Ivy
860 posts
币圈小伙伴真比较习惯被KOL带起飞
你们可能都觉得的two sigma是傻逼。他们已经把几m的小Trade做成亏快上亿美元了，还胶着熬着？
会不会、有没有一种可能，他有一些你和serenity都没有的信息呢？
good luck～～
NickSung | nicksung.btc@NickSung2017
几个意思， $SIVE 空军还在加仓，是有多头铁啊！
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@moneyinyes @zyxfmm86 这么一揽子老大难的股，还是两倍的，震荡磨损很大的；MSTR机会不大，其他的要看资金轮动；
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特朗普称协议已基本谈判完成，2天前提醒了不要做空
刚刚，特朗普宣布将“很快”宣布与伊朗谈判的协议, 霍尔木兹海峡将被开放；
$BTC ，黄金，美股期货开始上涨；
2天前，提醒了大家，反指散户在看空，让大家不要做空；
6月10日CPI数据日、6月11日 SpaceX IPO和6月17日的美联储会议，这些重大数据或事件才有机会推动美股转折；
还是按原计划， $SPX 7500-7700，分批止盈。
Trump says the deal is almost done — and two days ago I already warned everyone not to short the market.
Just now, Trump announced that an agreement with Iran will be announced “very soon,” and that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened.
$BTC, gold, and SPX futures are all moving higher.
Two days ago, I pointed out that retail traders had become a contrarian bearish signal, and warned everyone not to short.
Major data/events such as the June 10 CPI release, the June 11 SpaceX IPO, and the June 17 Fed meeting are more likely to become the catalysts for a market turning point.
So I’m sticking with the original plan: gradually take profits as $SPX moves into the 7,500–7,700 range.
Lord William｜UK@LordWilliamUK
粉丝问美股会大回调吗？从散户和机构情绪和动作可见端倪 刚出炉的AAII数据显示，散户看空比例大幅上升到43.6%，净看多比例已下降到-11.9%； 很多散户在踏空或卖飞后，开始做空； 另外，高盛的信息，对冲基金对美国股票宏观产品、指数及交易所交易基金的空头头寸现已升至10年来最高水平； 结合目前市场参与度在中位，英伟达财报没有sell the news； 个人判断，在6月10日CPI数据日、6月11日 SpaceX IPO和6月17日的美联储会议前，美股不看大跌； 罗素2000形态看涨，6月10日前，可考虑逢低买入动能股。 Followers are asking me whether $SPX will see a major correction — clues can be found in both retail and institutional sentiment and positioning. The latest AAII data shows that the percentage of bearish retail investors has jumped sharply to 43.6%, while the net bullish reading has fallen to -11.9%. Many retail traders, after missing the rally or selling too early, have now started shorting the market. Meanwhile, according to Goldman Sachs, hedge funds’ short positions in U.S. equity macro products, indices, and ETFs have risen to the highest level in 10 years. Combined with current market participation still being around neutral levels, and Nvidia earnings not triggering a “sell the news” reaction, My view is that before the June 10 CPI release, the June 11 SpaceX IPO, and the June 17 Fed meeting, I don’t expect a major selloff in U.S. equities. The $IWM chart structure also looks bullish. Before June 10, buying momentum stocks on dips could be worth considering.
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@LordWilliamUK @zyxfmm86 去年不懂事买了上仓位的🤦♀️open oklo,、稀土、MSTR CRCL以及核能币股两倍做多🤦♀️ 哦 两倍做多本来大赚 但是流动性危机没走变巨亏😂🥶，今年买票首先考虑要拿多久 然后再也不买两倍做多了跟小市值的票了🤦♀️
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川普的中期选举和党内矛盾
《华尔街日报》5月22日报道，Trump对共和党国会的控制力，开始第一次出现明显裂痕。过去一年里，共和党参议员基本上对Trump高度服从，无论是cabinet任命，关税政策，伊朗战争还是大规模支出法案，共和党参议院整体都很少公开反抗。
但这一周，情况发生了变化。导火索主要有两个。第一个，是Trump推动设立一个17.76亿美元的“anti-weaponization fund反武器化基金”。 这个基金本质上是：给那些声称受到“政治迫害”的人赔偿。最具争议的是里面可能包括大量106国会山骚乱参与者。很多共和党参议员认为，这看起来像一个slush fund政治小金库。甚至Trump盟友Tom Cotton都在会议中直接发火：“谁想出来的？为什么现在搞这个？”Ted Cruz后来形容那场闭门会议，是他在参议院见过最激烈的会议之一。
第二个导火索，是Trump突然背刺共和党资深参议员John Cornyn。Trump转而支持Ken Paxton挑战Cornyn的德州参议员席位。这件事让很多共和党议员非常震惊。因为Cornyn在共和党内部属于老牌建制派，资深参议员和对党内贡献极大的人物。很多共和党人认为Trump为了“忠诚度”攻击自己党内重要人物，已经开始损害共和党整体利益。尤其问题在于Ken Paxton本身争议极大。他曾被弹劾，腐败争议，极端MAGA标签。共和党担心如果Paxton参选，原本稳红的德州，可能都会出现风险。
我的看法：最新数据显示Trump支持率正在明显下滑。目前：approve 41%，而disapprove 57%。而且更危险的是共和党内部强烈支持Trump的比例，从1月的75%下降到57%。这是一个危险信号，Trump正在从共和党绝对核心，开始变成可能拖累共和党的风险。对于美股投资者来说，要时刻关注中期选举的风向，以及川普失去两院后可能带来的政策不确定性风险
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粉丝问美股会大回调吗？从散户和机构情绪和动作可见端倪
刚出炉的AAII数据显示，散户看空比例大幅上升到43.6%，净看多比例已下降到-11.9%；
很多散户在踏空或卖飞后，开始做空；
另外，高盛的信息，对冲基金对美国股票宏观产品、指数及交易所交易基金的空头头寸现已升至10年来最高水平；
结合目前市场参与度在中位，英伟达财报没有sell the news；
个人判断，在6月10日CPI数据日、6月11日 SpaceX IPO和6月17日的美联储会议前，美股不看大跌；
罗素2000形态看涨，6月10日前，可考虑逢低买入动能股。
Followers are asking me whether $SPX will see a major correction — clues can be found in both retail and institutional sentiment and positioning.
The latest AAII data shows that the percentage of bearish retail investors has jumped sharply to 43.6%, while the net bullish reading has fallen to -11.9%.
Many retail traders, after missing the rally or selling too early, have now started shorting the market.
Meanwhile, according to Goldman Sachs, hedge funds’ short positions in U.S. equity macro products, indices, and ETFs have risen to the highest level in 10 years.
Combined with current market participation still being around neutral levels, and Nvidia earnings not triggering a “sell the news” reaction,
My view is that before the June 10 CPI release, the June 11 SpaceX IPO, and the June 17 Fed meeting, I don’t expect a major selloff in U.S. equities.
The $IWM chart structure also looks bullish. Before June 10, buying momentum stocks on dips could be worth considering.
anns@anns2025
@LordWilliamUK 要大回调了吗
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@moneyinyes @L730718L 核电还有机会；$Coin的大行情需要到明年了，今年CLARITY Act通过参议院投票时可能有最后一哆嗦，然后继续回调
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美股气势如虹， $EWY 盈利超50%， $TSLA 盈利超20%！
3月买入的 $SPY $EWY $TSLA 盈利丰厚，当时标普指数6500，市场无人问津；
今天 $SPX 突破了7500，和我们的年度目标位7600很近了，按计划分批止盈；
目前散户情绪还不够高涨，不少在浮亏加空；
美股CTA以外的多类机构目前仓位中高，还没有超配；
所以，还不适合做空；
有仓位的分批止盈，没仓位的耐心等待回调。
按历史，每届美联储新主席就职后，回调会到来。
U.S. stocks are on fire — $EWY is up more than 50%, and $TSLA is up over 20%!
The $SPY, $EWY, and $TSLA positions we bought in March have delivered huge gains. Back then, the S&P was around 6,500 and nobody cared about the market.
Today, $SPX has broken above 7,500 and is getting very close to our annual target of 7,600, so we’re taking profits gradually according to plan.
Retail sentiment still isn’t euphoric enough yet — many are still underwater and adding shorts.
Outside of CTAs, many institutional investors are currently at medium-to-high positioning levels, but they are not yet fully overweight equities.
So it’s still not the right time to short the market.
If you already have positions, take profits gradually. If you don’t, patiently wait for a pullback.
Historically, after every new Fed chair takes office, a correction tends to follow.
Lord William｜UK@LordWilliamUK
懂王：我们考虑收尾，我们又赢了！ 再信懂王一次！ 652 买了 $SPY 126.8 买了 $EWY 369 买了 $TSLA Trump: we’re considering winding down — we’ve won again! Let’s trust him one more time! Bought: $SPY at 652 $EWY at 126.8 $TSLA at 369
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