Cuz We Can

@devon_lulu @spacanpanman You have Starlink in your private plane? Which model do you own?

@spacanpanman I can tell you from experience that Starlink is in almost all Privately owned aircraft. $GOGO put out such a terrible product before Galileo it destroyed them. Starlink or bust.

$ASTS: Starlink lists its competitors: - T-Mobile $TMUS 😂 - AT&T $T - Verizon $VZ - Amazon $AMZN - AST SpaceMobile $ASTS

@Signal8Ai @StockMKTNewz They will need to get their yet built aviation antenna FDA, et al approved and have installers apply for STCs. It will take at least 1 1/2 years before live. The antenna is also quite large, not really suitable for most private jets, Gogo's market.

@StockMKTNewz 241 satellites in orbit. 3,236 planned. $AMZN doing 1 Gbps down, 400 Mbps up from a single antenna. someone check on $GOGO

Amazon Leo $AMZN just posted this: “Introducing the Amazon Leo Aviation Antenna. Delivering speeds up to 1 Gbps downlink and 400 Mbps uplink from a single antenna – it's simple enough to install in a single day, and powerful enough to support an entire cabin full of streaming, browsing, working and more

@jamalmashburn Watching the tourney. Do this every year, for decades. You are the best analyst I have seen during these many years. The bad news? You know so much about all levels of the game, I feel so bb uneducated when you do the analysis. Keep doing what you are doing.

$gogo stocktitan.net/sec-filings/GO….

$gogo ainonline.com/aviation-news/…

@internpierre @aakashgupta Hope they fit you.

@mdmourges @aakashgupta Is $GOGO giving you knee pads to pitch them?

Starlink just told you the entire in-flight connectivity market is repricing and nobody’s talking about the competitive carnage. 2,500 aircraft is impressive. What’s more impressive is what this did to the incumbents. Gogo’s stock is down 70% from its 2022 peak. William Blair just downgraded them, citing “intense Starlink competition” and risk that NetJets defects. The company panic-acquired Satcom Direct for $636M last year to consolidate before SpaceX takes more share. Viasat’s stock plummeted 90% from 2019 to 2023 as investors priced in the Starlink threat. The math shows why incumbents can’t compete. Starlink charges airlines roughly $25,000/month for unlimited data on commercial aircraft. In business aviation, they slashed pricing from $25,000/month to $10,000/month unlimited. Gogo’s comparable offering? $1,900/month for 1GB of data. Starlink offers 20GB for $2,000. That’s a 20x improvement in price-per-gigabyte while delivering faster speeds and lower latency. SpaceX can do this because they’re not actually in the aviation connectivity business. They’re in the constellation utilization business. Every plane that connects is marginal revenue on satellites that are already orbiting, launched on rockets SpaceX already owns. Starlink generated $8.2 billion in 2024 revenue. Aviation is a rounding error that happens to destroy competitors’ entire business models. This is the pattern SpaceX runs everywhere. Maritime? Same playbook. Rural broadband? Same playback. They don’t enter markets to compete. They enter markets to make the existing competitive structure irrelevant. Gogo and Viasat are losing to vertical integration so complete that the unit economics don’t even operate in the same universe.

@internpierre @aakashgupta No, but feel free to borrow the ones Newsome has to offer you.

@internpierre @aakashgupta You mean their 5g product? Its as fast as what most get at home.

@mdmourges @aakashgupta GOGO / Intelsat same shitty product regardless of who own it / is running it the point still stands

@internpierre @aakashgupta Gogo doesnt do commercial jets.

@aakashgupta GOGO was a terrible service to being with and Starlink (and pretty much everything else blows it out of the water). I’d assume that given the fact that you can run BBG or stream tv with no issue on Starlink it’ll be standard on most commercial aircraft in the next few years $GOGO

@scbower Really brave of them. When an analyst just follows everyone else, a month late, what good are they?

Morgan Stanley cuts $GOGO to $8

@Bprew7 Who knows. Lets see if this is a real thing.

@mdmourges Wild... Are they actually reentering commercial space? Idk what to make of that at all.

Just glanced at $gogo's business update at EOY '25, put out a few days ago. 5G official, 300 Galileo's shipped to 85% named customers, sounds good at first glance. But Losing Netjets domestically and other known fleet losses means ATG probably fairly rapidly drops another 700 AOL

@Bprew7 Was searching the web and found this. When you click on the link it had, it said it couldn't be found. Interesting, right?

Given the amount of work I put into that little company, I'll likely follow its progress for a long time. But for now, man, they look to be in a tough spot with many of the levers they looked to pull to springboard 5G/Galileo having slipped to SL.

@Bprew7 Yeah, I have a Pacer acct so I have access to the filing. Its so funny how SS folks had said they didn't really know or chat about the Qualcomm wedge pattern ATG idea, which is what SS is based on, but they emailed each other so many times about it and showed concern.

@mdmourges You seem to know a good deal more about that ongoing situation than I. Thanks for your comments on that topic, helpful.

@Bprew7 Real question is can Gogo "broadband service" grow? For the 2025, it will be about $285m of the $900m total guide for Gogo. The $285m is strictly 3g/old tech, no 5g/Leo. Will ARPU be higher with 5g/Leo? Perhaps. So, the question is, tot rev for all biz higher in 2026? Lets see

@Bprew7 Not sure your 700 lost tails is right, could be. Given they drove record FCF and EBITDA for the 1st 3qs, even with a loss of about 1k AOL year over year, its clear they have made structural changes to their finances. And remember, not everyone, especially in Europe is a Musk fan.

@mustang_cap23 Flyx had very limited capital to add planes.

@mdmourges Pulled from Part 135 filings. SL can do a lot of Citations now. Per last call, $flyx is divesting underperforming planes and adding Challengers, XLS, and CJ3s -- 2/3 can take on SL right now

$flyx (5th largest domestic operator) doubling on Starlink partnership (fleet install + 3P MRO) and $gogo is +12% bc of Fidelity? Lol

@W_DC_ @Bprew7 And if all the large MROs have SL capability now, why does anyone care about Flyx who will likely install less than 10 SL units in 2026?

@mdmourges @Bprew7 I don't want to sound disrespectful, but I don't think you understand how any of this works. SL works with or will work with all the MROs, all the fleets will have line fit with all the OEMs....

This represents another $gogo fleet customer lost to Starlink plus expansion of SL installation capacity effectively. FlyExclusive moves to Starlink for fleet WiFi share.google/OOat9t5mR4JUNC…

@W_DC_ @Bprew7 I understand how it works. The question is why would all large domestic MROs develop Galileo STCs on their own dime?

@W_DC_ @Bprew7 Are you suggesting 60mb is not workable for a 4-6 person cabin?