Matt Squire

@matt_horncastle Last I remember here in New Zealand we do. Either passports or License.

You should need to show a photo government issued ID to vote. Voting should be treated more seriously than buying a beer.

I'll back @JosephMooneyMP ‘s point, there is a large movement instigated by foreign actors mainly using social media as a vehicle - see Europe & USA - who are riding the wave of genuine concern. The actors will end up using this concern to further destabilise social cohesion, thus making it harder to address genuine concerns that constituents have without making it worse.

White people voicing alarm about demographic replacement in white countries on X is legitimate. Unless the allegation here is that this is being cooked up by a foreign government as part of an espionage campaign or something.

@JosephMooneyMP based on the agreement wording and contents it’s a fair assessment that the deal itself isn’t in our favour or best interest. The agreement heavily favours India while putting further pressure on an already struggling country and aspects of which can’t handle further stress. (Happy to share the main points for concern if it’s of help.) That being said we should make a deal with India, but preferably one that benefits us in the areas we need it.

Pretty odd antics on New Zealand X this week about a free trade deal with India, a country that is on track to be one of the worlds largest economies, is a democracy in a world where those are very rare and authoritarianism is growing rapidly, and provides a massive new market for our trading nation in an era of the greatest geopolitical uncertainty in the last 80 years. Rather than celebrating that; some have been trying to replicate some of the “great replacement” social media angst sweeping Europe - in some cases for what appear to be cynical political reasons, for others out of misunderstanding driven by what they’ve seen from those trying to scare them at a time when they already feel uncertain about the world. The reality is that New Zealand’s sovereignty over permanent immigration, residency pathways, and citizenship remains fully intact. The agreement is limited to temporary mobility, and does not create or lock in any permanent outcomes.

Tariff reductions seem extremely lopsided - in favour of India. In relation to dairy it’s excellent, but the trade offs far outweigh the benefit of that specific case. They get no tariffs upfront for access to selling into NZ whereas we get limited and staged rollouts in return selling into India. It seems we have give more than we are likely to receive in return so it’ll only benefit a small fraction where the impact of those decisions affect a wider sample. It also puts pressure on our local industry’s as they will now have to compete with goods of a cheaper and less quality.

@msqu1re We get substantial tariff reductions immediately, phased reductions in dairy. If the agreement required the stated investment levels that could be a problem, but it's only an aspirational target over a long horizon.

More trade agreements with more places also builds more resilience through more options when the world goes a bit crazy.

I would normally agree with you, but this deal is a NET negative for New Zealand as it goes against what’s needed for the country to stabilise and grow. We give out more than what we receive - at least based on my understanding of the agreement wording - and asks more of us than what we are realistically like to get in return. The deal doesn’t bring any tangible and useful value, but it will cost us and place more stress on an already fragile local ecosystem - meaning local skill and local production.

@msqu1re NZ better off with the deal than without. Haven't assessed relativity. Definitely good for NZ though.

@EricCrampton Having gone through it, the value of the deal leans towards India and less towards building value and capability for New Zealand.

@msqu1re Simply not true.

@TaxpayersUnion Nothing good can come of it, unless it’s a revolution of accountability and reform of collective mission.

About every fifty years New Zealand seems to have a revolution (of sorts) what do you think the next one will bring?

@chrisluxonmp Yes, but not when the deal goes against us! The FTA with India heavily favours them, with little value to us.

Trade is important stuff. Here’s why.

@NZNationalParty The deal with India is one side and provides little value to New Zealand and favours India.

You would have seen National just signed a Free Trade Agreement with India - but there’s another deal that’s already delivering huge results for New Zealanders. Two years ago, the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement came into force. Since then, our exports to the EU have grown by more than $3 billion. But what does that mean for Kiwis back here at home? It means businesses are selling more, hiring more people, and paying higher wages. It means more work on farms and orchards, more shifts in factories, more freight through our ports, and more local businesses with the confidence to hire and grow. We’re seeing that growth in the sectors New Zealand does best - Kiwifruit exports are up nearly a third to $1.2 billion. Meat exports up 38% to $1.95 billion. Dairy exports up 58% One in four Kiwi jobs are linked to trade. So when we open new markets overseas, we create more opportunities right here at home. That’s why National is so focused on getting more trade deals. Because when New Zealand sells more to the world, Kiwi families are better off.

While there are some limited benefits to New Zealand in the agreement, the overall deal represents a net negative. It is unlikely to strengthen our country’s capabilities or build national wealth.

𝗢𝗻𝗲-𝘄𝗮𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗶𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁. New Zealand has pledged to promote private-sector investment into India over 15 years, with no equivalent commitment or target from India in return.

Based on the four points identified below, the deal struck by the New Zealand Government with India must be assessed as a poor deal for New Zealand as it offers limited value and will not meaningfully contribute to the growth and development our country needs over the coming decades. 🧵

@TheZeitgeistNZ It was called the Commonwealth until those who are brighter disestablished it and let it go to ruin.

Starmer wants to use the Iran war as an excuse to undo Brexit. Now is the time for Anglosphere nations like New Zealand, Australia, and Canada to instead propose a CANZUK-style alliance.

@matt_horncastle Arguably required, but high risk of potential failure.

What is your opinion on the Iran war?

@EricCrampton Price rises are all fine proportionally and in context, but 2x preemptive hikes in prices could be seen as price gouging by retailers. Likely contributing to hording behaviour, which in the long run has a negative effect on reserves.

I still think that the first thing government should be doing is reassuring fuel companies that it's perfectly fine to increase prices to reflect risk and real option value, and reminding people that increasing prices now helps reduce the risk of bad outcomes later.

@chrisluxonmp Stop the price gouging by the retailers! The only ones who profit from the hikes are the retailers who brought the fuel at a lower price well before the “conflict”. Note; from this point onwards it would be expected to rise, but they jumped the gun.

Global conflict is pushing up fuel prices, and I know some Kiwis may be worried about supply or whether restrictions could be needed. Here’s what you need to know. Our first priority in managing the impact of global fuel disruption is ensuring New Zealand has the fuel we need to protect jobs, livelihoods and the wider economy. Right now, there’s no need for fuel restrictions. New Zealand has sufficient supply, and we’re planning ahead to stay that way. We’ve updated our National Fuel Plan to make sure New Zealand is well positioned to respond to any disruption, whatever the global environment brings. Higher prices are putting pressure on households, so we’re providing targeted, temporary support to low and middle-income families to help with the cost of fuel. We’ve targeted that support to ensure we help working families under pressure, without repeating the mistakes of Covid, where massive spending drove up debt and pushed inflation to a 32-year high. We cannot control global oil markets or international conflicts, but sticking to a careful economic plan is how we can get through this global shock and protect New Zealand’s future.