MaiMai🍟

Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026? Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA. If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028. Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet? With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped? I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals. It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently. Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage. In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do. Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time. So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes. And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.

Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. I see a lot of people making fun of the drop or AI names, saying it’s obvious that: - “AI is a bubble” - “memory/kospi is a bubble” - “photonics is a bubble” - “humanoids won’t get anywhere” - “neoclouds will get replaced by hyperscalers like Meta” And a bunch of retail + bots saying “sell everything, it’s never going to recover”. But I have conviction that all these themes are backed by structural revenue growth or technological shifts. And I’ve had similar drawdowns back when there admin threatened global tariffs, before markets pulled off a recovery. I personally have a longer horizon + higher tolerance for volatility than others, to see how this plays out. Especially considering a lot of retail view things on a week to week basis: no, my thesis isn’t wrong yet if I project revenue inflection in H2 2027 and it’s 2026 now. Anyway, feels bad short term just wanted to share anyway for transparency.

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That mean reversion feature of the SPX is about to come under pressure, particularly <7,480. SPX has been flat despite deep seek round 2, korea margin calls, more war.

我突然意识到，这波很多爆仓的韩国人，不仅仅是因为交易了杠杆 ETF（自带 2 倍做多 SK 海力士的那种），而是在交易这个杠杆 ETF 的基础上，再去叠加信用贷、透支账户，给杠杆 ETF 再加上杠杆。 wtf

被储存干退役了，昂贵的一课，币圈摸爬滚打啥都不信最终还是信了“永远缺储存上”。也算庆幸之前把资金都弄到券商交易，2x的ETF亏得再惨但终究不会爆仓，在币圈的钱开合约搭配美股随时上头开5x/10x，一晚上就被强平了。今天起来家里的落地玻璃爆了，巨响一声，我就把它当成上帝善意的提醒，提醒我别再继续交易了。想想交易动不动一亏就几十wu，却从没试过用一年花这个钱能体验什么样的生活。赌的体验这辈子真的算赌爽了，即使叫fengdubiying，也久赌必输，该去体验不同的生活了。之前就申请好了下半年去读研，这下可以安安心心回校园沉淀了。