
mikpoly
163 posts

mikpoly
@multiw0rd
Polymarket trader · Web3(Solidity)






















I will make +$100k in profit if the US and Israel do NOT strike Iran this month 5 days ago, I bought "no US strike in January" at 37c. Today it's 80c (+113%) I think fair value is 90c+ The key question to ask: Has something changed that would make them strike NOW vs. not striking before? Here's my thesis 🧵 (1/5)








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Putting $10,000 on the Greenland market — here’s why Right now the odds are inflated due to hype, uncertainty, and attention. But that attention is already fading — you can see it on X and in the market chart. I expect the odds to correct back to the real value (around 86%–87%) within the next 10 days. When that happens, I’ll lock in profits — aiming for $600–700 on the move. That’s an APR of roughly 225%–270%. Not betting on the outcome. Just trading the sentiment cycle. @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade






