Michael

H3N2’s surge across Asia can be traced to one key change — HA N158D, which removes a glycan near the α2,6 receptor-binding site. This tweak helps the virus stick to airway cells more easily and evade antibodies. Smart to mask up + vaccinate because the flu’s evolving fast.

@NSWHealth Perfect.

NSW Health is advising people in South Western Sydney to be alert for signs and symptoms of measles after being notified of a confirmed case. This person has had no known contact with anyone else with measles and did not attend any known exposure locations in Sydney.

@snpoehlm QF.1 also showing some traction there

A highly interesting and concerning trend: the strong increase in BA.3.2* frequency in Scotland and England appears to be paralleled by a marked rise in COVID incidence among the very young. Worth close monitoring. #BA32

@ChristosArgyrop @SalvMattera I think we find out eventually that it’s just immune exhaustion reducing certain inflammatory outputs.

@SalvMattera You get fucked up for only a year is a weird message to flex

The authors of this study no doubt spent hundreds of hours of their lives on this - all of that time was completely wasted. As you would expect just from the headline, this study suffers from numerous methodological problems and biases. I'd be ashamed to have my name associated with it. A few examples: ​1. The authors compare patients who had a healthcare visit and tested positive for COVID to patients who had a healthcare visit and tested negative for COVID. ​Fine, but people do not go to the doctor and get a PCR test for no reason. The "control" group that tested negative for COVID was sick enough, or exposed enough, to warrant a medical visit and a test. This means they really don't have a control group. If not COVID, those people will have other infections that can also cause long lasting symptoms. Thus, the study is not comparing the effects of COVID to a healthy baseline. It is comparing Long COVID to "Long Flu", etc. This makes the excess risk of COVID look less significant. ​2. ​PCR tests are not perfect, and their accuracy depends heavily on timing. ​The "test-negative" group will contain false negatives due to people who tested too early or too late. If these false negatives go on to develop Long COVID, it dilutes the difference between the two groups. ​3. And finally the worst of all: billing codes. This methodological flaw is well known to anyone with even a passing interest in this space. It should be disqualifying from ever doing research on Long COVID. Long COVID symptoms (brain fog, PEM, etc) do not easily fit into billing codes, and many doctors don't understand them, so they don't get coded at all. ​ The authors conclude that patients see a "return to baseline health within approximately one year" due to lack of billing codes. This doesn't mean that they returned to health - only that they stopped seeking treatment. Which makes sense, since there are no effective treatments for Long COVID, and the ones that do exist aren't found within the traditional medical system.

@JontiAllegra 💯 check out this sudden growth rate in Singapore — one of the few places left with relatively strong surveillance standards.

ooh this is more the kinda legs you'd expect to see on the next covid variant sweep ruther'n BA.3.2 piddling about

@snpoehlm I think what we are seeing is simply competitive balance in a highly immune heterogeneous population.

1/3 It has been noted on X that the late attempt of BA.3.2 at dominance and its apparent potential for persistence alongside other lineages may be unusual. Does this observation reflect a measurable epidemiological pattern rather than perception alone?

@richardhirschs1 @WHO Will be very interesting to see how it performs.

⚠️Mpox: recombinant virus with genomic elements of clades Ib and IIb - @WHO Viruses mix and mutate, variant recombinant viruses result. Now MPOX 1b and 2b have produced a recombinant virus in England and India. I’ve documented previous Mpox mutations on my timeline, especially the fast moving IIb G1 variant in Sierra Leone 👇👇. x.com/richardhirschs… x.com/richardhirschs… who.int/emergencies/di…

@mysteriousrona x.com/mrmickme2/stat…

@mrmickme2 What do you think about the NB.1.8.1 rebound in the U.S? 🤔

@snpoehlm Week 4 is probably the most decently sampled one. Maybe decreasing for the same reason — as NB.1.8.1 adapts and takes over from BA.3.2 which acted as a gap filler? Can’t think of any other reason for these unpredictable changes.

@mrmickme2 A marked uptick in week 4, but aside from that nothing particularly unusual from my point of view. I’m more curious about why BA.3.2 levels seem to be decreasing.

BA.3.2* frequency in Denmark and England is above 50%. In France 🇫🇷, the BA.3.2* frequency is now increasing. The increase appears to come at the expense of XFG*, as observed in other countries.

@BigBadDenis We need mandatory quarantine for unvaccinated people returning from measles hotspots. Enough of these make their way in and things will quickly get out of control.

NSW: Measles alert for Sydney’s Inner West "NSW Health is advising people in the Inner West to be alert for signs and symptoms of measles after being notified of 2 confirmed cases." Source: health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/202…

@doctorsaluja @CyFi10 Yes, indeed but needs close monitoring also — if there were broad T-cell impairment, we’d expect consistent age-shifted severity across multiple pathogens and reactivation signals like shingles — not just a bad flu season due to strain type or a transient TB rise for that matter.

@mrmickme2 @CyFi10 #influenza may be the first easy thing to see epidemilogically.Maybe #tuberculosis is not far behind

UPDATE: LA county poised to cross above last years Flu peak! LeonardiEffect?

@BigBadDenis Australia very much signalling a significant infection uptick. Waning mucosal IgA / NAbs after the prior wave back in June/July. Now XFG Spike carrying a cluster of RBD changes to evade class 1/2 RBD epitopes.

🇦🇺AUSTRALIA Weekly COVID Update: 13 Feb 2026 🔹WA: ⬆️ (+39.5%) Avg 18/day in hospital 🔹SA: ⬆️ (+31.6%) 🔹QLD: ⬆️ (+27.6%) 35 in hospital 🔹NSW: ⬆️ (+23.0%) 🔸VIC: Next update: 20 Feb 🔸TAS: Next update: 6 Mar 🔹Aged Care: Australian Government ended weekly COVID-19 reporting

@YouAreLobbyLud Mask use and some form of barrier nasal spray particularly before take off and after landing could provide a decent safety buffer. If only most people bothered to adapt to the new normal.

Qantas Boeing 737, Sydney to Perth. Air quality is, once again, much, much worse when the aircraft is on the ground using gate power.

@JontiAllegra I think Nabs and mucosal IgA have really diminished in a large chunk of the pop and so the viral swarm is able to find something that’s able to breakthrough. Those infected better hope that memory B cells and T cells are able to adequately limit its duration.

@mrmickme2 very low - will be interesting to see what happens in the months to come

Australia’s most populous state now showing clear signs of a significant surge in Cov infections. Just goes to show that you can’t keep a bad virus down no matter how much you pretend it doesn’t exist anymore.

@JontiAllegra Low sample volumes but could be due to XFG or potentially even BA.3.2 taking over the show.

@mrmickme2 hmmm could well be the deferred summer wave - on the other hand we've seen these kinds of little stochastic wobbles - a bit up, a bit down - since November want to see it sustaining with a clear variant dominance takeover to really call it

@JessieTG1997 This one has come later than expected. Still, looking at 2 x waves per annum — with all the consequences that come with that.

@mrmickme2 This correlates with school and work starting back after our summer holidays. This surge happens every year.

The Flu A (K clade) circulating in Europe has been brutal. Lots of bad illness from it.

@snpoehlm Yes indeed. Can you tell which sublineage?

Notable BA.3.2 „comeback“