Manuel Ogando

The oil price is a huge problem, but a potentially bigger problem for Trump is the yield on treasuries going up. Since the war on Iran started, the 10Y yield is up ~0.42% to 4.39%. The rise in yields translates to tens of billions of dollars in higher debt servicing payments. When you add the hundreds of billions likely to be spent on the war & the impact of an energy shock, the fiscal situation looks even more precarious. In his last erratic hubristic catastrophe, Trump backed out of his tariff tantrum when the 10Y yield hit 4.5%. He might try to do something similar here, but he may be surprised to find out war is not like tariffs. Tariffs are fake numbers on pieces of paper that can be made to say anything at any time. IRGC has control of Hormuz and can likely maintain it for many months with their cheap drones & missiles. Theh have no reason to accept a ceasefire without extracting hefty concessions from the US: dismantling all US regional bases, lifting sanctions, and paying reparations. Agreeing to Iranian conditions for opening Hormuz is an unthinkable declaration of abject defeat, and likely completely unacceptable to Trump's Israeli bosses. But continuing the war will be devastating to Americans, USG fiscal position, and the dollar. Between the longterm wellbeing of Americans and the desire of Israel for more goyim land, Trump will almost certainly choose the latter. But bitcoin, dump bonds, rug the idiots who lend to warmongers, and bankrupt the warmongers. This is the only way the fiat war nightmare ends.

"But Rothbard is not an economist-economist. ... He ranks among the 20th century’s most outstanding political philosophers, venturing out there even into the field of epistemology."

The European Portuguese translation is also in the works. stephankinsella.com/2026/03/europe…

Translator's Note included. stephankinsella.com/2025/10/spanis… nb @jfcarpio @mcaogando

@ianbremmer The US can open Hormuz next week by simply evacuating all US bases in the Middle East, ending all military and economic aid to Israel, and lifting sanctions on Iran. The entire world wins except Israel's land thieving regime.

"Rothbard is not an economist-economist. In distinct contrast to some contemporary contenders and upstarts now claiming his mantle, Rothbard’s voluminous work ranges over the entire field of the social sciences" propertyandfreedom.org/books/rothbard…

A guerra apenas destrói; não pode criar. Guerra, carnificina, destruição e devastação temos em comum com as feras predadoras da selva; o trabalho construtivo é a nossa característica distintivamente humana. mises.pt/um-argumento-m…

@joaquimsacouto There is only Badfare state. Welfare state is a unicorn.

Escrita em 1919, no rescaldo imediato da Primeira Guerra Mundial e do colapso do Império Austro-Húngaro, Nation, State, and Economy é uma resposta directa ao clima de nacionalismo, proteccionismo e “economia de guerra” que tinha tomado conta da Europa. Mises, que viveu esse período de perto, aponta que a paz não se constrói com mais poder político centralizado, mas com limites claros ao Estado e com cooperação voluntária entre pessoas e nações. @Mises_Portugal_

Há 6 anos começava oficialmente um dos mais infames e abjectos períodos de alucinação colectiva e de restrições de liberdades básicas, ao arrepio de qualquer suporte constitucional e contra os mais elementares princípios de boa gestão de saúde pública.

O Sanchez diz que é contra a guerra. Mas depois, como bom socialista ladrão, é hipócrita e financia a guerra.

US national debt just hit $39 trillion. It's up ~7% in 14 months since Trump took office, and his big war is just getting started. $50 trillion here we come 🚀🚀🚀🌕🌕🌕

Ao continuarmos a assinalar o centenário do nascimento de Murray Rothbard, recordemos que ele nunca comprometeu os seus princípios e permaneceu fiel à liberdade ao longo da sua, infelizmente, demasiado breve vida. mises.pt/rothbard-nunca…

My favorite part of this video is that Tucker is using the Austrian methodology of methodological individualism (albeit unbeknownst to him). On the other hand, Cruz is the victim of methodological nationalism, a gross intelectual error first coined by a portuguese sociologist.

@NSKinsella youtu.be/wmjOrOBf8-E?si…

A friend asked whether "interest makes sense only so long as the economy is expanding due to a handful of economic expanders: technological advances, more efficient trade, a low cost of dispute resolution, and an increasing population, but whether a shrinking population will end up causing so many defaults that lending just is no longer a profitable business, even with state money being nearly free." My tangent of a reply: I don't think this is right. Something about it seems wrong Some have a said that with a fixed money supply lending is also impossible, which I also think wrong. that said, @saifedean has an intriguing arguent I am not sure about yet. Hans Hoppe is skeptical; I got Saif to propose this to Hans when we met in Istanbul last year. But his view is something like this. I think he's trying to find a way to justify the Muslim and I guess Christian opposition to usury. Now my view is that he is right that in a sound money world, habits would change and there would be far less consumer spending and debt. You would rent an apartment, buy a cheap car, and then save up and pay cash for a house or car, no mortgages or loans. I tend to agree. Whether the phenomenon of business credit would exist, i don't know. I think there might  still be a role for business credit, taking out loans instead of selling equity (instead of selling "bonds"). Not sure. I think clearly separating the deposit-saving function from credit intermediation (which I proposed in UK Proposal for Banking Reform: Fractional-Reserve Banking versus Deposits and Loans stephankinsella.com/2010/09/britis…; see also On Coinbase, Bitcoin, Fractional-Reserve Banking, and Irregular Deposits stephankinsella.com/2022/07/on-coi…) would help end the ponzi scheme of fractional-reserve banking (including FRFB of freebankers) but whether it would disappear totally, I am not sure. But one thing most people do not seem to realize, is this. They do not fully appreciate the deeper problem with smart contracts (LIBERTARIAN ANSWER MAN: Smart Contracts stephankinsella.com/2022/02/libert…) -- which is that most loans are unsecured and therefore could not be fully automated. And even though the TTTC means that contracts are not binding promises (The Title-Transfer Theory of Contract stephankinsella.com/2024/09/tttc-w…; see also Libertarian Answer Man: Usury, Bankruptcy, Contracts stephankinsella.com/2025/09/libert…) you can also acquire a debt in various ways: 1. some "breach" of contract happens that leads to liability not planned for (another reason you can never escrow enough in a "performance bond" to ever fully secure a future title transfer, even if you could escrow some ahead of time, which in most cases you can't); or 2. you commit a tort and owe (again, unsecured) future title payments to someone. I.e. even if consumer lending disappears, and even business credit borrowing were to go away, you would always have the possibility of debts and that will have an interest aspect. In any case Saifedean's argument, IIRC, seems to be something like this: progress and civilization imply the reduction in time preference. This means a steady decline in interest rates charged for loans/debts. In a sound money world this process would continue. I think Ammous talks about this in The Bitcoin Standard, maybe Principles of Economics, and in his alternate history "novel" The Gold Standard. The idea is that, in a gold money world, it's costly to store gold. If interest rates keep declining, the storage costs are greater than the interest you can charge. For example it might cost 0.3% to store but you can only charge 0.2% interest. So if you hold gold you would lend it out for free, to save on storage costs, or even charge negative interest. For example instead of paying 0.3% storage costs you would pay someone 0.2% to borrow it. If they repay the loan later, you saved the 0.1% difference. Or something like this. I can't quite work it all out in my mind, similar to my mental block accepting [X's] argument that in a bitcoin world you cannot on average beat the rate of deflation (based on overally global GDP growth) in your investments. The thing is that this argument might work in a gold standard world but in a bitcoin world storage costs are essentially zero and I do not see interest going to zero but only asymptotically going to some low, but finite and non-zero, value. So in a BTC world you always have some positive interest you can charge for making a loan since it's always greater than the storage costs. Still working through this in my unfortunately limited brain.

🎁 SORTEIO ALMA CAFÉ × CATALÁXIA 🎁 Vamos sortear 5 exemplares de As Seis Lições, de Ludwig von Mises — uma obra essencial para compreender economia, liberdade e o papel do indivíduo numa sociedade livre. 📌 Para participar: ✔️ Seguir @AlmaCafe_PT no X ✔️ Seguir @CatalaxiaEd no X ✔️ Subscrever o Alma Café Podcast no YouTube ✔️ Gostar ❤️ e Repostar 🔁 ✔️ Comentar: “A liberdade exige consciência.” 📌 Morada de envio em Portugal 🎙️ Vencedores anunciados em direto no Alma Café Podcast #AlmaCaféPodcast #Cataláxia #Sorteio #LudwigVonMises #AsSeisLições #EscolaAustríaca #PensamentoLivre #Economia #Liberdade #IdeiasComAlma #Portugal

Our citizenship is in heaven.