Mark Fleming

A New Year’s resolution! The #REconomy Podcast™: What Will it Take for the Housing Market to Rebalance? blog.firstam.com/economics/the-…

Welcome to the fascinating world of industrial real estate! And there's more to it than just data centers. Listen to me "waxing on" about the absorption dynamics :-) with my colleagues @odetakushi and @XanderSnyderX in the REconomy Podcast™: blog.firstam.com/reconomy-podca…

A great point made by @XanderSnyderX - even if the Fed cuts rates there is, unfortunately, no guarantee that "long-end" rates will follow. But, if done for the right reasons, rate cuts can't hurt!

And CME odds of 25bps is over 90% now compared to 75% yesterday. But pick your day and economic release as far as what the market thinks the Fed will do!

This week in @Compass Intelligence weekly housing market data: Everyone knows that the price pressure is on. Did you know that have been gradually FEWER new listings each week? Sellers are staying away. That implies a cap on inventory growth for the rest of the year. 1/6

We are at the beginning of a new "more normal" housing market, but this time the reasons for growth will be different. Read on to find out more from @odetakushi : Housing Market Turning Point: Setting the Stage for a New Real Estate Cycle blog.firstam.com/economics/hous…

If only we could build our way out of the housing shortage! In this episode of #REconomy summer school we look at potential solutions... and since its hip to be square.... one solution may be the old-school Sears and Roebuck way! blog.firstam.com/reconomy-podca…

To rent or to own... the perennial question! But right now, if you are viewing this as a purely financial decision, its better to rent in many markets! See more and the details by market in the latest from my colleague @odetakushi #FirstAmEcon blog.firstam.com/economics/its-…

Housing starts rose slightly to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.321 million, coming in just above the consensus expectation of 1.3 million. The 4.6% monthly increase was driven by a sharp 31% rise in the volatile multifamily sector, while single-family starts declined by 4.6%. Permits, a leading indicator of future construction, came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.397 million—also beating the consensus expectation of 1.387 million. The story was similar for permits: multifamily activity rose 8.1%, while single-family permits fell 3.7%. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline in single-family permitting. The pullback reflects ongoing affordability challenges, rising material costs and tariff-related uncertainties, elevated new home supply, and growing competition from the resale market. The continued decline in single-family permits, combined with weakened builder sentiment, points to a slowdown in future single-family construction. Completions matter because they provide immediate relief to a supply-constrained market. Unfortunately, single-family completions fell 12.5% from last month and 15.5% from a year ago, further limiting additions to the housing stock.

In this episode of The REconomy Podcast™ Summer School series we take an in-depth look at the supply side of the housing market and the challenges limiting builders’ efforts to build more homes. blog.firstam.com/reconomy-podca…

Since 2019, nearly nine in 10 newly cost-burdened homeowners have been either younger adults entering the market or seniors aging in place. Read more about the rise in housing cost burden in our latest analysis. The analysis includes interactive dashboards, so that you can check out the number and share of households that are cost burdened in your market! blog.firstam.com/economics/hous…

Life happens! But that means home selling and buying does too (regardless of rates). In this summer school episode of #REconomy... we break it all down! - Why Life Events Still Drive Home-Buying Demand Despite Affordability Challenges. blog.firstam.com/reconomy-podca…

Inspired by Planet Money's summer school series, we are now doing our own, second year, of REconomy summer school. Ever wonder what a headship rate is? Why housing economics is often more about demographics? Aaaaaand, now you can "watch" the podcast too! blog.firstam.com/reconomy-podca…

I can 't resist a good Queen/Bowie reference. Check out the latest from @SWilliamsonEcon. Under Pressure: Rising Homeownership Costs Squeeze Housing Affordability blog.firstam.com/economics/unde…

My colleague @XanderSnyderX has a nice summary below of our latest blog post on affordability!

While builders benefit from a chronic housing shortage made worse by the “seller’s strike”, they still face supply-side challenges making it difficult to scale up construction to just keep up with growing shelter demand let alone reduce the overall housing stock supply debt.

then new-home sales is down to the same levels as the early 1990s, about 0.5%, and well below the long-run average of 0.7%. If new-home sales were tracking at the long-run average percentage of total households, then the pace of new-home sales would be almost 950,000!

New home sales are improving but well below what’s needed, increasing 1.8% on a monthly basis to 676,000, slightly below the consensus estimate which was predicated on the fact that mortgage rates were declining in February, which is usually a boost to new-home sales.