@AdamMancini4 Looks like we have another great example to add to the "buy the invasion" graphic you share often
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Shane
49 posts
Closing update #ES_F: 7058 bonus target has hit and nothing to do now until the first dip. 7073 then 7093 are the next big targets up now. Newsletter out soon talking what supports to engage when we get the first retracement of this rally
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Runners continue to print and there's 7058 1st bonus target hit. We are still long from Sunday's 6793 Failed Breakdown. Today's targets given at 8am were 7021 (hit), 7036 (hit), 7048 (hit).
Bonus slate were 7058 (here now), 7073 above here, then lots more still above that
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
My last tweet was a few mins early because there's 7048 final target hit exact in #ES_F. Today's target slate was given at 8am. There were 3 targets: 7021, 7036, 7048. 7048 has hit. Anymore today from here is bonus for that runner. 7058, 7073 are bonus No entries until deep sell
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@AdamMancini4 It's always funny to see the bears/prediction artists disappear from your replies after a multi-day rally like this😂. Good stuff as always.
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Levels respecting perfectly today as the long keeps paying in #ES_F. Today's long trigger was the 6809 reclaim given live 8am. Core targets given were 6819, 6830 (hit). Bonus slate were 6846 (hit), 6854 (hit), 6872 (been here for an hour)
Ride runner now 6883, 6902 2nd bonus set
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
And as always, these targets were given in advance to newsletter readers. We just hit that 6873 as we breakout the 2 flag. Nothing to do now but ride your runner which should be +277 points now from Tuesday's 6592 reclaim entry - one of the best longs this year.
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@AdamMancini4 I've noticed lately FBD's triggering after type 1 acceptance haven't been working as well as they did in months past. Or maybe I'm not reading the action well. Idk. Have you noticed this? I may run a test only using the 5 point rule for simplicity's sake and see what happens.
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Closing update #ES_F: Its been an incredible run. Newsletter readers got the 6791 entry. I posted live here 922AM the 6808 trap long. Target was 6855, with 6899, 6913 bonus. Now, we need to digest the move to setup the next leg. Newsletter out soon talking the next big entry
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The long is paying heavily and we were prepared for it (because it happens after every "war" dip). Now just ride runner. 6808 Failed breakdown was given at 9:22AM. Main target 6855-60 (Hit). Bonus set were 6870, 6885, 6899 (hit).
6913, 6918, 6925 next, then 6943. 70-73=support
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
There's ~6899 next target hit. Every "war" dip is the same as warned in #ES_F: Crash, Failed Breakdown, Rip. At 9:22AM I posted watch traps of 6808. We trapped it, &ran. Main target was 6855 (hit). Bonus were 6870, 6885, 6899 (here now) 6913, 6918, 6925 next. 6870-72 now support
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@AdamMancini4 I may start keeping a running tally of how many Sunday opens give out newsletter setups. I suspect one could legitimately make a living trading only the Sunday open lol. Good stuff as always!
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There is no edge or trader capable of catching every type of move the market makes. Every profitable trader has a small niche. Maybe its short only mean reversion on range days. Maybe (like me) it's long only Failed Breakdowns on liquidity grabs. Jack of all trades=master of none
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@AdamMancini4 Evening sessions this week have been money! Was expecting evening/overnight chop pre CPI. Nice to get tomorrow's points today (again)
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Closing update: 1st open to close red day since Nov 20th (#ES_F gets 1-2 per month). 6818-22 had to recover to rally as posted, we backtested it 2x & sold. Bulls must recover 6796 this eve to see 6806, 6818-22 (bears control below). 81, 67 next. Newsletter out soon with entry
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Today is the 1st open to (near) close red trend day since November 20th. #ES_F sees 1-2 per month. Bears control as posted. 6789 support and been here for 45 mins. Bulls must recover 6806 to start a push and 6818-22 (tested 3x) to retake control.
6781, 6767 next down otherwise
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
There's 6789 as we approach of the end of a grinding mid day chop window in #ES_F. Bears control until bulls start recovering some lost supports. 6806 could start some momentum but 6818-22 must recover as posted (tested 2x) to flip control back for the day. 6781, 6767 next down
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@AdamMancini4 Setting up beautifully for a gap fill/6772 FBD in the AM (hopefully)
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Gap up for #ES_F & there's +100 points from Friday's 6690 Failed Breakdown given explictly here at 1:10PM. Targets given at the time were 6732, 6751, 6766. We hit 6766 Fri. I posted 5pm Friday 6798 was next. 3 points shy
Protect gains. 6806, 6815, 6851 next batch. 66=support
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Worth adding: With minutes until #ES_F closes, there's ~6766 hit. My system trades these squeezes. 6690 reclaim was long trigger given. Targets were 6712 1st (hit). 6732 2nd (set the bottom as posted). 6751 3rd (hit). 6766 hit. 6798 next. Newsletter just sent with next entries
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Mostly just my intuition, I look at the shape if the pattern has multiple support and resistance touches and looks "textbook", I check to make sure there are no hidden bearish divergences on the latest run up which tells me its not quite ready yet. I usually like to see at least one big trap below, which we had today
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Today's been charting 101 as we build a flag. As posted this morning, 6467-69 to 6494 was the range/flag. We put in a quick trap below to 6454, got long, rallied to 6494 exact. We then retested 6467-69 3x, back up the range.
0 to do but hold runner. 6503, 6514+ when ready
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
We know the drill in #ES_F: We had perfect long this morning (test of 6454 then 6461 reclaim). Targets were 6477, 6488 main (hit) then 6494 bonus (hit exact). After getting paid, now noon chop. Don't force. 6467-69 - 6494=the range. 6477, 6488 inside it. 6454 must fail to sell
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@AdamMancini4 @CorlukaDejan Is the amount of time spent in the range how you judge maturity of the base? Or is it more so about how many trips up/down the range? Always been curious as to how you judge that.
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@CorlukaDejan Yes, its almost mature but not quite. Should be ready by tomorrow
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@AdamMancini4 Shifted my approach to failed breakdown longs only this year alongside you. Trade frequency down, stress way down, win rate up, account balance WAY up. Never going back! It's cool to see how a trader with even your experience is constantly evolving.
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All day ystd after chop I warned trend was coming & patience paid in #ES_F. 6271/6263 Failed Breakdown was long trigger posted all day + in the 4pm newsletter. Targets were 6281 (hit), 6288 (hit). Bonus were 6298 (hit), 6303-05 (hit)
Wrap it up, hold tiny lotto. 6311, 6320 above
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Great follow through in #ES_F, and let runners work until headlines hit. 6271/6263 reclaim was long the trigger as written all day yesterday and in 4pm newsletter. Targets were 6281 (hit). Next up was 6288 posted 8am (hit). 6298, 6303-05 bonus. Same supports on downside
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@AdamMancini4 I know you/we don't use your (or anyone's) predictions for execution purposes, but that has to be satisfying as hell to get it right as often as you do. You are a wizard sir!
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Price is following exact trajectory from my Saturday chart (green arrow). Pattern was 2 week triangle 5979-6081. We sold to support Sunday, undercut to put in Failed Breakdown & trigger long. Macro targets were 6124 (hit), 6155 (here now), 6220.
Big picture triangle fails<6081
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Big Picture: For 3 weeks, #ES_F is rangebound. 5979 support (held June 5, 12, 19). 6050 magnet, 6081 resistance. Pattern is a descending triangle Plan Next Week: As long as pattern holds, next leg up sees 6124, 6155, 6220. 5979 fails, we sell to 5910, 5850. Entries in newsletter
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@AdamMancini4 Thought for a minute there the holiday/headlines combo would ruin the A+ setup. Need price to behave! Got one level at least.
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Holiday chop continues in #ES_F, but small Failed Breakdown underway. 5979-82 was support as posted this morning (its the June 5th low & June 12th low. Major level). We flushed it, recovered, popped higher
5992 remains 1st up, with 6k, 6014+ above. Todays low fails, 5945 next
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Note: There is also obviously the Failed Breakdown of the 5979-82 shelf to track now, I discussed it in the newsletter in detail. This is the shelf from June 12th. Low vol, artificial holiday action today though so don't overtrade/keep things light. Normal action resumes tonight
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@AdamMancini4 Nice double FBD of the 5862 Monday low and 5877 low of day for a supercharged squeeze. Will be interesting to see how we react to the 5925 zone if/when we reach it into the close.
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There's the full round trip in #ES_F and 5920-25 target hit. I posted at 1:19PM (after a nice bear trap to 5850) that 5877 Failed Breakdown would trigger long. Targets were 5890, 5910, 5920-25. All hit for 40+ points
Just let the bonus runner work. 5936, 5945+ when ES is ready
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Gold mine of Failed Breakdowns today, as everyday is in #ES_F & today its all about 5877. After flushing to 5850 to trap shorts, I posted that 5877 had to reclaim to rally. Targets given were 5890 (hit), 5910 (almost). Lock in gains, leave lotto 5920-25, 5936+ bonus. Sell<5850
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@AdamMancini4 Thought there was no way we'd get that A+ setup after last night's action. Market always delivers.
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Finally some volatility coming back into the market in #ES_F. I posted the 5910 level had to fail to see 5900, then 5882. We lost 5910, and sold down to 5884 which is currently the low. This Deja Vu from yesterday now: 5910 must recover to see 5925+
5860 is below 5882 now
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
After being spoiled with trendy moves (the 5910 reclaim at 420PM gave us 90 points to 6k target), then working back down in #ES_F, its mid day chop time around the same 5925 magnet. You know the drill from yesterday. 5925 must reclaim to see 5936, 5945+. Below 5910 is 5900, 5882
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@AdamMancini4 I have a hunch many of the rally haters will give up on shorting on the long overdue elevator down day, switch their mindset to "BTFD," and inevitably get smoked. Should be a fun day in your replies section when it happens!
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Closing update #ES_F: This mornings 5925 Failed Breakdown given 8am paid out for 62 points and ran to 5987 target. Nothing to do now but ride the runner until it ends, vol is low. 6k, then 6020+ next. 5970/5963 supports as posted, held so far. Newsletter out soon with entries
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Low volatility & action has been near the open for a week. As a Failed Breakdown trader, this means after morning setup triggers (5925 reclaim today), 0 to do but hold runner. Targets were 5963 (hit), 5970 (hit), 5987 (hit).
6k+ if ES wants more. 5970, 5963=supports. Dip below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
5987 was next target in #ES_F & hit exact. Now +62 points from this mornings Failed Breakdown given 8am. Targets were 5963 (hit), 5970 (hit), 5987 (hit). As posted all day, nothing to do but ride runners until it ends. 6k, 6014 next. 5970=support, then same supports on way down
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@BrunnerTrades @AdamMancini4 No frustration really, I'm fine with 1-3 trades a week so missing out on one doesn't bother me anymore (it used to which lead to overtrading/revenge trading). The beauty of it is I know there will be many more textbook FBD's in the coming days/weeks/months so missing one is fine.
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@AdamMancini4 @moonwalkTX Seen hundreds of these by now so not making the proper adjustment and holding on to fallacies likely the frustration here, but often feel the acceptance dip - return isnt sufficient if not deep enough of a sell & ill hesitate and skip thinking ill be the early trapped fbd trader
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After "elevator down" sells in #ES_F, always comes short squeezes. After losing 5565 this morning, we got the 130 point "elevator down" sell. Then comes the squeeze. I posted 5493 had to recover to start run to 5515+, hit.
5534, 5548, 5565 if ES wants more.
New lows<5485 now
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
After a 130 point flush following the 5565 fail sell trigger, #ES_F getting its 1st short squeeze of the day. I posted 5493 had to reclaim to pop lvl to lvl & we recovered it & ran 20 points Nothing for bulls to get excited about until 5515 recovers. 5485 fail works us back down
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@AdamMancini4 Thats fair, I guess I was just a bit cautious about longing after the 30+ point rally to get there.
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@moonwalkTX We had fairly good acceptance of 5493. We backtested it at 1015AM, sold off 8 points, then ripped through. Thats acceptance (in my acceptance diagram in the trade recap section, its the first type)
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@AdamMancini4 Nice little FBD of the 5283 low for those that missed the long opps overnight
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After a 177 point squeeze from the 5151 reclaim long ystd, #ES_F seeing its 1st retrace. Remember todays 1st target was 5248-52, which was the breakdown zone yesterday. Its recovery this morning squeezed us. Bull/bear line now
5284-88 reclaim resumes us higher. Dip<5248-52
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
After a 177 point linear squeeze from 5151 reclaim long trigger yesterday given at 2:40 (and another trigger on 5231 reclaim given at 8am), #ES_F getting its 1st dip. 5288-84 was support as posted. Just hit & bounced. Sell to 5251 below there, 5306 reclaim to pop lvl to lvl
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@AdamMancini4 No trades since Thursday close for me, lets hope we can flush 5651.
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After a 90 point flush from yesterdays 3 month "megaphone" back-test at 5755 (We broke it last Monday. Bears control below, bulls take some control above), #ES_F taking a breather
5668 was next support down, basing here. 5698 must recover now to work up the lvls. 5651 below here
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Key to remember its 0 coincidence why we are selling here: Yesterday at 2:45PM we back-tested the only lvl that matters in #ES_F: The 3 month megaphone support 5755 which we lost last Monday. Bears fully control below Nearing 5668 next down. 5651 below, 5698 must recover to pop
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