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이사 dojjunn@dojjunn
@senimemancing @stockmapping Orang-orang kok jago banget ya
Indonesia
Sol Sol
1.9K posts
Sol Sol
@msolstocks
“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”
Katılım Ocak 2023
265 Takip Edilen1.4K Takipçiler
Sol Sol retweetledi
a bit of self promotion: we build proxy of shocks to commodity demand and supply beyond oil!
(link: cepr.org/publications/d…)
- negative macro effects of curr conflict are likely amplified once you also account for non-oil commodities
- effects are worse for importing countries
Evgenia Passari@evgenia_passari
1/13 As Middle East tensions escalate, markets fixate on oil prices. But our new research suggests the economic fallout from Iran conflict goes way beyond oil as the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint—remains closed, with some countries facing harder recoveries than others 🧵
English
Market merah mending tani aja
Sol Sol@msolstocks
Kali ini ngikut saran emak Rubah cuan saham sawit jadi aset tanah🙏🏼
Indonesia
Sol Sol retweetledi
Happy to announce the 2nd Edition of Central Banking 101. This edition updates the data and adds 15% more content, including sections on SOFR transition, Treasury buy backs, SVB run, private credit etc. Available on amazon worldwide.
Thank you for you attention to this matter.
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that's how money can change your mood in seconds 🤣😭
us? ❤️🔥@UsMomentsDaily
POV: you’re smiling like an idiot watching this
English
Sol Sol retweetledi
Quote favorit untuk menggambarkan seberapa powerful Bond Market.
Bond Vigilantes = "Polisi" pasar keuangan global.
Kalau kebijakan fiskal dianggap tidak sustainable, mereka eksekusi: jual bonds, yield naik, pemerintah nurut.
Bukan cuma Clinton yang merasakannya.
Liz Truss resign 45 hari setelah gilt yield meledak.
Trump pause tariff persis saat yield spike ke 4.51%.
Tigor Siagian, CFA, FRM@tigorsiagian
James Carville, mantan advisor presiden Clinton pernah bilang gini: “I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the Pope or a . 400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the Bond Market. You can intimidate everybody.”
Indonesia
Sol Sol retweetledi
Kenapa Trump sering tiba2 keluarkan GOOD NEWS ketika UST 10Y yield naik/ada di area 4.3%–4.5%? COINCIDENCE? Saya rasa tidak.
Saya coba backtest 17 event tariff pivot Trump sejak Jan 2025.
Dari 17 kali Trump bikin "good news" (tariff pause, trade deal, soften stance):
• 12 dari 17 event (71%) terjadi saat yield ≥ 4.3%.
• Saat yield di atas 4.5%: 3/3 kali Trump langsung lunak, yield turun semua.
• Saat yield di bawah 4.3%: Trump santai, jarang ada konsesi.
Bukti paling jelas: 9 April 2025.
• Seminggu sebelumnya yield spike dari 4.0% ke 4.4%.
• Bond market mulai jual US Treasury besar-besaran.
• Hari itu juga Trump umumkan 90-day tariff pause untuk 75+ negara.
Utang US = $36 triliun.
Setiap yield naik 1% = tambahan $360 miliar/tahun bunga.
US harus refinance $9–10T utang tiap tahun.
Setiap 10bps lebih tinggi = +$9B biaya permanen selamanya.
BOND MARKET IS THE REAL BOSS.
Trump boleh bikin kebijakan apapun.
Tapi kalau bond vigilantes mulai jual, dia balik badan.
Yield 4.3%–4.5% bukan sekadar angka teknikal.
Itu batas toleransi fiskal US.
Manage your portfolio accordingly.
Indonesia
Sol Sol retweetledi
Menurut penasihat keuangan salah satu nasihat keuangan terbaik yg justru jarang dibahas adalh memilih pasangan hidup yg tepat. Walau ga umum, tapi menurut mereka hal itu adalah salah 1 keputusan finansial plg besar dlm hidup.
Karena kita tdk cuma berbagi hidup dgn pasangan, tapi jg berbagi keputusan, kebiasaan & prioritas berikut konsekuensi finansialnya.
Pasangan bisa jadi pendukung terbesar atau malah penghambat. Jika pasangan selaras ttg nilai hidup, bijak mengelola uang & saling mendukung, maka bisa melangkah lbh jauh & lebih cepat.
Sumber: Kiplinger personal finance (Apr 26), "the best money advice of all time."
Indonesia
Nama ditambah bendera aja udah aneh
SobatMiskinTV@MiskinTV_
Kok ada ya orang sebegitu 'nyinyir'nya sama Muhammadiyah. Sampai muncul kata 'songong'
Indonesia
Sol Sol retweetledi
If you invest in the stock Market, Why should You Care About The Bond Market?
English
Jebol gak nih kira2? @MYasfika
The Long View@HayekAndKeynes
Gold stopped right at trend line. Prob good for a bounce.
Indonesia
Sol Sol retweetledi
There's No Strategic Fertilizer Reserve
Step back and look at the architecture of global fertilizer supply.
▪️ China is restricting exports through August 2026
▪️ Russia and Belarus remain constrained
▪️ The Middle East now faces direct disruption
All 3 pillars took a serious hit within the same cycle.
There is no swing supplier ready to absorb this
Unlike oil, nobody has been stockpiling ammonia in underground caverns.
G7 countries don’t maintain fertilizer reserves the way they maintain oil stockpiles.
There's no reserve valve when the system tightens
Katusa Research@KatusaResearch
The Worst Possible Moment About 50% of the nitrogen applied to U.S. corn goes in during spring planting. A vessel loaded in the Persian Gulf today takes 30 days to reach a U.S. port And another 3 to 4 weeks to reach interior farm markets. The American Farm Bureau Federation sent an urgent letter to the White House on March 9th. And their message was direct: fertilizer is stranded in the Middle East during the most critical window of the agricultural calendar. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed publicly that roughly 25% of American farmers have not yet secured their fertilizer for this spring. The choice facing those farmers is ugly. They can reduce nitrogen application, switch from corn (which needs heavy nitrogen) to soybeans. Or, absorb the cost and bet on crop prices recovering. None of those options are good. One Iowa corn grower put the math in plain terms. Anhydrous ammonia cost him $492 a ton in 2021. By January 2025, it was $745. Corn prices barely moved. Now add the current shock on top of that. At current levels, it takes roughly 133 bushels of corn to buy one ton of urea, the highest ratio since the 2022 spike.
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