chris

9.7K posts

chris

chris

@mcm1777

Kenya Katılım Mart 2009
606 Takip Edilen1.2K Takipçiler
chris
chris@mcm1777·
Rough estimates show that GoK earns between KES 70 and 120b from VAT on fuel annually, Safaricom and KPC divestiture combined raised KES 390B, take from this what you may.
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chris@mcm1777·
@ManuTrexx How does cover help? Do CBKs reserves pay for imports?
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Bobby
Bobby@ManuTrexx·
@mcm1777 credit does what credit does best, it's a band aid... they get more time to manage the KES and improve cover
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Bobby
Bobby@ManuTrexx·
you are asking the wrong questions... you can't just exit out of an obligation ju umeona the price is not going in your favor, we negotiated for premiums to help provide a solution to our FX problem you should ask >Thugge why they did not cut rates fast enough, >why they did not let the KES strengthen, >why the Treasury and Ruto did not go for tax cuts, >why there are no hedging strategies against such situations even after COVID&Russia-Ukraine happened
Wnxt@JUNX1ONG

The global shock sio shida. Anyone with half a brain knows the price increase was inevitable. The question that needs answering is why we didn't enjoy lower prices when the oil was trading at $60.

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chris@mcm1777·
@ManuTrexx The solution only became apparent when the current government came into power? Did G2G reduce demand for energy and FX or increase supply of either?
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Bobby
Bobby@ManuTrexx·
@mcm1777 🦜at the time.... high demand from the energy bill ~28perc(monthly) and from a fixed obligation in external debt servicing ~50perc of total FX demand
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chris
chris@mcm1777·
OMCs like total you mean? tradingroom.co.ke/total-signs-15…. Also what where will government succeed this time? The infrastructure for what you're mentioning exists via state entities ie Nock KPRL and KPC of the 3 only KPC is operational and only so because its a state protected monopoly.
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Armchair_Scarface
Armchair_Scarface@Ronn_wan·
@mcm1777 Markets (OMC's) can't and don't build a national reserve infrastructure...that's work of the govt.
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Armchair_Scarface@Ronn_wan·
Imagine what we spent on Talanta, we spent on building Fuel Strategic reserve , 7 node ( Mbsa-Nrb-Nyeri-nakuru-Sotik-Eldoret-kisumu) tank farm interconnected with a looped pipeline system instead of a dead spine, 1.5 Billion ltrs with 30% of tanks underground (National security)
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Ramah Nyang
Ramah Nyang@Ramah_Nyang·
[2] The VAT cut WSR announced today raises the deficit - so if we're serious about fiscal discipline, @KeTreasury should bring in a 2nd Supplementary Budget to cut overall gov't spending and that ridiculous deficit.
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Ramah Nyang
Ramah Nyang@Ramah_Nyang·
The decreed reduction in Value Added Tax on diesel, kerosene and petrol from 13% (as adjusted on April 14), to 8% (a 50% drop), raises some interesting questions.
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chris
chris@mcm1777·
If you abolish VAT what will you replace the expected revenue from? Is it possible for this government which plans to pass an expenditure increase of KES 350B to lower its budget in line with the loss of revenue from VAT, OR perhaps should the government source the entire amount from borrowing? Which is the most practical solution of these to plug the hole arising from cutting/ abolishing VAT 1. Plough back divestiture proceeds? 2. Cut expenditure? 3. Borrow?
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Cerebral Assassin
@Analystmcoastti Bro you cannot sell a profitable asset to subsidize recurrent expenditure 1. Amend VAT act to remove 16% VAT on fuel 2. Give a circular that encourages working from home for those who can to reduce consumption 3. Cut on all non essential government travel 4. Zero rate EVs
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chris
chris@mcm1777·
It has already been sold, its a better use of the funds than putting the money in an infrastructure fund which is technically having the funds sitting idle, the only viable way to manage pump prices is via tax cuts and once the cuts are made, the gap left must be filled from another source, whatever has been raised from divestiture of safcom and KPC should be used to plug the budget deficit.
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chris
chris@mcm1777·
Proceeds could be used to supplement whatever would be lost by reducing the tax element on pump prices, remember also GoK plans to increase expenditure by 350b via supplementary the money must come from somewhere, or we just accept higher pump prices and sit at a corner in silence.
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chris
chris@mcm1777·
I would rather trust markets because they operate on the principles of rewards and failure, the individual(s) who solve problems voluntary get rewarded because the market pays for their goods and services, politicians and bureaucrats rarely pay the price for the outcomes of the decisions they make.
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Armchair_Scarface
Armchair_Scarface@Ronn_wan·
@mcm1777 Trust, is a premium this govt can't afford, but it's within their responsibility and mandate bestowed on them to find solutions for Kenyans on the constitutional their swore an oath upon, that's for me and you, an undertaking that's proven monumental for their range sadly.
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chris
chris@mcm1777·
In a free market you cannot charge whatever you want indefinitely even a monopoly cannot enjoy supernormal profits forever since there are no barriers to entry new entrants will enter the market and force him to adjust prices, the issue of elasticity of demand is also a factor, what many dont realise is the likelihood of demand destruction that is likely above a certain price point.
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Atomic
Atomic@Darfur007·
@mcm1777 @Maina_Poultry Unajua kweli how greedy kenyans are ama wewe ni mgeni uku? Without price controls sahii ungekua unalipa mafuta 350 plus. The fuel industry is already very profitable with those price controls and for the controls to be placed ilikua juu people misbehaved
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Dr. Anderson N. Maina, PhD
Dr. Anderson N. Maina, PhD@Maina_Poultry·
We need to be serious as a country. Does it mean if and when the war continues for another 2 months, Kenyans will buy fuel at KSh 300-400? Why can't we ration what we have? Why not prioritize essential workers, Soko and large haulage? Ama campaign vehicles lazima zikuwe fueled?
Dr. Anderson N. Maina, PhD tweet media
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chris
chris@mcm1777·
@JUNX1ONG Who gets to decide what an essential service is? This is why capitalism is amazing, if supply is limited price goes up so whoever gets supplied is the person willing to pay, no discrimination.
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Wnxt
Wnxt@JUNX1ONG·
The rationing would just cause misery and inconvenience. Also how would it achieve lower costs? Unless useme they sell it to 'essential service providers' at a heavily subsidized price.
Dr. Anderson N. Maina, PhD@Maina_Poultry

We need to be serious as a country. Does it mean if and when the war continues for another 2 months, Kenyans will buy fuel at KSh 300-400? Why can't we ration what we have? Why not prioritize essential workers, Soko and large haulage? Ama campaign vehicles lazima zikuwe fueled?

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chris
chris@mcm1777·
@amenya_nelson The current voice( riggy G) is too strong and growing stronger by the day, I foresee a situation where ndindi joins his camp so as to remain relvant in mt kenya.
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Nelson Amenya
Nelson Amenya@amenya_nelson·
Ndindi Nyoro is acting as a lone wolf, he wants to create an alternative voice for morima effectively dividing the mountain just like Moi did hehe.
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chris
chris@mcm1777·
Yes, the only solution is to abolish the ERC formula and abolish price controls as well as lifting barriers to entry, the private sector should be allowed to operate freely throughout the fuel value chain however we all know that this isn't lucrative for politicians and bureaucrats.
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Atomic
Atomic@Darfur007·
@Maina_Poultry That is communism. In a capitalistic market you can’t regulate fuel like that yet the fuel iko.
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chris
chris@mcm1777·
What exact forex problem does G2G solve?
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chris
chris@mcm1777·
Petroleum development levy should be abolished, we pay KES 5.4/ LITRE to a non existing fund, when the need to cushion fuel prices the funds are unavailable, it makes no sense to retain the fund, even if GoK ring fenced it via a trust fund administration costs would eat up most of the revenue collected or worse, collections would be securitised to fund borrowing.
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chris
chris@mcm1777·
@mabrukix What exact forex problem does G2G solve that the FX market cannot solve? Does it take away the demand for FX for oil imports entirely or does it just delay the problem?
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mx
mx@mabrukix·
G2G was meant to solve the forex problem involving oil imports. Not to prevent all external shocks. GoK is comprised of ordinary men like you and me, not divine gods that can solve all problems. The only way to prevent external shocks is to drill and refine your own oil.
Mbabz@Kalasinga_

The question that @EPRA_KE needs to answer. We have always been told the purpose of G2G is to cushion us from external shocks. Now our fuel has gone up because of the war Why did our fuel prices not go down when global fuel prices were at an all time low last year?

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chris
chris@mcm1777·
@kenyanwalstreet Market cost set via a fixed pricing formula is an oxymoron
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Kenyan Wall Street
Kenyan Wall Street@kenyanwalstreet·
The government is absorbing KSh 108.10 per litre on kerosene through the Petroleum Development Levy Fund, keeping the pump price at KSh 152.78 against a true market cost of approximately KSh 260.88. Without the subsidy, the price would have nearly doubled, hitting low-income households hardest.
Kenyan Wall Street tweet media
Kenyan Wall Street@kenyanwalstreet

🚨𝐅𝐮𝐞𝐥 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐞 Fuel prices rose in the April–May 2026 cycle after EPRA passed on sharply higher landed costs driven by the Middle East supply crisis. ▸ Super petrol up KSh 28.69 to KSh 206.97 per litre ▸ Diesel up KSh 40.30 to KSh 206.84 per litre ▸ Kerosene unchanged at KSh 152.78

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