"Doctor" • Precise Market Analysis

In ~5 hours GLOBEX will reopen and the first post OPEX day since the war in the middle east started officially begins. 🚩 Companies CEOs, especially airline ones, are already making plans to withstand a 170$+ oil price spike and a elevated price till 2027. 🚩 Shortages of diesel and gasoline are starting to make headlines from Australia, to Vietnam and Slovenia. 🚩 A liquidity crisis is already crippling the GCC financial system (capital flight, little USD inflow from oil sales and GCC currencies tightly pegged to USD under selling/hedging pressure) with significant impact on gold, silver, US Treasuries and Govies across the globe 🚩 there has been virtually no oil demand destruction so far because of SPR releases and US government sponsored futures market manipulation. The 10mbd oil supply gap is estimated can be closed with oil north of 150$, some experts already warned of a potential equilibrium at 220$. Similar to oil collapsing to a negative price during Covid, I expect the opposite to happen this time around. The spike will be sudden, swift, overshoot to then stabilise with Oil volatility increasing significantly in the process before it comes down again. As my subscribers know, I positioned myself accordingly to profit in case my expectation is proven right. 🚩 Shortage of Natural Gas is according to my estimate even greater, relatively speaking, compared to crude oil and yet there is barely any broad discussion on social or mainstream media. Natural gas is famous to spike even more aggressively and sharply in case of disruptions. We barely saw anything of this sort yet but I suggest to keep an eye on this too All in all, the chorus warning of a shock worse than covid is becoming larger with every passing day the more people realise this war in the middle east isn’t likely to suddenly end anytime soon. Although, differently from covid, I don’t expect a broad stock market crash since there are already obvious winner like oil and oil & gas exploration companies. Furthermore, I don’t think a high oil price will be enough to prick the AI bubble because the credit feeding it remains abundant even if Private Credit is starting to struggle. I know the market is starting to price FED and ECB rate hikes, but we know they will instead cut aggressively if the financial crisis becomes destabilising for the global financial system. This will always be central banks real focus, not inflation or full employment. There are still 8 days before Q1 end andI won’t be surprised if we will see the market holding up for one more week before unraveling, however the risks are mounting and some large investors might decide to stop sticking with the herd and de-risk ahead of time. Furthermore, we know the US administration will do everything in its power to avoid a market panic. Nevertheless, the week ahead will be interesting.