MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter

Hi! Launched a Streamlit app for the Deserve-to-Win-O-Meter. You can now easily search any game from the 2025 season (soon 2026). Note I added spray angle to the model, which accounts for where balls are hit on the field, not just how hard. dtw-str.streamlit.app

@caniwatchsports Fire have to win the mls cup brah

@mlb_simulator when we getting you into baseball man

Which hitting metric best predicts next-year's performance? I tested 11 metrics across 801 player-seasons (2022-2025, 200 PA min) to see which one best correlates with next-year's wOBA. Est. Bases / PA (EB/PA) came out on top at r = 0.53, ahead of OPS (0.46), wOBA itself (0.46), and SLG (0.43). EB/PA measures what each plate appearance is worth based on how hard and where a player hits the ball, plus their walks and strikeouts. Bayesian shrinkage filters out small-sample noise. #MLB #Bayes

BABIP is mostly luck but there is a small skill component in that hitters who consistently hit the ball harder and at better LAs sustain slightly higher BABIPs over time. On the other hand EB/PA essentially isolates skill inside BABIP (contact quality) and reduces the luck component

@mlb_simulator to me it's just odd because I think of BABIP as the most luck-dependent stat out there, but that's probably mostly when dealing with small samples.

@ByEdStrong For sure. K% is one of the most stable stats YoY but it tells you almost nothing about how productive a hitter will be. Judge strikes out mid 20% while plenty of low-K% guys are below average

@mlb_simulator K% being lower than BABIP is wild

Explore every player's EB/PA, contact quality, and luck breakdown at dtw-str.streamlit.app/Hitter_Profile

The gap holds across sample sizes. EB/PA leads at every PA threshold from 25 to 400, and Bayesian shrinkage widens the advantage at smaller samples where noise is most prevalent. This chart shows both Bayesian and Raw EB/PA. Raw is just the straight average EB/PA, while Bayesian shrinks extreme small samples toward the league mean, which is why it pulls ahead at lower PA counts and they converge at higher ones.

⚾ Venezuela vs USA 03/17/2026 Final: Venezuela 3, USA 2 Deserve-to-Win: Venezuela 43% / USA 37% (Tie 20%) 🏟 loanDepot park #WBC2026

⚾ Venezuela vs Italy 03/16/2026 Final: Venezuela 4, Italy 2 Deserve-to-Win: Venezuela 63% / Italy 20% (Tie 17%) 🏟 loanDepot park #WBC2026

Let me know any changes or other things you’d like to see or think would be helpful pls 😛

Eugenio Suárez populates as a Power Slugger in the player archetypes model. Given his age, the projection model expects some decline next year in terms of hitting capabilities, but his recent HR in the #WBC should provide some hope that he can defy the odds. Check out player pages here: dtw-str.streamlit.app/Hitter_Profile

⚾ USA vs Dominican Republic 03/15/2026 Final: USA 2, Dominican Republic 1 Deserve-to-Win: USA 59% / Dominican Republic 26% (Tie 15%) 🏟 loanDepot park #WBC2026

⚾ Venezuela vs Japan 03/14/2026 Final: Venezuela 8, Japan 5 Deserve-to-Win: Venezuela 82% / Japan 9% (Tie 9%) 🏟 loanDepot park #WBC2026

⚾ Puerto Rico vs Italy 03/14/2026 Final: Puerto Rico 6, Italy 8 Deserve-to-Win: Puerto Rico 44% / Italy 41% (Tie 15%) 🏟 Daikin Park #WBC2026

@MrsGravy13 Mrs Gravy the losing team must have a win probably >=50% in order to qualify as officially unlucky

@mlb_simulator You forgot the 🚨 USA ARE LUCK MERCHANTS 🚨 part. Just a coincidence I’m sure 😂

⚾ USA vs Canada 03/13/2026 Final: USA 5, Canada 3 Deserve-to-Win: USA 35% / Canada 49% (Tie 16%) 🏟 Daikin Park #WBC2026

⚾ Korea vs Dominican Republic 03/13/2026 Final: Korea 0, Dominican Republic 10 Deserve-to-Win: Korea 0% / Dominican Republic 100% (Tie 0%) 🏟 loanDepot park #WBC2026

⚾ Dominican Republic vs Venezuela 03/11/2026 Final: Dominican Republic 7, Venezuela 5 Deserve-to-Win: Dominican Republic 86% / Venezuela 8% (Tie 6%) 🏟 loanDepot park #WBC2026

⚾ Italy vs Mexico 03/11/2026 Final: Italy 9, Mexico 1 Deserve-to-Win: Italy 73% / Mexico 18% (Tie 10%) 🏟 Daikin Park #WBC2026

⚾ Canada vs Cuba 03/11/2026 Final: Canada 7, Cuba 2 Deserve-to-Win: Canada 78% / Cuba 10% (Tie 13%) 🏟 Hiram Bithorn Stadium #WBC2026

🚨 Italy are luck merchants! 🚨 ⚾ Italy vs USA 03/10/2026 Final: Italy 8, USA 6 Deserve-to-Win: Italy 16% / USA 72% (Tie 12%) 🏟 Daikin Park #WBC2026