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BTC is below and near the previous cycle’s ATH.
This level must hold through the summer.
Here is 5 reasons I think why crypto dipped and what can get better.
📉Why crypto dipped (macro-driven)
📉 Fed pushing “higher for longer” – Inflation isn’t fully defeated, delaying cuts and draining risk liquidity.
📉 Strong dollar narrative – Policy messaging favors USD strength, tightening global financial conditions.
📉 New Fed leadership uncertainty – Rate, balance sheet, and credibility questions increase volatility across assets.
📉 War risk premium (Iran / Middle East) – Geopolitical tension boosts cash and energy hedges over risk assets.
📉 Trump election uncertainty – Tariffs, fiscal expansion, and regulation unknowns force de-risking.
📈What will get better
📈Economic slowdown forces cuts – Cooling growth eventually leaves the Fed no choice but to ease.
📈Dollar strength is cyclical – Once cuts reprice, USD pressure fades and liquidity returns to crypto.
(it already started as I am writing this post)
📈War de-escalation probability – Even partial resolution removes risk premium quickly.
📈Post-halving supply shock remains – Issuance is structurally lower while demand persists.
📈Election clarity restores risk appetite – Certainty beats uncertainty, regardless of outcome.
Conclusion
Volatility is the price of staying in the cycle.
Structure still intact. Summer is the test.
Yes. Summer is the test. not just 1 day of the panic sell day.
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