Michael Kugelman

Pakistan has led from the front, from beginning to end, on several weeks of frenetic, high-stakes regional facilitation efforts. Why and how was Pakistan, of all countries, able to occupy this prominent role? This week ⁦@ForeignPolicy⁩: foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/08/pak…

I’m quoted by ⁦@ElianPeltier⁩ on why Pakistan’s facilitation efforts are such a large feather in the cap for its diplomacy-and on how it used several unconventional diplomatic tactics to help it gain the White House’s trust and support. nytimes.com/2026/04/08/wor…

I spoke to ⁦@CNBC⁩ last night about Pakistani facilitation and mediation efforts on the Iran war, and the key role that China has started to play and could continue to play in the coming days. Beijing has more leverage over Iran than does Pakistan. cnbc.com/video/2026/04/…

Pakistan had both the capacity to assume the role of facilitator and the will to proactively position itself as one, writes @michaelkugelman. foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/08/pak…

The Islamabad courthouse was attacked in November by a breakaway TTP faction. A Shia mosque in Islamabad was bombed by IS-K in Feb. These attacks have been extremely rare in Islamabad in recent years. But Islamabad isn’t immune. So expect massive security measures to be in place.

Pakistan & Afgh have been fighting along their border for several weeks. But China-mediated talks concluded yesterday w/pledges to keep talking and not escalate. This will reduce overall security risks, including in Islamabad. That said, terror risks (esp IS-K & TTP) are real.

Re security for the Islamabad talks: The city’s much safer than pre-2014, even amid a resurgence of terror in Pak since the Taliban retook power in Afg (attacks mainly target security forces in KPK & Balochistan). There’s also an overlooked issue that may ease security concerns:

Tonight, Pakistan achieved one of its biggest diplomatic wins in years. It also defied many skeptics and naysayers that didn’t think it had the capacity to pull off such a complex, high stakes feat. But what matters the most is it helped avert a potential catastrophe in Iran.

This may be more of a pressure tactic than a genuine threat. Pakistan badly wants to avoid getting drawn into the war. It doesn’t want to have to make the decision of whether to invoke the pact or not. This is another reason why it’s heavily involved in facilitation efforts.

Also, Pakistan had a strong incentive to sign up for a role that many others wouldn’t want. It is especially vulnerable to the conflict’s effects, it doesn’t want to get dragged into the conflict & has strategic interests in showcasing its agency as an influential regional actor.

Why has Pakistan remained front & center in a high stakes and high risk US-Iran peace facilitation effort? Strong ties w/all key players, trust from the White House, ongoing direct engagements w/Iran, and buy in from Pak ally China (it has more leverage over Iran than does Pak).

I joined ⁦@alisalmanwords⁩ & ⁦@kaiserbengali⁩ on ⁦@AJInsideStory⁩ to discuss the economic and energy costs of the war in Iran for Pakistan. I discussed why Pak is especially vulnerable but also a key silver lining—its solar power surge. youtube.com/watch?v=aIlzYd…

Nepal’s new government is moving quickly to pursue governance and anti corruption reforms. But by going on the offensive so quickly, it risks confrontation with an old guard of elites that could imperil its policy agenda. This week ⁦@ForeignPolicy⁩: foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/01/nep…

The China-Pakistan Five Point initiative signals Beijing’s endorsement of the US-Iran peace process that Islamabad has sought to advance, but it’s also likely a reflection of Pakistan’s view that China needs to be brought in to the fold to get more buy-in from the Iranians.

Pakistan is the rare country that has warm ties w/US & Iran but also the GCC states, Turkey & China. Heck, its ties w/Russia are good too. This may not bring piece to the Mideast, but it gives Pakistan diplomatic alignments that line up well to position itself as a facilitator.

Pakistan’s foreign minister has announced Islamabad is prepared to host and facilitate U.S.-Iran talks within the next few days. This is the most promising development to date in efforts to end the war.

“there’s no reason to believe India has angled to be a mediator. Even if it had an interest in playing such a role, its cautious approach to diplomacy suggests it wouldn’t do so unless formally requested by the warring parties.” 1/3

In @timesofindia, I argue that Pakistan’s extended geopolitical moment in the sun hasn’t diminished India’s own global standing, including in the Mideast—where it would stand to benefit from a new geoeconomic architecture that could emerge post-conflict. timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/sunday-ti…

But this govt has its work cut out for it. The old guard-the political & economic elite-won’t respond well to this new politics that could imperil its interests that have long benefited from the status quo. The govt will need to be careful not to unite its rivals against it.

In Nepal, a younger generation has taken political power. And this generational shift in politics has a large public mandate: The new govt won elections in a landslide. A milestone moment for a country where a small group of old parties and leaders have long dominated politics.

It’s getting overlooked w/everything else going on, but keep an eye on Nepal. A new govt led by a 35-year-old former rapper took office yesterday. And one of its first moves, led by the home minister, a 38-year-old former DJ, was to arrest the PM ousted in last year’s protests.