution talks with $MSFT that show potential upside for ARR as well as access to Vera Rubin. 5) Childress - H5-6 Hash rate is dropping and rumors of mining halls being demolished. Is $MSFT or another hyperscaler asking $IREN to forego air cooled DCs with B300s for liquid cooled DCs that feature Vera Rubin? If so, announce the partner ideally and up guidance for pricing that justifies the opportunity cost of the lower retrofit cost of B300 6) Childress - 17k GPUs You allocated 17k GPUs for 26,000 per year or $442 million ARR. Same comments as Mackenzie; get more aggressive in guidance to reflect the market. $442 million likely becomes $550+ million ARR 7) The rest of Childress Currently, we know that there are 300 (H1-4) and 75 (17k GPUs) designated at Childress for almost a certain fact but that leaves 375 MW remaining. The company prides itself in optionality but that sometimes looks like indecision. A more defined path with additional ARR guidance will inspire more confidence in the site's vision. At 250 MW Critical IT (safely) that results in either the following a) B300s with lower cap ex for retrofit and faster delivery that likely command $10 million/MW annually or b) Vera Rubin delivered later for more cap ex but the upside of $15 million / MW with longer lasting infrastructure 8) Sweetwater We see the job postings and the 1.4 GW elephant requires commentary. Energization is awesome. How fast to we expect to get compute to market? What kind of client is right for the site or will there be multiple tenants? Bonus points for a deal. 9) Australia Lot of marketing spent down under with $MSFT and @AnthropicAI expansion to your hometown. Does $IREN have site(s) or will they pursue a joint venture? 10) More GPU purchases with more aggressive ARR guidance to reflect a market thirsty for compute that values time to compute more than ever 11) Oklahoma Simply confirm that things are on track for 2027-2028 and that your team is receiving interest all ready due to the compute constraints in the market 12) Pipeline I actually think it makes sense to keep this under wraps as the company focuses on the existing 4.5 GW with the exception of Australia due to the marketing dollars. This week is the reason we waited patiently. Enjoy it and let Dan and the team deliver. Best, BB

@ChadSlimeBased Working from home sucks the only plus side is no commute.

Wagies will read this and start praying to work from home again lmao

@BitcoinAIGuy Doordashed me some guac for Thursday’s ER

Are we pumping or dumping this week?????

$IREN is very close to delivering the first tranche, H1, to Microsoft ahead of schedule. This is bound to make the next deal easier to sign and more profitable. A massive deal for the newly available 1.4GW is very possible. Perhaps Microsoft was waiting to see how $IREN performed on the first contract.

My take on what the $NBIS generous prepayment will mean for $IREN is simple There is a high chance that the market will see NBIS structure as evidence the market has moved and that hyperscalers are willing to pay up when the capacity being offered solves a bigger near term problem. Ladies and gentleman this is pricing power evidence for you, right here. Now, understand the market is likely to frontrun IREN stock, but this will be a fierce battle between bulls and bears. There will be a lot of scrutiny. The following week will be a critical, and what comes up in the earnings release will be key. For instance, no new deal will likely end up being anticlimatic But, as of now, all the roads point to pricing power in the industry.

@matteopelleg The biggest problem rich people have is high taxes. The ROC helps by keeping the income down but provides some cash flow for several years.

i've finally understood how clever STRC is

@BitcoinTeacher_ Plenty of Bitcoiners are over 50. The ROC starts looking really nice when you are already in the higher income brackets.

@mcF_dan I would never use strc unless I was like 55

How many people don’t realize they can get 11.5% APY with close to 0 volatility? Dividend reinvested 12.5-13.5%?! Do people just think it’s too good to be true, or don’t believe in Bitcoin?

@AvivArazi The Datacenters they built for mining is really good experience that translates to AI Compute factories.

I want to be honest; like every company, $IREN has weaknesses, and those are... Capex Time Experience

This is real. Before it was a risk. That risk is gone. The company does not get credit for its stellar execution. They can sell close deals. It’s better that they weigh all their options and close the deal when they need to. That need time is approaching fast and having 1.4GW ready to go accelerates the negotiations. You were warned.

@mcF_dan It will have no material effect on price. The company’s known to execute but cannot sell what they have.

$IREN conspiracy theory: they waited till May 1st after the market closed to announce Sweetwater energization just to fuck over shorts. Shorts were betting on an April execution fail. What could they have for us at the ER that will further squeeze the shorts? 🍿

@seer_xyz where will they plug them in?

Anthropic is in discussions to purchase inference chips from Fractile, a U.K. startup with a novel architecture, The Information reported Saturday. Will this affect $NVDA?

@BlackPantherCap They upped their guidance to $3.7B ARR. i would still bet that they exceed that.

$IREN sentiment is detached from execution, and big profiles are hammering it, while execution remains flawless. Nobody talks about the track record. Let me fix that: 2023: Pivoted to AI. Started with 248 NVIDIA H100s when nobody was paying attention. 
2024: 760MW to 2,310MW of grid power secured. Zero debt. $404M cash. Revenue up 144% YoY. Hit every target set. 
2025: 50 EH/s achieved. Microsoft contract signed. $9.7B deal. Record Q1 revenue of $240M (+355% YoY). Blackwell GPU orders placed. 
2026: Over $9.2B in secured funding. 4.5GW+ of grid-connected power. $3.4B ARR target by year-end. 345kV substation just energized at Sweetwater 1. Milestone after milestone.
 Short sellers require retail panic.
 Management has delivered EXACTLY as stated.
 Every. Single. Time.
 Noise is loud. Execution is louder. -BP Note: This is NOT financial advice.

Great summary for $IREN heading into earnings, definitely a MUST read for investors Exciting week ahead!

@FransBakker9812 @tommyleed8888 I bought $NBIS puts for the up coming earnings. Just a small bet for amusement. The stock is pricing in to much forward perfection. The actual earning’s numbers could throw cold water on the $NBIS bulls.

@tommyleed8888 Haven't opened one yet. I honestly think you guys shouldn't be proud to have that reddit guy on tour team. He's worse than any Iren bull in terms of rooting against the other team.

The closer it gets to being able to deliver compute the more likely they are to close a deal. This was a major hurdle. They have the power. Look at BE stock. Owning 1.4GW of grid connected power is better than expensive fuel cells. $IREN now owns what every hyperscale needs but are years away from having.

@mcF_dan @data168 Whats so special about energizaton? We need contracts, not construction updates.

Wait the consensus is they will miss the consensus? Anyway. I don’t think the actual earnings this quarter is what’s going to move the price. The current contracted and deployed AI ARR will be a big deal. They spent the last quarter installing GPUs and unplugging ASICs. That transition will take a hit in the revenue.

$IREN 실적 컨센서스 하회 예상 IREN Limited(IREN)는 2026년 5월 7일 목요일, 미국 동부시간 기준 오후 4시 5분경 실적을 발표할 예정입니다. 현재 컨센서스 예상치는 매출 2억 1,300만 달러에 주당 순손실 -$0.18로, 이는 전년 대비 43.8%의 매출 성장을 의미합니다. 한편 Earnings Whisper 기준 예상치는 주당 -$0.23 손실입니다. 투자자들은 이번 실적 발표를 앞두고 다소 약세(bearish) 심리를 보이고 있지만, 동시에 78.6%는 실적이 예상치를 상회(beat)할 것으로 기대하고 있습니다. 공매도 비중(short interest)은 지난 실적 발표 이후 14.9% 증가했으며, 주가는 실적 발표 이후 시가 대비 14.3% 상승해 현재 200일 이동평균선($41.72) 대비 9.4% 위에 위치해 있습니다. 전반적으로, 지난 실적 발표 이후 이익 추정치는 상향 조정되어 왔습니다. 옵션 시장에서는 이번 실적 발표를 기준으로 약 15.7%의 변동성을 반영하고 있으며, 최근 분기들에서 실제 평균 주가 변동폭은 약 10% 수준이었습니다. 또한 2026년 5월 1일 금요일에는, 2026년 5월 8일 만기인 행사가 $50 콜옵션 약 23,196 계약이 눈에 띄게 매수되는 움직임이 있었습니다. < 종합 의견 > 주가 결정 요인 : 숫자는 안 좋을 가능성 높지만, 이미 기대가 낮아서 ‘방향은 가이던스에 달림’ 1) MSFT 계약 진행 상황 2) 추가 hyperscaler 계약 3) AI DC 매출 가시화 (ARR)

@Hodlon41moreday I’ve done very well holding through all their accretive ATMs over the last 2 years. I’m happy to be cukoo if it means I retired my blood line. Good luck AllinSlim.

@mcF_dan ?