Mick Lees

@_JIBBER_JABBER_ Surely it depends on the circumstances. Had a Trixie with Old Park Star, Honesty Policy and Jango Baie at pre-Xmas prices. £18K was the payout but took £633 as Lost confidence in Gordo horses and came round to Gaelic for the Gold Cup. Each bet is different 🤷‍♂️

Good, sensible, advice from Ollie 👇

@BookiesFoe Not if Impaire er Passe wins 😂

EMBARRASSING

@MyGolfSpy @malbongolf Hard NO

I gotta know…💬 Would you wear Jason’s @malbongolf vest? I’ll go first. Hell yeah.

@AtTheRaces Ever thought of including the time of the race as well as the name !!!

"Honeyball will fancy his chances of revenge now on spring terrain and a left-handed track"

The politics involved in knife crime is shameful.I set up a youth charity 2008/16 dealing with behaviour including knife crime till funding ran out.I am a retired police inspector and and can assure people enforcement is not the answer.Education and mentoring is #bbcnews

@_JIBBER_JABBER_ Sadly I’m leaning towards Gorgeous Tom who isn’t in your top six so that’s a worry as I really rate your analysis, but 🙏😂

@_JIBBER_JABBER_ Yep have you bang right on Iroko

Some thoughts on IROKO (12/1) for the Grand National… Quite a few people seem to like Iroko for this year’s Grand National and, on the face of it, I can understand why. He is only 8. He ran a very respectable race to finish fourth in last year’s National. He is trained by a yard that has clearly had this race in mind for a long time. And he has the kind of profile that makes punters think there could still be a big one in him. So I wanted to go through him properly and see whether the case for him is actually as strong as it looks. Short answer: I can absolutely see why he is popular… …but the more I look at him, the more I come back to the same conclusion: 👉 he looks much more likely to run another solid race than he does to actually win it. Let’s walk through it. 1️⃣ The basic profile Trainer: Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero Age: 8 Owner: JP McManus Official Rating: 156 Best recent piece of National evidence: 4th in the 2025 Grand National, beaten 7½ lengths Straight away, that gives him obvious appeal. He is the right age for the modern National. He has already shown he handles the fences. He has already shown he stays the trip. And unlike plenty in this field, there is no guesswork about whether Aintree suits him. That is the positive case in a nutshell. And it is a fair one. But there is a difference between: 👉 having a solid case to run well and 👉 having a solid case to win at the prices. That is where I think it gets more interesting. 2️⃣ Last year’s National run — solid, admirable, but perhaps slightly over-romanticised Let’s start with the obvious positive. He ran very well in the race last year. Fourth of 34, beaten 7½ lengths, first home of the British-trained runners, and he stayed on strongly from off the pace after finding himself with plenty to do. That was a good run. No question. In many ways, it was exactly the sort of run connections would have wanted from a 7-year-old having his first go at the race. He showed: - he stays - he handles the fences - he copes with the occasion - and he can still be competitive in the closing stages So I do not want to downplay that. But I do think there is a danger that people are now treating that run as if it automatically makes him the answer this year. And I am not sure it does. Because when you dig into it a little more closely, last year’s run was commendable rather than devastating. He was never really in a position where you came away thinking: 👉 “that should have been his” He stayed on well, yes. But he was also some way back turning for home, pecked at second Valentine’s, and while he finished off well enough, he still ended up beaten 7½ lengths. That is not a criticism. It is just important to be accurate. He ran a very good race. But he did not run a race that screamed he was miles ahead of his mark and desperately unlucky not to win. 3️⃣ The big trend negative — he is no longer a debutant This is one of the biggest things for me. We know that 14 of the last 16 winners were making their Grand National debut. That is not a stat I would ever treat as an absolute rule on its own, but it does matter. Why? Because the modern National is no longer the old-fashioned survival test it once was. The changes to the fences and the shape of the race now mean that classier, younger, more progressive horses can cope with it first time. That has shifted the race away from old-school “specialists” and more towards horses arriving with the right mix of class, stamina and improvement. Last year, Iroko fitted that kind of angle very nicely. This year, he does not. Now he is a horse returning for another crack, off a higher mark, having already shown his hand. So one of his biggest positives from 2025 — being an unexposed 7-year-old debutant with a touch of upside — has now gone. And I do think that matters. 4️⃣ The handicap angle — 5lb higher and probably not thrown in This is another key point. He ran off 152 in last year’s National. He comes into this year’s race off 157. That is not a wild rise, but it is enough to ask a proper question. Because if your case for him is based heavily on last year’s fourth, then you have to ask: 👉 how much better is he really off 5lb higher? That is the key issue. If you thought last year’s run was the sign of a horse still ahead of the handicapper, then maybe you can justify it. But if you think last year’s run was simply a very solid piece of placed form in a race that suited him, then 5lb higher becomes much more awkward. For me, this is where the “missed his chance” argument starts to creep in. Not because he cannot be competitive again. But because last year may have been the moment when everything aligned: - first run in the race - lower mark - right age - strong preparation - ideal long-term target Now he is back off a higher mark, trying to improve on a run that was already pretty close to his ceiling in the race. That is much harder. 5️⃣ Has he actually come here in better form than last year? For me, the answer is probably no. And this is one of the strongest parts of the case against him. Last year, he came into Aintree after a four-run campaign and had shaped very encouragingly in the Cheltenham handicap in January. That run had a slightly eye-catching feel to it. He was patiently ridden, not knocked about, and there was a sense that bigger targets still lay ahead. He looked like a horse being brought along for something. This year, I am not sure the same can be said with quite the same confidence. His season has gone: - 2nd at Haydock behind Trelawne - 1st in a 3-runner race at Ascot - 10th of 22 in the Ultima, beaten 28 lengths There are bits of encouragement in there, but it is hardly a profile that screams “coming here absolutely spot on”. And the Cheltenham run in particular was disappointing. Timeform called it “wholly unconvincing”, said his jumping lacked confidence, and noted that he was merely passing beaten horses late on. That is a long way from an ideal final prep for a race like this. Now, connections do have a possible excuse. Josh Guerriero said he came back with a slightly dirty scope and they felt he was not himself. That may well be true. But even allowing for that, the key point remains: 👉 he has not arrived here this year looking obviously better than he did twelve months ago And if he is not arriving here in better form, why exactly should we expect him to improve on last year’s fourth off a higher mark? That is the question I keep coming back to. 6️⃣ The market — very popular, but not exactly solid This is another big part of the puzzle. On Betfair, he has traded as low as 8.0 and as high as 36.0. He is now sitting around 15.5 with more than £25,000 matched. That is a very interesting market shape. Because it tells you two things: First: 👉 people are very interested in him Second: 👉 the market has not been able to hold a strong, confident position on him If a horse near the head of the market trades as low as 8.0 and then drifts back out to the mid-teens with that kind of volume matched, that is not a sign of rock-solid conviction. It suggests: - early hype - plenty of discussion - plenty of interest - but no real sustained surge of confidence To me, that fits the horse quite well. He is easy to like. He has a neat, appealing profile. But once people really dig into him, the case becomes less straightforward. 7️⃣ The stamina side — proven enough, but not necessarily a huge untapped edge This is where I think it is important to be balanced. I am not going to argue that he does not stay. He clearly does. Last year’s National run proved that well enough. The trainer also keeps pointing to him doing his best work late and wanting a proper trip. So for me, stamina is not the issue. The question is slightly different: 👉 does he have enough else, off this mark, to turn proven stamina into a winning National performance? Because these days you need more than just staying power. You need: - tactical position - rhythm - efficient jumping - enough pace not to get shuffled too far back - and still enough energy left to finish Iroko can stay, yes. But one of the things Jonjo O’Neill Jr said after last year’s race was that he found everything a bit quick early on and was a bit on his head. That is interesting. Because if a horse is already finding things a bit lively early in the race, that can leave him with a lot to do later on. And in these modern renewals, you do not want to be giving classy rivals too much rope. 8️⃣ The jumping / confidence angle This is another slight concern. Again, I do not want to overstate it. He is not an awful jumper. But there are little enough question marks there to matter in a race like this. Timeform were not happy with his jumping in the Ultima and said it lacked confidence. He fell at the first at Ascot in December 2024, admittedly through no real fault of his own. At Cheltenham in January 2025, Jonjo said he felt Iroko had lost confidence after that fall and that his jumping had suffered late on. In last year’s National he also pecked at second Valentine’s. Now, none of those things alone would put me off. But when you add them together, you do not quite get the profile of a horse I would describe as bombproof in a race where rhythm and efficiency matter so much. And again, if you are backing a horse at around 12/1 to 16/1 in the Grand National, you really want very few doubts. With him, there are just enough. 9️⃣ The big-picture view When you strip everything back, here is where I land on him. The positives are obvious: - ideal age - proven over the fences - proven stamina - strong run in the race last year - race clearly targeted again But the negatives are just as important: - no longer a debutant in a race where debutants dominate - 5lb higher than last year - not obviously coming here in better form - disappointing and unconvincing Cheltenham prep - market has cooled a fair bit from earlier prices - may simply have run his race in the National already without looking a likely winner That is why, for me, he feels like a horse who could easily run well again… …but is much harder to back as the answer. 🔟 Where I land on him I completely understand why people like him. He is one of the easiest horses in the race to make a surface-level case for. But the more I look at him, the more I think this: 👉 last year may have been his best chance to win the race That is not to say he cannot finish fourth, fifth, even second. He absolutely could. But from a betting point of view, that is not the same thing as being a good bet to win at the current odds. For me, he looks like: 👉 a very solid National horse 👉 but not necessarily a well-priced National winner Final thought If he was a bit bigger, I could understand people wanting to chance him. If he was coming here off the back of an obviously sparkling prep, I could understand people being stronger on him. But as things stand, I think you are being asked to pay a bit too much for last year’s fourth-place finish and not getting quite enough in return. He has a good chance of running his race. I’m just not convinced that means he has a good chance of winning it. To conclude: 👉 Iroko is a fair horse to respect, but a poor one to get excited about at the current odds because last year may have been his golden chance.

@AtTheRaces Why do all tipsters talk total bollocks in terms of the prices of their picks. I’ve already backed Gorgeous Tom at 33’s and he’s the same right now with Sky, 365 and 25’s with Hills not 66’s !!!

66/1 & 50/1 Grand National picks! 👀

@ggcouk Eh yeah it does. That’s 2 festivals with just the one horse winning !!

Wodhooh was the star performer for Gordon Elliott last week. Gordon's other runners at Cheltenham: 5800PUUR20PU0PUOF0PU0FPU0F92PU000902956PU0PU67000PU5PU66PU00000 Does Wodhooh's win hide a pretty shocking Cheltenham for Gordon Elliott? 👀

@Pmichaelracing @Followthebelly Aware you have a members group as I watch your good content on the Final Furlong.I would never use such a service as the fun for me is to pick the horses myself using stats and listening to various people.My question is why post rather than just send to members?

@Followthebelly I have a members group Paul.

Ironically my NH horse to follow for start of 25/26 season did not run all season but is going to run tomorrow!..Obv Picked up a injury but by god if that injury has not left its mark he is going to leave his handicap mark well behind! I was REALLY looking forward to this lad as

@AntepostValue Unlucky Liam, hopefully you had some on each way at the fancy prices as well 🤞

🐎 GAELIC WARRIOR 🔥 What a performance. Looked like he wanted to go up the hill 4 times! Fair play 👏 🙏 Envoi Allen is okay

@PaulBeck3001 Sadly I think you can do want you want when you’re super rich….look at the Orange man baby across the pond 🤷‍♂️

@mickygees But they’re happy to run Jonbon and Impaire Et Passe in the same race. Both horses that they’d said they were waiting for Aintree just in the last few days.

Then keep your horses at home Willie. JP too. You don’t own racing. You don’t run racing. You don’t dictate your own terms and threaten to take your bat and ball away. I for one have just lost complete respect for you.

@RacingPost @ItsRossBrierley @BoyleSports I backed it at 16/1…..give us a job 😂

@_JIBBER_JABBER_ Yeah not too up when winning or down when losing but always enjoying the sport and the process 👍

@mickygees Cheltenham is never easy Mick. If it was everyone would clean up every year. The work and the approach stay the same. I just trust the same methods I always use to analysis races as they've been producing results for years. Then you just need a couple to go your way. 👍

I haven’t “gone private”. I’ve shared free tips for 13 years and that won’t change. The Cheltenham Festival is the biggest week of the year and the amount of work that goes into it is enormous, so I’ve put the tips on Patreon just for the Festival week to reflect that effort. After Cheltenham the tips will be free again as normal. The articles, analysis and everything else will continue to be shared publicly like always.

@GLynchRacing Apart from the ground and all the false starts it’s gone really well 🤔😂

Fact To File NR Because of good ground 🫣🫣

@TheJumpsShow @JakePriceRacing @OverandClear Well played Dan, only got on at 20’s but I’ll take that 👍

This is unbelievable stuff. 🏆 JINGKO BLUE wins the Cup, tipped up at 25/1! Take a bow @OverandClear 👏

@_JIBBER_JABBER_ Yep on at 20/1 ages ago and got the ground on the day 👍

JINGKO BLUE (tipped at 10/1) takes the BetMGM Cup to give us a winner to celebrate on Day 2 of the 2026 Cheltenham Festival. 🥂🍾 Were you on? 😃 Another early ante post spot. I wrote this about him on February 20th 👇

@itvracing Kopek should win

Describe the Arkle earlier in three words... Go 👇