Jack Xu

Caesars Entertainment (CZR) modtris.com/download/1909/… 7.5% 2-year default probability mainly on interest payment burden. Below 33% recovery on senior secured note. Bond values are $4-10 below market prices.

Builder FirstSource (BLDR) modtris.com/download/1906/… Modtris values all bonds at ~$10 above current prices. Market prices correspond to a certainty of 1-sigma (7.1%) decrease of gross margin in 2025 compared to 2024.

Community Health System (CYH) modtris.com/download/1904/… Modtris valued all senior secured notes at roughly 60% of the market prices and the subordinated notes (junior secured and unsecured) at below 40% of the market prices.

Tenet Healthcare (THC) modtris.com/download/1901/… Valuations agree with prices on senior secured notes (treated as unsecured debt behind payable), but different on senior unsecured notes due to call valuation.

Nabors Industries (Energy exploration service) modtris.com/wp-content/upl… Price fair on senior priority guaranteed notes (due 2027&2030), but overpriced on senior guaranteed notes (due 2028&2031) by underestimating recovery subordinations. Market cap at 0.3x PB ratio is fair. #nbr

PG&E (PCG): modtris.com/wp-content/upl… Prices on the first-lien mortgage bonds are consistently with a 57% 10-year PD and close to 90% recovery on first-lien debt. Equity has more downside from current PB ratio of 1.14x. #PCG #PD #probabilityofdefault #creditanalysis #creditmodel

Carnival Cruise (CCL): Cruise stocks fell this week amid US Tax crackdown fear. We simulate the impact to CCL's bond and equity values under a 20% income tax. modtris.com/wp-content/upl…

Hilton Worldwide Holding modtris.com/wp-content/upl… Bond prices overvalued for maturities beyond 2030 even under aggressive growth target and conservative equity buyback assumptions. Equity severely overvalued.

Allison Transmission modtris.com/wp-content/upl… Bond and equity valuation disconnect. BB+ unfit for company's individual risk. Bonds undervalued while equity overvalued.

Avient Corp modtris.com/wp-content/upl… New 2031 Note slightly undervalued vs. 2030 Note. Equity strongly overvalued.

Siri XM Holding Bond price fair on 2029 Note but undervaluing both wings. 10-year cumulative default probability at 6%. Unsecured debt recovery rates are 0 assuming goodwill and FCC license have no recovery value. Fair spread curve is humped at 2030.

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Carnival Corp: Operating volatilities are key default risk driver. Simulation shows default concentrated in 2026 and 2027. Implied credit spread curve is fully inverted. Market over-values bonds in short-end while under-values in long-end. Equity over-valued against default risk.

Nordstrom: Default events occurring only at 2027 and 2031 with bond maturing. Bond prices below model by 2 to 8 points. Recovery high on unsecured debt without any secured senior. Equity value seems fair with no buybacks feasible at current valuation modtris.com/wp-content/upl…