Andrew

⚠️Is the world running out of oil? Global visible oil inventories have fallen -162 million barrels since the start of the Iran war on February 27, erasing ~37% of the inventory built up in 2025. Total inventories are down to 7,981 million barrels, declining at a rate of -10.2 million barrels per day over the last 7 days. Floating storage from the Persian Gulf has collapsed by ~250 million barrels, as oil that would normally be in transit through Hormuz is no longer moving. Asia excluding China and India has been the hardest hit on the landed side, with inventories falling sharply since early March. Goldman Sachs has called this the largest oil supply shock on record, estimating cumulative losses could exceed 800 million barrels over a 6-week period if the Strait remains at current levels. The global oil buffer is disappearing fast.

⚠️BREAKING: The US economy added +178,000 jobs in March, nearly 3 times the +60,000 consensus estimate. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, down from 4.4% in February, beating expectations of a rise to 4.5%. February was revised DOWN by -41,000 to -133,000, while January was revised up by +34,000 to +160,000. Private nonfarm payrolls surged +186,000, far above the +49,000 consensus, bouncing back from a revised -129,000 in February. Manufacturing payrolls jumped +15,000, well above the -5,000 consensus, swinging from -6,000 in February. Government payrolls fell -8,000, the 6th consecutive monthly decline. However, the broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged and underemployed workers, rose to 8.0% from 7.9%. The US labor market remains extremely volatile, and these numbers are likely to be revised.