Marty Chilberg

16.6K posts

Marty Chilberg

Marty Chilberg

@mchilberg

Seahawks & Bears. Red Wine preferred. Fundamentals but trade bio's. Golf when I can find the ball. Focus on IoT/Cloud/new technologies investing

Indian Wells, CA Katılım Ocak 2012
78 Takip Edilen2.3K Takipçiler
Marty Chilberg
Marty Chilberg@mchilberg·
Excellent #AI interview with Nadella. Frank discussion of the reasons for their "pause" to focus on geographies, internal development, fungibility, etc vs chasing short term market share Satya Nadella – How Microsoft thinks about AGI
Marty Chilberg@mchilberg

Nice update from #Synergy. - Cloud market growth accelerating - $MSFT $GOOG gaining share from $AMZN - #Neoclouds (GPU only) gaining relevance with $CRWV leading the pack

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Marty Chilberg
Marty Chilberg@mchilberg·
Nice update from #Synergy. - Cloud market growth accelerating - $MSFT $GOOG gaining share from $AMZN - #Neoclouds (GPU only) gaining relevance with $CRWV leading the pack
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Marty Chilberg
Marty Chilberg@mchilberg·
@firstroundmock You appear to completely ignore the bigger story. Going into this yr wisdom said bears would struggle early w/ 4 new OL starters, moving Caleb under center and installing a new more complex offense. Happened but were able to go 6-3. 2H we see how much they have grown
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FIRST ROUND MOCK
FIRST ROUND MOCK@firstroundmock·
Do you want the good news or the bad news first about Caleb Williams? First the good news… All 6 of the teams Williams has beaten this season have losing records: Cowboys 3-5-1 Raiders 2-7 Commanders 3-7 Saints 2-8 Bengals 3-6 Giants 2-8 Williams has defeated mostly the worst NFL ranked defenses (Fox Sports): No. 31 Cowboys No. 15 Raiders No. 30 Commanders No. 13 Saints No. 32 Bengals No. 29 Giants Two out of three of Williams losses this season have been against top-12 defenses (Fox Sports): • L No. 7 Lions (6-3) • L No. 12 Vikings (4-5) • L No. 26 Ravens (4-5) Notice a trend? All 6 of Williams’ wins this season have come against teams with losing records and mostly against teams with the worst defenses. Now the bad news… • Williams was 2-7 against top-25 teams at USC. • Williams is 2-9 against NFL teams with winning records in the NFL. Notice a trend? Williams tends to lose against good teams. The only two teams with winning records Williams has ever beaten in his NFL career were in 2024: Rams (10-7) and the Packers (11-6). Bears remaining 2025 schedule: Vikings (4-5) Steelers (5-4) Eagles (7-2) Packers (5-3-1) Browns (2-7) Packers (5-3-1) 49ers (6-4) Lions (6-3) 6/8 of of the Bears remaining games are against teams with winning records. Fox Sports Defensive Rankings of remaining teams on the Bears schedule: Vikings: (No. 12) Steelers: (No. 28) Eagles: (No. 18) Packers: (No. 5) Browns: (No. 2) Packers: (No. 5) 49ers: (No. 21) Lions: (No. 7) 5/8 of of the Bears remaining games are against top-12 NFL Defenses. The defenses Williams defeated in 2024 for his 5 wins that season (Fox Sports): Titans (No. 2), Rams (No. 26), Panthers (No. 32), Jaguars (No. 31), and Packers (No. 5). Only two of those teams had good defenses. Williams has only defeated 2 top-12 NFL Defenses in his entire NFL career. Conclusion: If history holds true looking at the Bears remaining schedule and defense rankings of those opponents—chances are, Caleb Williams and the Bears (6-3) win one —maybe two more games this season. Maybe—maybe not —they beat the Vikings (lost to them once already this season and they have the No. 12 defense), and maybe —maybe not —beat the Browns, because the Browns have the No. 2 defense. That will be a tough game. The Bears defeated the Titans (No. 2 defense in 2024) 24-17. I predicted the Bears would go 7-10 back on May 14: x.com/firstroundmock… Please don’t mistake Caleb Williams beating up on bad teams in college and the NFL for him being “good” like they are desperately trying to sell you on —truth be told —he hasn’t done well against the good teams. That doesn’t bode well for Williams from here on out in 2025. Current Fox (2024-2025) NFL Defensive Rankings: x.com/firstroundmock… Photo Credit: Getty Images
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Marty Chilberg
Marty Chilberg@mchilberg·
Statement makes no sense. It is illegal for company to selectively disseminate MNPI. If you receive MNPI and disseminate to others who trade on it, you are also engaging in illegal activities...even if you did not trade yourself
Dirk Haussecker@RNAiAnalyst

$ntla just for the idiots on this platform: having material non-public info only means you do not trade on that. Revealing it levels playing field. There are others that dont reveal and trade on it.

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Marty Chilberg
Marty Chilberg@mchilberg·
$NTLA cc about to begin
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Marty Chilberg
Marty Chilberg@mchilberg·
$SGMO needs to start hitting deadlines for the Nav1.7 and Prion assets. Valuation is severely discounted by a lack of human dosing for capsids and likely also causing partners to slow walk as they await some early reads. Anything prior would be pennies on dollar value
Max Power@MaxPowerNGS

@rjalagam9111 That's a tough question...I would defer to @mchilberg on a potential buyout valuation... $SGMO has a combo of multiple commercial-ready gene therapies with easy-to-quantify NPV & a vast pool of early-stage assets that are nearly impossible to value. Only a massive deal would fly.

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Marty Chilberg
Marty Chilberg@mchilberg·
#CHDI is working with many approaches to treat Huntington's. 2 yrs ago their CSO highlighted $QURE AMT-130, $SGMO TAK-686 and $VYGR. Now that Takeda has jettisoned WAVE they will hopefully update status soon
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Marty Chilberg
Marty Chilberg@mchilberg·
Stat to remember as it pertains to this year improvement: Last year Caleb had to deal with 57 unblocked pressures which led to 13 unblocked sacks. Say what you will about him getting rid of the ball faster, but those numbers are ridiculously high
Nicholas Moreano@NicholasMoreano

⬇️⬇️⬇️

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Marty Chilberg
Marty Chilberg@mchilberg·
Curious if $QURE will early terminate their Fabry trial in future. Given high probability $SGMO will be SOC, skipping P3 for accel approval will be a hard sell. Looks like they added 3rd cohort so won't know much for 2-3 years
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Marty Chilberg
Marty Chilberg@mchilberg·
$SGMO fabry data update overall very solid. - eGFR Y2 remains solidly positive at 1.747. Numerous pubs studied impact of drugs slowing rate of eGFR decline. No drugs available to compare to positive slope for now 2 yrs. One patient off ERT only real negative
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Marty Chilberg
Marty Chilberg@mchilberg·
Any $SGMO valuation inflection point primarily relies on human validation of capsids and ZF repressors and activators. Said validation is likely tied to Nav 1.7 and Prion, especially if partners are waiting for SGMO. 5/
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Marty Chilberg
Marty Chilberg@mchilberg·
$SGMO Strategic bus development efforts continue for capsid, cargo and targeted insertion of integrase. They are also trying to generate cash from their successful GT programs though interest has proven tepid to date 4/
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Marty Chilberg
Marty Chilberg@mchilberg·
$SGMO has largely replenished their collab milestone opportunity after they and partners moved away from gene and cell therapy along with most in sector. Here is a recap as we wait for validation of gene regulation and novel capsids. 1/
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Marty Chilberg
Marty Chilberg@mchilberg·
@MaxPowerNGS Exactly. GT has no EV given lack of platform/pipeline so Fabry = cash. Prion perfect target to get large valuation reset if successful: - Validate novel capsid - Validate ZFR - Probable accel appr w/good data given and disease profile and no disease modifying SOC
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Max Power
Max Power@MaxPowerNGS·
@mchilberg I think $SGMO management has played a big role in putting a #Fabry deal front and center. Investors are feeding on that energy. We should focus on the number of diverse, compelling assets this company has overall and how much potential there is in the future if we can get there.
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Max Power
Max Power@MaxPowerNGS·
What gift is Uncle Sandy going to bring $SGMO investors before earnings call?
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