MG Gaskin
24.1K posts
MG Gaskin
@mgcoverz
Father, retired comedian, and golfer. Proud Alumni of Newberry College! Go Gamecocks! Professional Sports Handicapper
Katılım Aralık 2009
2.1K Takip Edilen2.2K Takipçiler
2-2 Split with MLB totals. YTD now now 48-36 +8.4 units (Notice difference between models. Totals laying -110 at 57% lower ROI than sides model only hitting 53%) #sportsbetting #gamblingx
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Tough beat with Minnesota yesterday. Model YTD now 89-78 +22.48 units #sportsbetting #gamblingx
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Model vs Market 5/29/26
Can one NFL stat predict totals?
I built a model to find out.
#sportsbetting #gamblingx
youtu.be/yIIufj8HaqY?si…
YouTube
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@mgcoverz Model vs the market! What I’ve learned so far from you is to be specific on which games to play. I don’t have to play ALL of them 😂😂 Keep teaching kind sir!
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Only one play via model and we break the skid, Houston +120 is a winner. YTD now 88-76 +23.28! #sportsbetting #gamblingx
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Most betting models make the same mistake:
They average everything.
Today’s Model vs Market breaks down why averaging MLB totals may actually hurt variance — and how a new “bucket” approach changed the results.
New episode live!
#sportsbetting #gamblingx
youtube.com/watch?v=sKfCL1…
YouTube
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No plays via model today. Will look at adjust here soon! YTD still 87-76 +22.08 units. #sportsbetting #gamblingx
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Solid and True! Can you profit long term? that's the only distinction.
Rob Pizzola@robpizzola
What I love most about sports betting is that there's no hiding. You can debate sports endlessly with anyone but at the end of the day the person who knows ball is the person making money betting it. Plain and simple. Everyone gets to test their opinions against the market and find out exactly what they're worth. Love that.
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Making some adjustments to calculating totals lines. Today 4-1 one under pending. Yesterday, 5-2 with adjustments. #sportsbetting #gamblingx
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New substack is up! Are Sportsbooks Now Overvaluing MLB Unders? #sportsbetting #gamblingx open.substack.com/pub/underdogsn…
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First significant down turn of the season for MLB model. 5 units in 3 days. YTD now 87-76 +22.08. Crazy but ROi for may is still 22%! #sportsbetting #gamblingx
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Sportsbooks adjusted!
Most bettors never realize this happens in real time.
Today’s Model vs Market breaks down:
• Why ROI matters more than win %
• How markets become more efficient
• Why models must evolve to survive
New episode live now.
youtube.com/watch?v=2xGjzL…
YouTube
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Totals go 5-5...bad beat with Seattle/Athletics game. YTD now 41-26 61 % +12.4 units #sportsbetting #gamblingx
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29% roi going into today and definitely due to regress. Only play was Tampa RL. YTD now 87-74 +24.08 units! #sportsbetting #gamblingx
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New substack is up! Using Losing Bets to Build a Better Model #sportsbetting #gamblingx open.substack.com/pub/underdogsn…
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Most sports bettors think the spread is the most important part of NFL & NBA betting.
Statistically… it often doesn’t matter.
• Why spreads are overrated
• Why moneyline dogs may have value
• MLB model now +25.8u
• Why low-scoring MLB helps dogs
tinyurl.com/4x7xu5e
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@BFawkes22 @BetMGM IF line is 9.5 or less, teams that win and cover or cover and win outright is 80%. So in essence, the spread is irrelevant is 20% of the games (games with spreads of 9.5 or less)
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The @BetMGM ladder bettor had $350,000 on the Thunder to cover various numbers.
He goes 0-for-6:
➡️$20,000 on OKC +1.5 (-105)❌
➡️$20,000 on OKC +2.5 (-118)❌
➡️$35,000 on OKC +3.5 (-130)❌
➡️$50,000 on OKC +4.5 (-150)❌
➡️$75,000 on OKC +5.5 (-160)❌
➡️$150,000 on OKC +6.5 (-185)❌
Final score: Spurs 103, Thunder 82
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