Mint Macs Media

Kenapa Trump sering tiba2 keluarkan GOOD NEWS ketika UST 10Y yield naik/ada di area 4.3%–4.5%? COINCIDENCE? Saya rasa tidak. Saya coba backtest 17 event tariff pivot Trump sejak Jan 2025. Dari 17 kali Trump bikin "good news" (tariff pause, trade deal, soften stance): • 12 dari 17 event (71%) terjadi saat yield ≥ 4.3%. • Saat yield di atas 4.5%: 3/3 kali Trump langsung lunak, yield turun semua. • Saat yield di bawah 4.3%: Trump santai, jarang ada konsesi. Bukti paling jelas: 9 April 2025. • Seminggu sebelumnya yield spike dari 4.0% ke 4.4%. • Bond market mulai jual US Treasury besar-besaran. • Hari itu juga Trump umumkan 90-day tariff pause untuk 75+ negara. Utang US = $36 triliun. Setiap yield naik 1% = tambahan $360 miliar/tahun bunga. US harus refinance $9–10T utang tiap tahun. Setiap 10bps lebih tinggi = +$9B biaya permanen selamanya. BOND MARKET IS THE REAL BOSS. Trump boleh bikin kebijakan apapun. Tapi kalau bond vigilantes mulai jual, dia balik badan. Yield 4.3%–4.5% bukan sekadar angka teknikal. Itu batas toleransi fiskal US. Manage your portfolio accordingly.

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BREAKING🚨: PETER JACKSON announces NEW Lord of the Rings movie!!! Focusing on Chapters 3-8 of The Fellowship of the Ring!!

Orang Indonesia yang punya tabungan di atas Rp5 Miliar naik hingga 22%.

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