Michael Madowitz

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Michael Madowitz

Michael Madowitz

@mikemadowitz

Principal Economist @RooseveltInst, @RooseveltFwd Used to love this place This = me+β(no_sleep)+ε

NE, DC Katılım Şubat 2013
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Michael Madowitz
Michael Madowitz@mikemadowitz·
Early #JobsDay this Thursday! I usually don't pay much attention to the teenager stats, but weird trends in the economy makes this summer a time to watch teens' jobs numbers. Wrote this up in a preview post, but a 🧵for the TLDR crowd 1/
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Roosevelt Institute@rooseveltinst

Teen summer jobs are more than just a seasonal tradition—they’re a window into the strength of the labor market. Ahead of jobs day, @mikemadowitz explores what the pace of youth hiring could tell us about the economy: rooseveltinstitute.org/blog/are-the-k…

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Jed Kolko
Jed Kolko@JedKolko·
Anyone uncritically reporting changes in native- and foreign-born employment levels is either using numbers they don’t understand or is intentionally misleading their audience.
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Jed Kolko
Jed Kolko@JedKolko·
Don't use population, labor force, or employment levels from the household survey of the jobs report (the CPS). Especially not this Friday! The Feb 2026 jobs report will include the annual population adjustment, which breaks all time series in the household survey. 🧵
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Michael Madowitz
Michael Madowitz@mikemadowitz·
@EconBerger @Brendan_Duke Omg, embarrassing, I keep getting consecutive presentations mixed up in my head and now I’m not sure-prob LinkedIn b/c indeed is easier to find Something like months unemployed dashed each June and solid lines at 1,3,6 across years / cohorts?
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Guy Berger
Guy Berger@EconBerger·
Claims: 1/ Initial claims a little higher at 209K (and last week revised up to 210K), but still really low - about year-ago levels and below 2024 levels, no signs of rising layoffs here.
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Michael Madowitz
Michael Madowitz@mikemadowitz·
@EconBerger @Brendan_Duke The indeed ppl had a great chart of this at the Econ meetings but I can’t find it anywhere (since Guy left I don’t know where to find their stuff!) Have either of you seen something that sounds like this?
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Guy Berger
Guy Berger@EconBerger·
@Brendan_Duke Yes. Though I find it hard to imagine a world where we see genuine improvement continuing claims and things don't improve a little or at least stabilize for young people
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Michael Madowitz
Michael Madowitz@mikemadowitz·
@mtkonczal Would be great if the JD Power data were for a less choppy component! What I want is something relatively stable without a lot of imputation that could be affected by a missing month
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Mike Konczal
Mike Konczal@mtkonczal·
As people debate shelter measurements, worth flagging that supercore inflation, which excludes food and energy like core, but also shelter and used cars, also had a remarkably low print.
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Michael Madowitz
Michael Madowitz@mikemadowitz·
@MattZeitlin Look, Obama won on this 2012 energy platform and everyone knows the energy picture has been frozen in time since then, so we should just use that playbook!
GIF
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Matthew Zeitlin
Matthew Zeitlin@MattZeitlin·
that being said if we're talking about the politics of oil and gas, it's worth noting that chip roy is running for statewide office in texas and may have helped kill off a bipartisan permitting bill that was endorsed by virtually the entire oil and gas industry
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Matthew Zeitlin
Matthew Zeitlin@MattZeitlin·
NYT debut for @mattyglesias: "Liberals should support America’s oil and gas industry....President Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico, Prime Minister Mark Carney in Canada and the labor parties of Norway and Australia have done it."
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Michael Madowitz
Michael Madowitz@mikemadowitz·
@conorsen Isn't the point of not burning credibility for short term gains tho? It creates costs to pursuing optimal policy--see, e.g. every country that has eventually asked for an IMF bailout after doing (correct) countercyclical policy & losing bond market credibility
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Conor Sen
Conor Sen@conorsen·
I’m sympathetic to the feeling behind it (tariffs, Fed attacks, firing the BLS commissioner), but from a good governance standpoint it’s problematic that even if the economy necessitated a low Fed Funds rate, much of the economic establishment wouldn’t want to give it to Trump.
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Guy Berger
Guy Berger@EconBerger·
You can't measure everything but if something very important is measurable, you should measure it instead of announcing "I don't want to measure it" and "measuring this would be a waste of time"
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Guy Berger
Guy Berger@EconBerger·
There's a very active thread right now where someone is advocating a policy intervention and being intensely dismissive of proposed rigorous measurement of that intervention's effectiveness Makes me more skeptical about the intervention's effectiveness, even before measurement
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Michael Madowitz
Michael Madowitz@mikemadowitz·
Like, 1) I am very pro lower emissions 2) I am very pro winning elections 3) this piece is a weird smoosh of the 2 that I can't make work logically It's OK to have goals in conflict (lower global emissions, lower US energy costs), but picking a winner requires picking a winner
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Michael Madowitz
Michael Madowitz@mikemadowitz·
On earth 2 Kamala barely won & we're quelling renewables progroms over 10% energy price increases. But she lost so we get popularism posts w/ @mattyglesias telling Dems to run on approving energy exports that ⏫ US nat gas prices ~20%? nytimes.com/2025/12/18/opi…
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Matt Darling 🌐🏗️
Matt Darling 🌐🏗️@besttrousers·
@EconBerger That said, kinda silly for the randomista eye of Sauron to focus on This One Guy. (As a member of the gestalt Eye of Sauron)
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Michael Madowitz
Michael Madowitz@mikemadowitz·
Rarely do I say 'meh, let's not focus too much on the data' but very hard to come up with anything other than this today. If next month confirms this I will personally be popping bottles in the club at the Philly econ meetings (come help, my faith in AEA members is...yeah)
Martha Gimbel@marthagimbel

I honestly think none of us should massively update any of our priors re: the economy until we get December data. The shutdown seemed to still be impacting the November jobs report for instance.

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Keşfet

@AlexSJacquez @ENPancotti @Brendan_Duke @JohnHolbein1 @davidshor @EconBerger @mtkonczal @MattZeitlin