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IIHL establishes presence across Indian BFSI sector post the 100% acquisition of Reliance Capital Limited (now IndusInd Capital Limited) and 60% controlling stake in INVESCO AMC India! linkedin.com/posts/moses-ha…
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Moses Harding John
69.5K posts
Moses Harding John
@mosesharding
President & CEO, IndusInd International Holdings Ltd, Mauritius. Director: IndusInd Capital Limited, India; IIHL Bank & Trust Limited, Bahamas
Mauritius Katılım Nisan 2011
59 Takip Edilen6K Takipçiler
Nice one, as always from you, Shereen!
It is evident that “something” is “hidden” within him which couldn’t be extracted how hard you tried!
It’s“mind matter” between the Chairman and WTDs in general and MD & CEO in particular!
Higher the WTD headcount is a bother for Chair!
Shereen Bhan@ShereenBhan
“We do not dig wells after the fire has taken place” Former HDFC Bank Chairman on the “ethical incongruence” that lead to his resignation. “Personality issue has been overblown” “There needs to be avoidance of risky practises” ‘There has been an underperformance’ Detailed interview below 👇 @CNBCTV18Live @CNBCTV18News #HDFCBank #Bank #CNBCTV18Market
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Immediate relief for @RBI is from USD/INR holding below 95, but the limited recovery to 93.15-93.50 with bounce back momentum for attempting upside break at 95 could trigger more such measures from RBI to halt runaway weakness towards 100!
Latha Venkatesh@latha_venkatesh
Now the gap in the one-month contracts has fallen to 50 bps from 70 bps early in the morning. Most of the positions are for one month, so fall in the basis pt difference here is a bit of a relief say bankers
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Heard corporate India doing large ticket deals at 15-25 paisa for 1Y and 55-75 paisa for 5Y offered by foreign banks, sold as risk-free lazy profits?
Will @RBI consider this as “mis-selling” and ask banks only to focus on financial intermediation & transaction banking?
Latha Venkatesh@latha_venkatesh
Difference between onshore-&offshore rates today vs Friday: (as per bankers) TENOR NDF-Onshore diff(bps) NDF-Onshore diff(bps) on Friday today(monday) 1week 2-3 bps 25-27 bps 1 month 5bps 75 bps 3month 10 bps 115 bps
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The split of the arbitrage profits is 75-90% to the India based corporate entities & individuals and 10-25% shared between onshore & offshore banks (the intermediaries)!
As you say, no need to worry & make noises. This will also pass away smoothly unwinding the excessive moves!
Samir Arora@Iamsamirarora
Just relax about this supposed 4,000 crore loss on FX unwinding. Just in the past month the INR has depreciated by over 4%. All these positions would not have been set up for the first time at Friday 27th close. These banks would be in the money big time till now (which equity markets did not know for or account for) and now they will give up some of those profits. Big deal. Also some of the bigger positions may have been taken by more aggressive foreign banks (like Citi etc)- who knows but we don't care beyond a point for them as far as our market is concerned.
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@RBI can’t backtrack or dilute the stance taken that would extend the rupee fall to 100+
Kind of struck between the devil (helping banks to avoid losses by backtracking) and the deep sea (let the rupee fall bit more into 95-100)?
Deep sea shouldn’t ideally be an option!
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Since most of the arbitrage profits has gone to Indian resident companies & individuals with banks booking marginal exchange fee, why not recover from the real beneficiaries?
Why blame the arrow (banks) and not the bow (corporates)? Why banks bow to corporates when not ethical?
Latha Venkatesh@latha_venkatesh
Here’s a more detailed story on how rupee will move on Monday and why banks will have to book losses after RBI caps open FX positions; Some historical perspective added. cnbctv18.com/business/finan…
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An early resolution in ME either way whether Iran gaining the supremacy in West Asia or Iran getting tamed by Trump is good for India driving Brent down to $65-100 providing much needed relief for currency & interest rates; USD/INR at 88.50-91.50 and 10Y at 6.65-6.85% in Q1/FY27
RAHUL KOLHE@robinhoodmumbai
@AnkitMadX @dugalira @mosesharding @forex_cr Now if there is a ceasefire announced by 9th April...rupee might actually go down below 90.
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Banks don’t need to sell cash value paying the high cash/spot; they need to adjust the spot-next to forward value date.
@RBI knows its weighted average holding rate of its short positions during the period Rupee collapse from 85 to 95, which could be at 90-91.50, the base 4 now!
Ankit Madhwani@AnkitMadX
Cash spot is over 30 paise due to year end Nobody would sell tomorrow may be Selling may happen on 1st or 2nd April Wed/Thur USDINR @dugalira @mosesharding @forex_cr
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The issue that’s discussed is not fundamentals.
It is the Indian banking system buying dollars in onshore OTC market and feeding into banks operating in offshore NDF markets for o/n profits for both; making the most money are the Indian entities that has offshore presence!
Manish@mk131276
@mosesharding People speculate based on fundamentals. It is speculation which provides liquidity. Gone are the days of animal Jalan where instructions from Delhi to dealing room in Kolkatta could influence INR.
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Impact on fundamentals are from FPI pull out & slackening exports (from tariff) and spike in Crude oil (because of war in ME)!
Understand that RBI could do little on this but should have had a hawk eye on demand-supply dynamics/equilibrium during this time!
Acting bit late!
Manish@mk131276
@mosesharding RBI can tame speculation but how will it correct fundamentals
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When fundamentals are weak & against Rupee, @RBI should be more vigilant to cut speculative play that causes excessive weakness!
Agree that tariff & Middle East (both caused by Trump) came as a bolt from the blue to spoil the FY26 macroeconomic and monetary stability!
Manish@mk131276
@mosesharding RBI can tame speculation but how will it correct fundamentals
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What is the need for $100M open position on the “long side” when Rupee under pressure? Why not handle cover operation on intra-day basis capping o/n cap at $10M which is sufficient to cover pipeline client transactions?
This will help stability at 88.50-93.50 for now!
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It means that Indian banks have played a crucial supporting role in driving the Rupee down from 85 to 95 when the system was going through tough times from tariff & ME crisis?
Why build such huge “long” positions than necessary? For quick bucks?
Samir Arora@Iamsamirarora
Latha- just to understand please explain why other than pure speculation these banks had such a huge position of dollars. How much was normal position (say 2 yrs ago) etc. What is banks' justification for this. Of course it is a free world etc but we have stock limits per investor, odi limits,nri limits in a fund, futures limit etc so what is/was the rule here.
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In an era of globalization, all needs to balance expectations to achieve peaceful mutually beneficial co-existing relationship!
India should balance the play between US/Israel/GCC and China/Russia/Iran. Has India achieved this to be friends of both sides?
M K Venu@mkvenu1
In the middle of war dependence on imports from China, Russia and Iran for oil, fertilizer and other critical equipment is going up dramatically. What are we getting from US &Israel exactly? Expect economic disaster!
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Net long USD/INR of domestic banks go as supply to banks offshore counter parties to meet the demand in offshore NDF markets!
When Rupee is structurally weak since mid 2025, enforcement of administrative strictures on speculation is the need!
Why not “square” position?
Latha Venkatesh@latha_venkatesh
Impt announcement from RBI on Friday evening that can strengthen rupee: -RBI limits NOP-INR positions of banks in the onshore market to $100 mln -Alert: NOP-INR means net open dollar-rupee positions of banks -RBI directs banks to bring down their open positions to $100 mln by April 10 -Bankers say banks may be holding long $ positions much more than $100 mln -Sale of the excess long dollar position can lead to a sharp rise in the rupee on Monday dealers say.
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Feelings..:.:wishful…. Relief for all of comes true!
MoneyTalkWithL@LarissaFernand
@HyderabadiChic3 Feelings.
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It’s unfortunate that regulatory “actions” come when it gets too close to “too late”! Letting USD/INR close to 95 pulls 100 into the radar (with 92-93.50 as base) causing havoc in debt markets pushing 2-10Y yield curve into 6.40-7.0% up by 80-85 bps pricing in 50 bps rate hike!
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INR free fall from 90 to 95 could have been stopped through enforcement of administrative strictures on speculative play between on-shore OTC/ETF and offshore NDF where the spread has widened to over 30 paisa that has caused demand overrun in onshore OTC/ETF..
Dr Aniruddha Malpani, MD@malpani
The RBI is going to realise that you cannot manipulate the markets for too long. The rupee is crashing because it deserves to crash. This is the result of a corrupt and incompetent government which promotes crony capitalists at our expense.
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Why cap banks NOP at $100M? Why not at square position to avoid front-running the demand for USD/INR in onshore spot & forward markets?
When structural demand-supply bottlenecks on demand-supply will remain through FY27, it’s in order to cut the momentum from speculative play.
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India handled FY21 Crisis well when GDP contracted by 9.7% and CPI elevated at 6.6% followed by “V” shaped recovery!
FY27 can see GDP & CPI converging ~5% maintaining double-digit nominal growth, hence no need to call this phase as doom’s day!
Settle at 6.5-7% & 4.5-5% in H2!
M K Venu@mkvenu1
I have no hesitation in saying that the reckless/illegal war by Trump & Netanyahu could knock off about 1.5 to 2 percentage points of India's GDP,increase inflation,delay full recovery of economy, postpone indefinitely FDI/FII inflows,further weaken Re.The poor is worst hit.
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