Jay

@aleabitoreddit What’s your take on SOI. Is it still a multibagger in your option. It seems it didn’t ran yet as of now.

If you didn't know by now $SIVE is important to US national security via CHIPS act. But especially, as the light source for hyperscaler AI supply chains. They got two CHIPS acts grants ~$11.6M so far: 1. FR3 beamformer ICs with $ERIC and Raytheon $RTX. 2. EW Tech with $BA (LSE) BAE Systems With more coming funding from CHIPS in 2026 hinted by the CEO. Small caps almost never get this sort of support from the US government. You have a company sitting at $330M: That's critical to US National Security for their Semi arm. and Critical to Hyperscaler supply chains ( $MSFT, $META, $AMZN, $ORCL, etc) for Photonics through $MRVL Celestial, Ayar, Jabil, ONet, and others... The main question regarding scale vs. capex is now answered by Win Semi partnership. And the question regarding "CPO waiting" opportunity cost is now answered by the Jabil 1.6T pluggable ramp from OFC. $SIVE of the most unknown gems in the photonics space and I personally think this company should be $2B+ today.

@aleabitoreddit How many hours of research do you do daily and are there any proprietary resources you are using. Also, can you share your thoughts on upcoming earnings next month of SL hynix and eps projections.

Honestly if I post something in my subscriber chat regarding potential $TSM upstream suppliers, Then Apollo < $APO > acquires the company 1 hour later. I'm probably doing something right?

@aleabitoreddit Nice catch. You really are important I guess.

@aleabitoreddit Agreed.

@miraclemaster07 Investing is not a team game! I’m just putting information out there. People should synthesize that and make their own decisions. And I’d hope people build their own conviction by doing research themselves rather than blindly following my own personal thesis posts

US Chip ACT Funding is one of the largest signals. For importance to America National Security. Lesser known list: 1. $SIVE ($330m) 2. $AKTS ($920m) 3. $BLG ($34m) 4. $QUBT ($1.65B) 5. $RGTI ($5.27B) 6. $MRAM ($210m) 7. $SKYT (Acquired) 8. $PDFS ($1.35B) 9. $ATOM ($177M) 10. $SLVC ($227M) 11. $NVTS ($2.12B) 12. $WOLF ($750m) 13. $ALMU ($234m) 14. $ACLS ($2.6B) DIRECT FUNDING | DoC CHIPS PMTs: 1. $WOLF (Wolfspeed): $750 Million 2. $INFN (Infinera): $93 Million (DoC PMT) - Bought by Nokia 3. $SKYT (SkyWater Technology): $16 Million (DoC PMT) - Bought by IonQ DIRECT FUNDING | Federal R&D Contracts: 4. $RGTI (Rigetti Computing): $11.28M (AFRL/quantum networking and AFOSR Chip fab) 5. $QUBT - Direct DoC/NIST contract for TFLN PICs DoD Microelectronics / Sub-Contractors 6. $SIVE: $11.6 Million (NEMC Hub) 7. $MRAM - $8.7 Million project partner ("CHEETA" project via SCMC Hub) 8. $ACLS - $7.8M partner project (Led by GE Aerospace via CLAWS) 9. $BLG - $6.5M (DoD sub-contracts secured to date via CLAWS Hub) 10. $AKTS - $4 Million (Lead grant for the "LADDER" project via NEMC) Adjacents: 11. $ATOM: Member of the SWAP Hub 12. $NVTS: Embedded partner in the SCMC Hub 13. $PDFS: industry partner in the CA DREAMS Hub 14: $ALMU: affiliate member in the CA DREAMS and MMEC Hubs -> Electromagnetic Warfare (EW): $51 million allocated across 6 projects. -> Artificial Intelligence (AI) Hardware: $42 million allocated across 7 projects. -> 5G/6G Wireless Communications: $42 million allocated across 5 projects. -> Commercial Leap-Ahead Technologies: $38 million allocated across 7 projects. -> Quantum Technology: $32 million allocated across 4 projects. -> Secure Edge Computing / IoT: $25 million allocated across 4 projects. Just a warning: Being important to US technology (eg. Wolfspeed) does not translate to being a good investment. Was just doing research into $SIVE CHIPS act funding and decided to see what other lesser known companies got grants or were beneficaries too.

@aleabitoreddit @PanDog64356596 lol that’s true. People randomly siving with ya…

@PanDog64356596 This is free, not even $1

@PanDog64356596 @aleabitoreddit We also help him pump it dude. We are part of serenity family and it’s free for family lol..let’s see how long we can continue pumping but just play with 5% port for low MC stocks otherwise you will get burnt.

@aleabitoreddit How is it possible that we can get access to all this intel for $1/month

@aleabitoreddit Do you think the run is unstable and it will cool down to 8-9 again before it goes up. Also, what’s your estimate of sk hynix for upcoming earnings. Will it still go up in your option. Same for Samsung.

I keep getting asked: What's the PT of $SIVE? It's a $320m MC company, how far can it run? It’s a critical CW laser company, the next chokepoint in photonics. Closest comparison is $MTSI is $17 Billion. Then $LITE at $51.97 Billion. I think it should trade at $2-3B, today. Yet it’s $320 million. The sheer valuation gap points to massive upside when it scales.

@aleabitoreddit Are you averaging your EWY options down. Can you please share what strikes and expiry you bought. Do you see more blood coming ?

One of the most brutal wipeouts occurred in Asian markets today. China's stock market: -3.63% Korea's (KOSPI / $EWY) stock market: -6.49% Japan's (Nikkei) stock market: -3.48 However if you look at Israel's Ta-125 stock market? +11.25% YTD and +67.21% 1Y. The US $SPY is down ~5% YTD, but faring better than their Asian counterparties. This data is very interesting since markets, not headlines, are usually the best largest indicators of: Winners and Losers of War. Especially with the ongoing energy conflict with the War in Iran.

@MylesMcNulty @aleabitoreddit Serenity, this looks interesting. Please look into it.

Excellent list. Humanoid robots, data centres and the space economy are going to drive NdFeB magnet demand over the coming decades, ad astra. For best-in-class NdFeB magnet recycling / reproduction, look at UK-listed #MKA and TSX.v-listed $CTH (they jointly own HyProMag). Lowest-cost magnet manufacturing platform in the world, owing to the use of hydrogen decrepitation in the recycling process. Patent held by HyProMag in almost all key territories outside of China (including all of the G7). Truly a globally scalable rare earth technology (which itself is extremely rare). First plant now up and running in the UK; the second being commissioned right now in Germany; construction to commence on the first US plant in the next 2-3 months, with production coming online mid next year. Management talking of building as many as 7-10 plants across the US, in the longer term…! Plans also being developed to build out plants in Japan, Canada, South Korea. HyProMag will soon have the largest footprint of any rare earths company up and down the supply chain, worldwide. It’s largely being ignored at the moment by ex-UK investors simply due to its lack of a serious market listing (I.e. NASDAQ, NYSE, ASX..). However, that’s shortly to change with HyProMag USA planning a NASDAQ listing later this year. Watch out for material US government support landing for HyProMag USA in the coming weeks. My bet is that next year, HyP USA on NASDAQ will have a multi-billion $ mkt cap. That is just for the US operations. Japan and Europe (as a bloc) BOTH consume more magnets each year than the US does. And Mkango #MKA mkt cap is currently sub $200m..!

Normally this goes in shower thoughts but will post main timeline today. $ALOY - Rare earth powders -> high-purity metals. Magnets used in the liquid cooling pumps $NB - Scandium, lightweight metal frames for server racks. $UURAF- Separation of rare earths. $ARA - Upstream feedstock for magnets $MEI - IAC deposit outside of China. $NTU - hard-rock heavy rare earths These are all more under the radar stuff like sub <$1B. Then for robotics supply chains I made this earlier: $UUUU - Processes monazite sand into high-purity Neodymium $MP - Extracting bastnäsite at Mountain Pass and vertically integrating into domestic NdFeB magnet manufacturing. $ALOY - Converting heavy rare earth oxides into defense-grade alloys and high-temperature metals like Samarium and Gadolinium $USAR- Process heavy rare earth elements and manufacture sintered NdFeB magnets $LYSDY -(Lynas Rare Earths Limited) - Only commercial producer of separated heavy rare earth elements outside of China. $NEO -(TSX): They are the only Western company commercially producing the actual NdFeB magnetic powders and alloys at scale right now. $ILU- (rare earths refinery): rare earths refinery for Australia $ARU- (ASX): "Ore-to-oxide" NdPr facility 2. Structural Metallurgy (Niobium, Vanadium, Titanium, Beryllium) $ATI - Dominant US producer of high-performance titanium and specialty alloys required for robotic joints. $CRS - US supplier of specialty structural alloys, including the high-strength steels, titanium, and magnetic $FCX - World's largest producer of Molybdenum, which is strictly necessary for the structural steel in planetary roller screws. $NB - Critical pure-play company developing the Elk Creek project in Nebraska, aimed at supplying domestic Niobium, Scandium, and Titanium $MTRN - Major global processor of Beryllium $LGO - Leading publicly traded processors of Vanadium $BMM - Onshore supply and processing for like Germanium and Gallium $VNP - Gallium, Germanium, and Indium for advanced sensors and electronics $TECK - Most significant producer of Germanium outside of China $ALB - Lithium extraction $EAF - High-purity Graphite for battery anodes $ALTM - Western lithium required to supply the batteries $SYR - Balama mine for Graphite $FCX - Humanoid requires up to 6.5 kilograms of copper $AW1 (ASX): Advancing the West Desert project in Utah, for domestic geological sources for high-grade Gallium and Indium I'm aware of a lot of more... It's just some are a little dangerous to mention geopolitically in case I broadcast vulnerabilities to geopolitical adversaries reading this (looking at you $AXTI) If you're going long on a western one 5n my favorite. Image source: Crossdock Insights, Visual Capitalist FYI this is not the pandoras box stuff. Just name dropping some interesting names informally before finishing up some research on a specific long idea. Critical elements required for semiconductor packaging and others close to near-total import reliance -> so prob influx of funding going toward it. Just informal thoughts

@aleabitoreddit Did you sell Sive and aeva… you just said like you were king on these for 2 yrs atleast.

If you don't remember: $AEVA was my long for 4D Physical AI + World Models. -> LG $50m in $AEVA to co-develop FMCW 4D LiDAR, explicitly citing Humanoids -> LG (Boston Dynamics vision spuplier). But... Guess who makes those CW lasers for FM-CW Lidar? The very same company for scaling photonics with 1.6T+ pluggables with $JBL to CPO in $MRVL Celestial. Is the likely 4D AI CW laser supplier for humanoids and 4D physical AI. One highly possible mapping: -> $SIVE -> $AEVA -> $LG -> Boston Dynamics. Both $SIVE and $AEVA were my two longs, but frontier sectors in 4D Physical AI to photonics tend to overlap.

@TradexWhisperer What’s your yearly target for them. They have already 5xed from bottom kinda. Is it a real long term safe hold like MU or risk is there due to it being an Israeli company.

$TSEM Silicon Photonics + Power Management It's going BLUE, again. Get 270+ charts daily. Try it free: patreon.com/posts/master-m…

@KawzInvests What’s your price target for Soitec and if you were to choose between soitec and aaoi. Which one will you choose. Soi seems it has not ran yet.

Everyone is arguing over who wins the CPO arms race. $AVGO with Davisson. $NVDA with Spectrum-X. $MRVL with their own play. Meanwhile nobody is talking about the company that supplies the foundries building all of it. Here's the actual setup. Today's data centers run on pluggable transceivers. Optics sit outside the chip, signals crawl through copper traces, DSPs burn 30W per interface just compensating for signal loss. At 100K AI servers, optics alone consume 10-20x the power of a traditional data center. The math stops working. CPO fixes this by integrating optics directly onto the switch ASIC substrate. Signal loss drops from 20dB to 1-2dB. Power consumption falls 3.5x. Reliability jumps Meta ran 15 million device hours on AVGO's Bailly without a single unserviceable failure. This isn't experimental anymore. But the cycle matters. Pluggables still own 95%+ of the market through 2027. CPO doesn't meaningfully inflect until 2028. You don't abandon transceivers you hold both and rotate. The real winner-agnostic play? Silicon photonics is the engine of every CPO solution on the market. Silicon photonics runs on SOI wafers. One company supplies those wafers to virtually every major foundry on earth TSMC, Samsung, GlobalFoundries. Soitec. NVDA wins → Soitec wins. AVGO wins → Soitec wins. Some dark horse startup takes share → Soitec wins. $24B CPO switch TAM by 2030. $15B optics TAM on top of that. $SOITEC

@crux_capital_ If you were to enter into photonics in the next week, what are your top tickers to enter which have not run like lite and ilk. So, which tickers are fundamentally strong and have not ran yet. One is TSEM I think. So, please share your opinion.

Education Saturday - What’s next in photonics $LITE $COHR $AAOI If you invest in photonics, one thing you really need to understand is where the architecture goes from here. Because the next leg of this story goes beyond general demand. It is about where optics sit in the system, which form factors keep scaling, and which companies are lined up for that shift. So let’s start with a key component. A pluggable transceiver is the optical module that plugs into a switch and moves data over fiber. That has been one of the core building blocks of the AI network buildout. As speeds have moved from 400G to 800G and now toward 1.6T, pluggables have been a huge winner because optics handle bandwidth, reach, and power far better than copper once you get to these levels. $COHR is still telling us that pluggable transceivers remain the dominant form factor for scale-across and scale-out through at least the rest of this decade, and $LITE is already showing a 1.6T DR4 OSFP as a step toward future 3.2T modules. That is the current reality. But the next question is what happens when even that setup starts getting stretched. Because as switches get faster, the electrical path from the switch chip out to the faceplate gets harder to manage. You are pushing more data, through more heat, with tighter power budgets, and eventually the architecture itself starts asking for a change. One of the main reasons CPO gets attention is that shortening that electrical path can improve bandwidth density and energy efficiency. That is where Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) comes in. The simple way to think about CPO is that instead of keeping the optics out at the edge in a pluggable module, you move them much closer to the switch chip itself. You do that for the shorter electrical path, better power efficiency, and better signal integrity. And the really important piece is scale-up. Because scale-up is 100% electrical today. Think simply of scale-up staying within a rack, rather than across racks in a data center (scale-out) or across multiple buildings (scale-across) That means if optics start moving into scale-up in a real way, this is a brand-new optical layer entering a part of the system that has historically been electrical. That is why CPO gets so much attention. It opens a new pool of optical content while pluggables can still keep growing in other parts of the network. Now let’s tie it back to some of the main companies I discuss. If I had to overly simplify the setup, given the information we have today, I would say it like this: AAOI looks the most directly levered to the pluggable ramp today, COHR looks the broadest across future CPO paths, and LITE looks especially well positioned in the laser layer that can feed both the current pluggable market and the next co-packaged designs. So let's break it down just a bit. $AAOI is still riding the pluggable ramp today in a very meaningful and leveraged way, and for CPO they are showing a 400 mW hot-swappable external laser module plus a live 6.4T onboard-optics demo powered by it. So the angle with AOI is pretty straightforward in that they have the most of their torque to the current pluggable cycle, while also trying to supply one of the key pieces future co-packaged systems will need. $COHR is about breadth. Instead of leaning on one single CPO product, they are showing multiple routes into that future architecture such as a 6.4T silicon-photonics CPO design paired with their own external laser source, a multimode design built with VCSELs, and a 400G-per-lane InP-on-silicon path. So COHR is trying to give customers several ways to build the next system depending on which design path gains traction. $LITE is about heavily about the laser engine. They are still pushing the pluggable roadmap with a 1.6T DR4 OSFP module, and on the CPO side they are showing very high-power laser sources, including an 800 mW laser and a 16-channel ultra-high-power source aimed at next-gen scale-up systems. So LITE has clear exposure to today’s pluggable ramp, while also sitting in one of the key input layers for the coming architectures. It gets way more nuanced than this, so please take it just as a bite sized bit. But I think this roadmap is so important. The takeaway is that some companies are more tied to the current pluggable wave while some are pushing harder into the co-packaged layer that comes next. Some have a path into both. And over time, that is going to shape where the revenue growth shows up and where the market starts assigning the most value. This is a transition that I will be covering extensively as it folds

@aleabitoreddit Given your read of the macro and US markets, please throw some insights on midterm projections and how they may impact the markets overall and will ewy get impacted or not. Since you are research pro, it would be cool to hear you and how will you hedge against midterm crash.

I was mapping second-order effects of the $2B company that does AI for Cows. I just realized something brutal: Shepard Dogs Are Going to Be Unemployed. AI displacement is coming after everything. $ORCL, $AMZN, $META, and others are laying off workers from AI automation. And now your local dogs will be unemployed too. Is my pet fish going to be out of a job too?

@aleabitoreddit One tough question for you. Given you are famous now, do you see just to beat retail, hedge funds and big guys might start shorting instead of pumping your suggestions first, just to pump it after when retail interest wears off. How would you safeguard yourself from big guys.

JPM is projecting 0 rate cuts in 2026 (Mar 19th). Derivatives show~37% 0 rate cuts. Here's the traditional winners and losers: 1. Banks / Stablecoins: $CRCL, $JPM, $BAC, $WFC - Interest from treasury, CCs, mortgage 2. High Cash vs. MC: Berkshire < $BRK.B >, $ETOR, $VLN, and others - Companies that sit on large piles of cash relative to MC, where interest rates make material difference to operational income. - This is beneficial to a lot of brokerages, but also very nuanced eg. $HOOD. 3. Insurance: $PGR, $MET, $ALL - Higher yields on bond portfolios 4. Value/Cyclical Stocks: $XOM, $CAT, $DE - Strong cash flow today + underlying commodities boost as well. Losers: 1. Telecommunications & Heavy Industrials: $T, $VZ, $ATUS - Companies that carry massive debt loads to build out optic cables, 5G, etc. 2. Utilities: $NEE, $DUK, $SO, $XLU - Utilities carry heavy debt to maintain power grids and partly bond proxies 3. Real Estate + REITs: $AMT, $O, $BXP - Higher rates drive down the valuation of the physical properties themselves and harder borrowing for buying homes. Then government bonds > dividend yields. 4. Unprofitable / Speculative Tech: $ARKK Nuanced: Historically Mag7 like $NVDA, $AAPL, $MSFT, $AMZN were neutral-winner as they were typically sitting on loads of cash. But for the first time, some are going into debt for the AI buildout and are scaling like startups again (eg. $META 33%+ Y/Y revenue growth): -> Cash-rich companies like $AAPL are likely to be fine, $MSFT + $GOOGL (largely funded by operational income) -> While $META, $ORCL, and others may face more challenges (projected to take on debt long term) However, despite short term volatility from projections + War in Iran: One TACO could flip all the projections. So, I would not bet on high interest rates or rate hikes or this trade. And I don't think markets will either long term.