meech

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meech

meech

@meeeeechh

Katılım Mayıs 2021
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goodalexander
goodalexander@goodalexander·
The dollar has an infinite supply and is run by devs who print it every time something remotely bad happens If you try to leave the country with gold when it matters, you won’t be able to The economy is technological and runs on the Internet Crypto market cap will go to $10T
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CHURRASCO SAUDADE
CHURRASCO SAUDADE@churrascooooo·
im prepared, i dont give a fuck, i dont have a lot of money, i live in a jr 1 bedroom apartment, i have a fake job, my tax dollars all go to criminals from third world countries, there are schizo homeless everywhere, everything is expensive as fuck, all the houses are overvalued, texas is full of indians, my hometown is majority latino, the food is fake, the government is being run from tel aviv, the only way to make money is online prostitution, all cars suck, you cant get a decent meal anywhere, the pussy has been paywalled, analytics ruined sports, they dont make good movies anymore, the internet is just various forms of linkedin, video games suck, the quality of everything is terrible, books suck, minorities are constantly on speaker phone, the TSA lines are long, everywhere smells like weed, women bring their dogs everywhere, the garlic isnt as strong as it used to be, everywhere is flooded with LED lights... and on top of all of that, everyday i have to hear some SILICON VALLEY FAGGOT write SPOOKY CAPESHIT about "the dangers of AI" like i have ANYTHING TO LOSE
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goodalexander
goodalexander@goodalexander·
lessons in the cryptocurrency industry
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Lucas Sacerdote🔋
Lucas Sacerdote🔋@LucasSacerdote_·
Great primer on Fertilizers by @freidberg in @theallinpod (and the war’s implications for $AGRO): - 35% of the world’s fertilizers goes through the Straight of Hormuz. - China is the swing producer, with 15% of the worlds production. They just shut down exports. - At current Urea prices, planting $CORN in the US is unprofitable. AND China stopped importing corn from the US, keeping its price artificially low. US farmers in a lot of pain. - KEY: Fixing a fertilizer facility that has broken takes 3-5 years! (What happened in the middle east). Basically, the largest facility of Urea in the world will be out for multiple years. And constructing one from scratch takes about 7 years! - There is no possible excess production, every facility runs 24/7/365. With a supply shock, the only way to balance the market is to destroy demand through price spikes. Not covered on the video but worth mentioning: - Russia stopped its Ammonia exports (previous step to turn it into Urea) - Australia’s largest Urea facility is down till ~June bc of repairs. - All of Bangladesh’s fertilizer plants are fully shut Bc of supply shock and deficit in natural gas. - Financial Times reporting Urea prices up to $800/ton. Not sure where fertilizer prices normalize, but seems likely that: - They can stay higher for longer due to long lead times of bringing capacity online. - No clear top in the short term due to incredible supply/demand imbalance. - Second derivative effects will lead to higher agricultural commodity prices. $AGRO will be a beneficiary of all this. With their 1.3M metric tonnes of Urea production facility, and >250,000 acres of farmland, they will benefit from both: fertilizer price increases, and commodities prices increases. (Im always asked the same question, so clarifying it again: $AGRO has fixed production costs till end of 2027 for fertilizer. ~$200/ton. Long term contracted gas supply agreements from Argentina’s Vaca Muerta gas reservoir. Not affected by price increases in oil/gas. It all flows down directly to their margin). If interested in $AGRO, please join the X community!
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JOLLY DINGER
JOLLY DINGER@JollyDinger·
instead of continuing to trade into guaranteed edge erosion (thats called gambling), you gotta build the trading system that will replace you me and the jollydinger.com/bullorbear-one… beta testers been cooking the last 3 weeks. mebbe we let a few more ppl in but my current testing runs show we will be able to keep this more exclusive than i previously thought. BOB
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fooo
fooo@bitcoinpanda69·
Imagine you spend your entire youth and prime chasing only money at the expense of adventure, passion, family, friends, meaning and creative pursuits then the day you hit your number goal? quantum computing breaks money
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sun runner
sun runner@0xSunRun·
Markets are cyclical: For crypto, 2017 - 2021 was the era of believing in something. You didn't have to play every day tactically because there were fundamental breakthroughs, and liquidity was washing in. A rising tide lifted all boats - everyone who was positioned wins. What followed was the era of extraction, cynicism, nihlism, and depression from 2021 to 2025 post LUNA/FTX. The VC unlocks led to a tsunami of tokens hitting markets with no structural bid. If you weren't defensive and aggressively protecting your bags/positions, you lost miserably. 2026 - 2030 will be the era of believing in something again.
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CryptoCondom
CryptoCondom@crypto_condom·
There’s always a bull market somewhere. $agro FA ftw 🤝
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CryptoCondom@crypto_condom

I bought a lot of Sept 2026 calls for $AGRO. Most people dont understand $AGRO is a @tether proxy...it is a Tether owned company with 74% controlling interest. Earnings are after the bell...the first after their recent M&A for Profertil, LatAM's largest urea producer. Chart looks great. Plenty of theta to let this benefit from second order effects of the recent Hormez closure. 🔖Full DD in the research Discord.

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BDB (SAYLOR MODE)
BDB (SAYLOR MODE)@BigDickBull69·
If you’re above 15% bodyfat and have ‘hobbies’ literally kill yourself
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ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq
ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq@donnelly_brent·
The consensus in early March was the war is a fade because geopolitics is always a fade. I wrote a piece titled: "am/FX: Too Many Faders" on March 2 outlining why it was way too early to fade an escalating conflict with no clear offramps. Now, the consensus is that this is an escalating conflict with no clear offramps. I just squared all equity shorts. Could markets crash from here? Yes. Is the risk/reward for shorts attractive good down here at midday on Friday? No. Look at day of the week price changes during this war (overlayed with an index of Trump headline dovishness).
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BDB (SAYLOR MODE)
BDB (SAYLOR MODE)@BigDickBull69·
Sacks Fired War Escalation Bob Lax Release White Whale Divorced ANYTHING Can Happen In March
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Le Shrub🌳
Le Shrub🌳@agnostoxxx·
Trump pausing the "period of energy plant destruction" in Iran by 10 days is NOT a TACO, but more of a NACHO: Not Actually Changing Hormuz Opening
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CryptoCondom
CryptoCondom@crypto_condom·
Saturday is my mother's birthday. She is the strongest woman I know. She raised 3 smol pepes by herself after being widowed at 32. She worked two jobs for much of my childhood to always give us what we needed, if not what we wanted. This year, her birthday gift is a digital album of about 500 old 35mm slides from before her husband and daughter died. With the help of @gemini, I have been able to scan, upload & enhance all the slides so that they were photorealistic and color corrected. It is mind blowing what good AI can do if you use it well. 🍌
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thiccy
thiccy@thiccyth0t·
research is now so commoditized that the game is less about esoteric information and more about execution, sizing, and trade expression crypto traders may have the best discretionary instincts in the world rn because of how many market cycle reps they've crammed in the past yrs
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jeetsbyNav
jeetsbyNav@jeetsbyNav·
What do you mean buying on chain coins with insider info doesn’t translate to being an effective commodities perpetuals trader
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dinosaur
dinosaur@dinosaurs1969·
in the 1700s they would’ve executed this guy for this
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Lucas Sacerdote🔋
Lucas Sacerdote🔋@LucasSacerdote_·
$AGRO Few truly understand the second derivative effects of whats going on worldwide imo. China restricting fertilizer exports now. Urea climbing to $700/tonne Expect agriculture commodity prices to start rising, after over a decade of being excruciatingly low. There are few pockets where one can protect itself from this. With recent threats from Trump about putting maximum prices for fertilizers… owning US stocks in this particular sector, at this particular time, doesn’t sit right with me. Too important for society, and Trump is not the most free market president out there. Javier Milei in Argentina is. And Argentinian stocks are still trading at a HUGE discount. Fertilizer prices going ⬆️ Fertilizer supply going ⬇️ Agriculture supply going ⬇️ Agriculture prices going ⬆️ The winners are those whose supply is not affected. At current Urea prices, $AGRO does $650M in EBITDA per year, with a cash cost of ~$180-190/tonne, selling for $700 and with a 1.3M tonnes capacity. And expect profitability from their agricultural business, which has been dormant (as the whole industry) for almost a decade…
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unusual_whales@unusual_whales

China has restricted fertiliser exports, per Reuters

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meech
meech@meeeeechh·
$AGRO input costs are largely fixed - gas is ~60% of urea production cost and they have firm contracts locked through end of 2027, supplied by Argentina's booming Vaca Muerta shale basin. Meanwhile urea prices are up 30-40% from the Hormuz disruption. That delta goes straight to EBITDA. ~1.1M tons of 2026 production is still unpriced. And longer term, management is evaluating a full plant duplication to 2x capacity.
Peter Zeihan@PeterZeihan

The real problem is nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are, as a rule, derived from oil-based naphtha or natural gas. Currently, Qatar takes natural gas produced at its South Pars gas field, which was recently struck by Iran, to make ammonia and convert it into urea. Urea is a natural gas-based fertilizer made primarily of nitrogen that you can spread in physical form, whether pellets or ground powder. This one facility in Qatar is responsible for about 11% of global urea production, the primary method that people use to apply nitrogen. Collectively, the Persian Gulf is responsible for between 30 and 35% of global ammonia production. And all of that has now gone to zero. Now, of the three primary fertilizer nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium), nitrogen is the one I am least concerned with in the short term, because it can be derived from either natural gas itself or oil. Here in the United States, we are a net oil exporter, have scads of natural gas, and can produce pretty much all the nitrogen we need. But now, due to recent attacks on Persian Gulf infrastructure, a large majority of the globe cannot do the same. In the short term - in the U.S. - we're likely to avoid massive shortages of nitrogen-based fertilizers. Yes, prices will rise, but we won't have actual shortages. But if you fast forward one, two, three, ten, or twenty years, the rest of the world will be in chronic nitrogen deficit. That's before you consider shortages of the other materials that are likely to manifest in the years to come. So, prepare for an environment where global food production stalls...and then crashes. #agriculture #farming #fertilizer #geopolitics

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