MJD

@JaredKubin Have you seen this formally anywhere? Seems like a massive issue brewing if price collapses further. I had heard that the Korean US listings were driven by growing discomfort from banks re: size of the swap balances. Have you heard that?

KOREA JUST DOUBLED THE COST OF BUYING SAMSUNG? Hearing Samsung long swap financing went from ~300bp Thurs to ~600bp friday If true, that’s wild (when was last time this happened?!) synthetic long exposure suddenly got much more expensive when banks double the cost of owning a stock through swaps, the marginal leveraged buyer gets taxed…. Question is WHY?? Balance sheet constraint? Borrow/inventory issue? Dealer risk limits? Or Korean regulators leaning on the system? What a circus… either way, 300bp to 600bp in 24 hours is a signal

@Biohazard3737 Why not just take PCSK9 inhibitor instead? Seems like that’d accomplish the bulk of the task. Also - I’m personally curious - what is your view on long term implications of extremely suppressed LDL levels? What is the most obvious risk from that?

A few things I have found to be helpful, and that I will remind myself about as I start a new career journey shortly: 1) focus on internal locust of control 2) be relentlessly present on the task The outcome will be what it is regardless, you have identified the bad node as a possibility, accept it for what it is - you can control what you can control and you can be 100% in achieving that. I try to focus on those elements. Also - in any situation I try to run the worst case thru, be comfortable with that outcome. You go broke, move your family, downsize, start a new career, etc…if it’s not life or death. If you aren’t ok with that realistic downside, I would make practical changes to become ok with that. Whatever that entails for you. Perspective and gratitude also help - someone always has it worse and would love to be in your shoes + lean into the things you are grateful for more frequently. Collectively - this has been useful for me. Hope the same for you.

Is this going to matter in a year? How about 5? 10? I stressed about grades in high school. Fortunate enough to get into a good college. I stressed about grades in college. Fortunate to get a good job after graduation. Spent the following 2 decades stressed about doing well, making my employer and team members happy. I can't think of any situation that at the time I thought was "life or death" was truly that serious in retrospect. Then why do I still get super stressed out? One would think now that I'm in my 40s I would be less stressed out with enough data to demonstrate all those scary situations weren't that serious. I've had my fair share of bad outcomes where I lost big $$$ or I didn't get the job I wanted. I'm super stressed right now managing the order book and managing deadlines for customers as alot of customers pulled forward demand ahead of massive price increases. I'm feel fortunate but continue to have this knot in my stomach waking up at 330am knowing my team and I have alot of work to hit customer deadlines. I still want to make my customers happy and worry about a nasty call or email about when something will ship when it rarely happens. This feels like a mental disease that I can't shake. How have others solved this or is this a good thing in that it has probably been the driver of past success? At some point none of this crap matters right?

@benitoz Kudos to you for the intellectual honesty here and thank you for your thoughts MT $500m optical revs in FY 2027 is certainly proof point for their roadmap. Gavin’s support certainly doesn’t hurt either.

Follow-up to last night's Credo piece. Three hours later, Credo announced the acquisition of DustPhotonics. Press release: "vertically integrated stack spanning SerDes, DSP, Silicon Photonics" Same-day flash note, free ↓ bepresearch.substack.com/p/credo-just-c… $CRDO

Between oats and chia seeds, pretty much daily for around a year, my LDL and LPa both dropped by 30pts. Glucose went up 10pts, but A1C went down. I exercise with decent frequency, as I have, but the LPa and LDL change really didn’t happen until the last year. Very surprising For me, I’d rather trade lower cardio risk factors for slightly higher glucose level that I can then fix if need be. What do you think about all this?

Oat Diet Reduced Serum Cholesterol Levels nature.com/articles/s4146… @DrNadolsky @drmatthewnagra @NutritionMadeS3 @DBelardoMD @maciejbanach @DrKarlNadolsky

Between oats and chia seeds, pretty much daily for around a year, my LDL and LPa both dropped by 30pts. Glucose went up 10pts, but A1C went down. I exercise with decent frequency, as I have, but the LPa and LDL change really didn’t happen until the last year. Very surprising For me, I’d rather trade lower cardio risk factors for slightly higher glucose level that I can then fix if need be. What do you think about all this?

Eating almost only oatmeal for two days leads to a significant and sustained improvement in cholesterol. nature.com/articles/s4146…

@damnang2 Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

If you have read a bunch of articles but still do not fully get why CPO matters, try this one. Even if you have no technical background, you will be able to understand it fully.

Can you please show a net return comparison va an investible and legitimate multi strategy or strategy specific benchmark? Net GP take rates aren’t particularly useful without visibility into net LP take home $ PnL. Paying 60% away in fees and making 12% a year (net) doesn’t read well to a board but it is a high quality net return.

The fees are too damn high in the hedge fund industry, but it doesn't have to be that way. By taking an alpha-indexing approach and using an ETF structure, our clients have paid about 1/6th the fees they would have with similar returns in a traditional 2 & 20 LP structure.

@blueprintsmb22 This sentiment feels accurate fwiw

Everybody saying AI risk destroying sectors such as transports, software, financial services, etc yet NVDA is flat since August 2025. Consumer pods are short WMT and are in tears. My group text chats w portfolio managers have gone silent as it's clear whatever is going on is not funny anymore. A few have pinged me directly and shared that "down a little YTD...don't think at risk (of getting canned)...yet." I have yet to read much of any thoughtful analysis of what pple think is really going on. Just pain and 4 letter words. I don't get the sense there has been real capitulation yet as the muscle memory is just not be short residual vol on the inevitable rip back so the one doesn't "lose twice" (smoked on market selloff and then smoked on the rip back). Definitely feels like the pain trade is way lower, but I just make plastic bags.

@stfbutnou Where do you see this?

this is why $CRDO up after market apart from guidance revision "In Q4, we secured a significant DSP win for a 800-gig transceiver with initial deployments expected at the US hyperscaler in fiscal '26. At the OFC Conference in San Francisco last month, Credo's latest optical innovations drew widespread attention from industry leaders. We unveiled our ultra low power 100 gig per lane optical DSPs built on 5 nanometer technology. This family, including full DSP and linear receive optics or LRO variants sets new industry benchmarks for power efficiency. In collaboration with an optical module partner, Credo demonstrated an industry first 800 gig optical module with total power consumption of roughly nine watts. Powered by our Lark LRO DSP and single mode optics, we achieved error rates comparable to full DSP solutions, earning significant interest from hyperscalers prioritizng power efficiency for AI deployments. We also showcased our 3-nanometer 200 gig per lane optical DSP, supporting port speeds up to 1.6 terabits per second. With leading signal integrity and power efficiency, this solution positions Credo to drive the industry's transition to 200 gig lane speeds in the coming years."

@pmje73 Got it. Thank you for the thoughtful reply

The book will give you a lot of statistical evidence about why buying talent doesn’t work in certain domains and why the value of teams and context in which access occurs is always undervalued. The book is designed to persuade so if you are already convinced then it’s interesting but not vital. It won’t teach you how to mentor or train just help you gain more confidence it’s the right path.

This book gets some airtime in the discussion about developing vs acquiring talent. I have struggled to articulate why precisely I think developing talent (and actively working to retain) is worth the time and investment. The answer I have landed on is the most important skill to develop is where you develop the habit of focusing your attention. What draws your attention is where you will spend your time and where all of your energy goes. Attention, time and energy drive output. Once you’ve developed a habit of allocating your attention it’s difficult to break. This is not dissimilar to DFWs This is Water insight. The point of mentoring is not to teach “how to think” or “do a task” but rather to influence what they think about and where they direct their attention and energy.

@JulianKlymochko LS equity is up on the month. That spread you cite is not a representative proxy, you need to beta and vol adjust to get something more accurate. Challenging in pockets, yes…but for LS fundamental, performance is positive

It's been a shockingly bad start to the year for long short equity, primarily due to the surge in heavily shorted junk stocks. The GS Most Shorted basket has jumped +18.3% year-to-date, causing the long short equity hedge fund proxy* to decline by -13.7%. Moreover, the long short equity hedge fund proxy has fallen nearly every single trading session in 2025, highlighted by a particularly nasty -4.1% today. Painful. *Long short equity hedge fund proxy = GS HF VIP basket - GS Most Shorted basket

@plainyogurt21 We will see. I think you’re going to regret this take, although it is funny.

Imagine $BBIO. But Worse drugs. All of them. And there you go. Now you have $BHVN

@docrodwong Thanks Rod. Will order a copy. Enjoy #1.

hey all. our new think tank, the rtw institute, and i wrote a book. we're #1 at the moment on amazon for new releases in biotech! (i know, i know, just let me enjoy being #1). check it out! a.co/d/i0WwBfp!

This is very useful thank you. Why is market so skeptical on Credo’s own optical portfolio, if / when industry does partially move off copper? Do they not have best in class power here? And also, amidst the HBM bonanza here, why no fan fare for their Weaver / Gearbox solution? Seemingly in a short supply HBM market, this solution becomes a huge success for them, in short order. And they claim to be getting wins here…What am I missing?

I've added $CRDO on the 25.7% drop, taking advantage of CES misinformation. 1. Large drop initially was because investors spotted orange and blue cables in $AMZN DCs (implying $CRDO customer loss). All that happened was Amazon requested a color change for internal logistics. - confirmed by Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho. 2. CES 2026 keynote - Second drop was Jensen Huang said "Cableless" design of Rubin NVL72 rack. The "cableless" claim refers specifically to the internal copper backplane (blind-mate midplane) that connects the GPUs to the NVLink switches within a single rack. $CRDO's main product is AEC, for outside of the racks that connect the entire server rack to the network switch. Nvidia's "Cableless" Tech only replaces internal parts Credo didn't make. Jensen did mention Spectrum-X Ethernet Photonics, but $CRDO is operating in the photonics space too with "BlueBird" (Optical DSPs) and "ZeroFlap" optics. And then there's Top of the Rack Connectivity, which is Credo's main business (which is the most power efficient solution for the next 2-3y). There are larger concerns over the shift to photonics (as I've pointed out with $AXTI multiple times), but industry is moving toward a hybrid model (copper + photonics) given the supply shortage. Again as an overview, investors just did not know the nuances, not intentional disinformation. So I ended up personally adding $CRDO since a large percent of its market cap got wiped from immaterial + incorrect news.

@davidmiedz Thanks for the thoughts. I don’t know the name well, aside from some time spent looking at it last week, but at arms length seems like Global Blood’s (gbt) launch dynamics from 2020. Where there was smoke, was fire.

Spent a couple days researching $SLNO. It is a compelling setup, but for me this one's a pass. My main concern is the edema prevalence and the -ve experiences of caregivers on fb groups. Hard to get excited about investing in a company that is going to struggle to penetrate such a sceptical patient community. (Obvs, plenty more to consider here, but i'm not going to write a long thread just to say 'neutral; no position' lmao.) Good luck to @seedy19tron et al. - and thanks for putting out a great report on the company!

Very thought provoking. Thank you for sharing I’m more in the camp of it being less deep than you suggest and more just a bunch of people being degenerates because it’s fun and at their finger tips. The biggest delta is availability of mechanisms (and data), as opposed to financial or societal developments. I’d argue the former is more likely to drive the latter, as opposed to society driving people to yolo. I.e are more people smoking weed because of AI implications on their career, or because of ease of use Similarly, I can assure you that majority of sport bettors aren’t making a 25$ 8 team parlay because they feel oppressed by society, they might just be bored I also think retail trading speculation is more concentrated amongst the user base than aggregate volumes would suggest, and that sports gambling adjusted for offline (illegal) to online and inflation paints a more benign growth trajectory. The point on basic needs being met and those then evolving is interesting. If your downside is capped because of positive societal developments , it’d make sense to take more risk not to counteract negative pressures but simply because you can afford to fail.

@JaredKubin Outstanding read. Thanks Jared

Everyone's sharing that "Long Degeneracy" article and nominating it for article of the year with 20m views. I just got around to reading it…overall, I get it. It's well written, emotionally resonant, and captures something real about generational anxiety. I like the author, I subscribe to their stuff… talented Quant. But nobody's pushing back, so let me while I watch my kids at the pool. My main pushback is this: the article is a suicide note dressed up as investment advice. I REFUSE to hand my agency to "the house." The moment you accept "the game is rigged so I might as well gamble," you've surrendered. You've quit on the process that actually works because someone convinced you it doesn't. There are no easy buttons. No shortcuts. No magic money options. There is only learning, sacrifice, and continual grit. It tells a generation they're prisoners. Then it sells them a lottery ticket and calls it freedom. Then it tells YOU to invest in the prison. That's not analysis. That's despair with a ticker symbol. The author spends 2000 words empathizing with young people as "prisoners" trapped by a broken economy… then tells you to invest in the platforms extracting fees from their desperation. "Long Coinbase, long DraftKings, long the casinos." Read that again. The thesis is: a generation is so economically desperate they're turning to gambling, most will lose, and YOU should profit by owning the house. You can't weep for the prisoners and then sell shares in the prison. Pick one. 4 points I want to make.... Pushback 1: "Closed" is doing a lot of work The claim that traditional wealth building is "closed, not difficult" is asserted, not proven. The boomer vs millennial wealth stat is misleading… it compares 65 year olds to 35 year olds. Of course boomers hold more wealth. They've been alive longer. Housing is brutal in coastal cities. But median home prices in most US metros are still accessible to dual income households. "Wages up 8% while housing doubled" has no timeframe and cherry picks the comparison. Real wages post 2020 have actually grown. Is it harder than it was? Yes. Is the game "fundamentally broken"? That's a much bigger claim requiring a much longer discussion. Pushback 2: Negative EV doesn't become rational just because you feel stuck The core logical move is: "if you're trapped anyway, a 5% chance of escape beats 100% certainty of stagnation." But gambling doesn't leave you "still stuck." It makes most participants actively worse off. That 5% moonshot comes paired with a 95% chance of losing your savings, your rent money, your runway. The author admits "most people lose" then hand waves it because gamblers "understand the odds." But understanding bad odds while taking them isn't rationality. It's emotional capitulation wearing economic language as a costume. This isn't a generation finding a path out. It's a wealth transfer mechanism moving money FROM desperate young people TO platform operators. Pushback 3: The article accidentally reveals the real problem The author admits social media has "repositioned the zeroth line" so people earning $150k feel poor. Admits the algorithm ensures "you never feel like you've arrived." Admits basic needs are met and there's "cognitive bandwidth" for existential questions. But wait. If the problem is FEELING trapped due to infinite upward comparison rather than BEING trapped… gambling doesn't fix that. You could 10x your net worth and the algorithm will still show you someone richer. The "Maslow trap" section accidentally confesses: this generation isn't imprisoned. They're dissatisfied. These are different problems. Pushback 4: I don’t have enough FAITH to live in a world without God This is the part nobody wants to hear. The entire thesis rests on a materialist assumption: your life's meaning is determined by your net worth, your house, your access to experiences. If you can't get those things, you're "imprisoned." If you can, you're "free." That's spiritual poverty masquerading as economic analysis. Jesus said it plain: "What does it profit a man to gain the whole world and forfeit his soul?" The author's answer is apparently "at least you beat the algorithm." My BIGGEST problem with the article isn't economic. It's theological. It assumes the highest human need is "self actualization" through financial success. That Maslow's hierarchy is the truth about human nature. That if you can't afford the vacation and the house, you're missing what makes life worth living. That's not wisdom. That's the prosperity gospel without the gospel. No thanks. The reason this generation feels trapped isn't because housing costs went up. It's because they've been handed a worldview where meaning comes from consumption, identity comes from status, and hope is a betting slip. When you build your life on that foundation, of course you feel imprisoned. The cell is interior. Real freedom isn't financial. It never was. The peace that passes understanding doesn't require a Polymarket account. Eternity is a LONG time. So what's the alternative? First: Exit the comparison machine. The author correctly identifies social media as manufacturing infinite dissatisfaction. The answer isn't to gamble your way to a moving target. It's to stop letting an algorithm define your "zeroth line." Your reference class should be your actual life, not curated highlights from 8 billion people. Delete the apps. Touch grass. Go to church. Give yourself to something BIGGER than your net worth. Second: Skill acquisition still compounds. The article mocks "getting better at your job" as boomer advice. But the same young people pouring hours into memecoin research could pour those hours into skills that compound. The difference is skills don't have a house edge. Coding, sales, writing, trades… these translate into income whether the market is up or down. AI is changing which skills matter but it's not eliminating the returns to expertise. It's concentrating them. Third: Asymmetric bets exist outside casinos. If you want convexity, build something. Start a business. Create content. Ship a product. The difference between entrepreneurship and gambling is you're building equity in something that can compound, not burning capital on negative EV. Fourth: Anchor your identity somewhere the market can't touch. If your sense of self rises and falls with your portfolio, you're a slave. If your hope depends on a moonshot, you have no hope. The man who knows who he is in Christ doesn't need a 100x to feel like his life matters. He's already free. That's not copium. That's the only foundation that doesn't move. The real trap The article's framing is seductive because it offers absolution. You're not making bad decisions. You're rationally responding to a broken system. The house always wins but at least you're playing. The framing IS the trap. The economy is harder than it was. Housing costs are real. AI anxiety is real. But "harder" isn't "impossible," and the author's solution… becoming a customer of fee extracting platforms or an investor in them… doesn't help the people he claims to sympathize with. It helps the house. Here's what actually works. -Wake up early. Get after it. Be Relentless. -Spend less than you earn. No excuses. -Acquire skills that compound. Every single day. Stack them. -Build things you own. Equity, not lottery tickets. -Get your body right. Discipline starts physical. -Get your soul right with the Lord. My closeness with the Lord has grown MORE in trials and tribulations than any fancy car. -Exit the comparison machine. The algorithm is not your friend. It's your enemy. -Find your people. Real ones. In person. Build a family. Build a group you trust. -Serve something bigger than yourself. -Pray. Not as a last resort. As a first principle. Daily. -The path is painful. The path is boring. The path requires years of work that nobody will clap for. But it's the path that works. The casinos will keep taking their vig. The gurus will keep selling hope. The algorithms will keep showing you what you don't have. Let them. You are not a prisoner. You are not a degenerate. You are not a customer. You are a free human being with a soul that matters and a life to build. So build it through active faith, aggressive patience, and a mindset geared towards eternity and not your bank account.

@systematicls Interesting take and agree on the scale point. I’d love to understand how you envision successful Quant firms scaling AI, what does that actually mean aside from featurizing and backtesting testing literally everything possible? Or is that it?

My private (to my professional life) view is that all trading firms that are unable to scale with AI will go to zero as quickly as the next 5 years. I don't think most people have even began to fathom what large scale AI activity in markets will look like. I don't mean "AI Arena" cute "Grok vs Deepseek" level of AI. I mean the kinds that Agustin and co are working on; where initial success can be scaled up by throwing more computational power at it.