nocommas

936 posts

nocommas

nocommas

@n0commas

it is the courage to continue that counts

Katılım Ocak 2021
698 Takip Edilen4.1K Takipçiler
nocommas
nocommas@n0commas·
a lot of $seda sell pressure on this announcement however, let me explains the scenarios bull case for seda: -vali handles simple outcomes while seda handles programmable custom outcomes -builders launching custom/exotic/binary/sports/structured products will need to rely on low-latency programmable oracles like seda -massive net positive... more trusted native outcome markets = higher total vol, users and builders on hl. hl just confirmed market validation and oracle demand -seda already powers 24/7 equities/indices/rwas hip-3s and many hip-4 event/binary resolutions -long term positioning as it becomes the hyperliquid's default programmable oracle layer while expanding multi-chain bear case: -displacement for the simplest prediction markets -validators could expand automated newsfeed overtime and cover more edge cases -canonical markets absorbs most liquidity and seda gets a smaller slice of upside -short-term narrative hit (oracles not needed) -reduce demand if majority of settled vol examples of simple vs custom oracle demand: simple: will btc close above $110K on 5/30? custom: player X scores 3+ goals AND team wins by 2+ simple: standardized official markets with unambigious rules and objective data sources custom: fully customizable outcome contracts with complex, non-standard or exotic rules bottom line is simple events are strong and proven demand. however custom/programmable is early but accelerating. the best way to describe the comparison is moneyline vs parlay we know parlay got demands
Yaugourt.hl@Yaugourt

HIP-4 update. This one is big. Hyperliquid just removed the need for external oracles on prediction markets. The validator set itself is now the oracle. The same 24 validators that sign blocks every 70ms, secure $3B+ in deposits, and vote bridge withdrawals now deploy and settle prediction markets natively. Automated newsfeed software running as part of regular chain operations. Deployment and resolution through onchain validator vote. No Chainlink. No Pyth. No UMA. No third party. Closed circuit. Polymarket uses UMA. Kalshi is centralized. Hyperliquid just made real-world event resolution a native chain function. Hyperliquid.

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nocommas
nocommas@n0commas·
here is an idea for trading terminals/bots: offer yield on unclaimed cashback make cashback pda escrow
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nocommas
nocommas@n0commas·
The next hyperliquid bet isn't another perp dex, it's the Oracle layer when i wrote this last year, hyperliquid:native was $40 and $SEDA was $0.07 (release of hip3) hype is now $63 and seda is $0.05 (release of hip4) @sedaprotocol is a directional bet that @HyperliquidX ecosystem will continue to grow and capture tradfi's volume (hip3 rwa) along with other onchain volume (hip4 prediction markets etc) hip3 was released on mainnet around 10/13/25 same time as my quoted post. hip-3 allowed builder-deployed perp. today, hip3 OI is around ~$50b usd. (source:" dune.com/coingecko_cont…) hip-4 was released 5/2/26, a few days ago. hip4 allows outcome markets/prediction markets etc. it also allows options. if hip3 = stock/equities/underlyings. this gives you linear continuous leveraged exposure to an asset's price with ongoing funding rates and liquidation risk. hip4 = options/derivatives. this gives you binary/event contracts that settle on a specific outcome. they deliver non-linear payoffs, have fixed expiry dates and limited risk (fully collaterialized with no liquidations). exactly the same contract terms as binary options in tradfi. simply put: you trade the underlying (hip3 perp) for directional bets and derivative (hip4 outcomes) for probability-based, asymmetric payoffs. same structure as trading apple stocks/futures vs apple call/put options. options vol > future vol in traditional markets. in jan 2026, @tradexyz made up 80% of hip3 OI. today, it makes up 95% of OI. it's gotten less diversified. my bet is that as hype continues to surpass new milestones, we should see more entrants as builders/vcs follow the volume. (source: loris.tools/hip3?dex=xyz) this brings me to my next bet: SEDA powers hip-* markets (dreamcash, perpsdotfun, nunchi, computeindex, stratiumX, hyperoddx, outcome.xyz). seda offers a programmable oracle. every oracle request burns $seda. there is some inflation risk but burns can offset this if volume picks up. (which i explain why i think it will above). if you are a hype maxi, you would want some exposure here dexscreener.com/base/0x681d6e4…
nocommas@n0commas

thesis on $seda (you don't want to miss this one) thanks to @0xreubs for sharing his find and thesis. (t.me/reubensjournal…) @sedaprotocol is an oracle on base built for hip3 perps markets on @HyperliquidX. similar to pyth or chainlink, but optimized for programmable, onchain derivative feeds. (read more: phantom.com/learn/crypto-1…) hip3 lets anyone deploy perps markets on hyperliquid by staking 500,000 hype. anyone can launch perps for stocks, interest rates, or prediction market outcomes without approval. this shifts hyperliquid from curated listings to permissionless market creation, unlocking trillions in potential volume. seda powers hip3 with real-time data feeds. every oracle update burns a small amount of seda, creating a direct link between network activity and token deflation. key points -powers price and data feeds for hip3 markets -hyperliquid spot listing confirmed soon (spot is on testnet atm) -currently tradable on base (seda/weth on aerodrome) -low liquidity, high asymmetry mechanics -each data request burns ~0.03 seda -100m updates = 3m seda burned daily -pyth runs ~208m updates per day -full supply could burn within months at scale integrations -kalshi and polymarket use seda to post prediction market data onchain -connects financial and event-driven markets under one oracle layer -50 builders testing hip3 integrations now valuation -market cap around 45m -deflation directly tied to oracle usage -demand grows with hip3 market creation. thesis -seda is a leveraged bet on hip3 growth -more perps markets mean more oracle updates and more seda burned -holding seda is exposure to the data layer powering perps liquidity -seda ties real data flow to token value -if hip3 scales, seda becomes the gas for every data update across hyperliquid and beyond (if you're bullish on hl, seda is your beta) other accounts to check out regarding this trade: @realpeterjm, @x256xx watch this video from @Matt_Peters92 (head of marketing for seda) you can swap on @AerodromeFi (aerodrome.finance) dex link: dexscreener.com/base/0x681d6e4… here is your upside if hl wins, seda burns

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nocommas
nocommas@n0commas·
has anyone studied the correlation between influential X accounts and the price impact on related assets? for example, when @FirstSquawk or @bwenews etc post breaking news about oil, rates, or geopolitics, is there a measurable reaction in the price of oil futures or whatever asset is being discussed? more broadly im curious about the aggregate influence of attention flows across both tradfi instruments and their onchain equivalents including memecoins, narrative tokens, prediction markets, etc wonder if there is a journal out there for this
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Yaugourt.hl
Yaugourt.hl@Yaugourt·
HIP-4. New outcome spotted on testnet. Fed rate change in June. Hyperliquid.
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nocommas
nocommas@n0commas·
@base before base leaves a sour taste for those there in $openhuman read second to last paragraph bid tokens that are already integrated and adopted you already know the outcome of the claim fee meta from bags..
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nocommas
nocommas@n0commas·
a lot of @base projects (or ai projects on chain) are early to valuations about $6bn in fresh vc funding (dragonfly, parafi, haunventures, a16z, bcap, paradigm) in 2026 with clarity act, we are getting closer to clear sec vs cftc rules and path to commodity status with real capital flowing into decentralized ai once networks start proving out their decentralization, tokens would be treated as digital commodities under cftc which means easier secondary market trading/listings, lower legal overhang, and hopefully more institutional participation... aka liquidity if you're starting, you should look for projects that utilize their token in some nature. i think the "here bro claim" tokens will have lower ceilings than what we've experienced shortly after moltbook and agents launches. however, there will be projects that have great attention trade (aka pls bro claim your token). but if i were to look, i would look at projects that have some tokenomics. we might even see more founders raise/launch on chain with clearer disclosure rules. primarily driven by the ai-appropriate rails that builders have been building for quite some time now (x402 for example) we're just getting started
a16z crypto@a16zcrypto

The crypto industry is maturing on multiple fronts at once. Policy advancing. Revenue diversifying. Security evolving. Founders are showing up. Four pieces from this week:

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nocommas@n0commas·
@elonmusk just need a model E to complete S E X
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nocommas@n0commas·
elon on eth (e for e) sama on sol (s for s) is this a good left curve logic
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nocommas
nocommas@n0commas·
imma go private soon
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nocommas
nocommas@n0commas·
robotics on chain will catch up
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Ansem
Ansem@blknoiz06·
hype/sol vvv/eth zec/btc
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Nikita Bier
Nikita Bier@nikitabier·
@ianmiles Perhaps it's not the algorithm but rather, the sudden pivot from politics to promoting scam coins? I have seen users lose some reach after engaging in criminal activity and robbing their followers.
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0xJeff
0xJeff@0xJeff·
The State of Onchain AI Inference ​ 2 giants dominate the landscape while 4 players geared up to disrupt the segment. ​ 1. Venice → fastest-growing uncensored/private AI pioneer serving 50-80B tokens/day (recently hit 80B ATH). Estimated ARR at ~$12M-14M ​ 2. Chutes → fully decentralized serverless inference network on Bittensor, serving 50B-80B tokens/day (~55B 7d avg.), Estimated ARR at ~$6M ​ 3. Dolphin AI → one of the top uncensored AI labs, developed Venice flagship uncensored models, on track to launch v2 of its own peer-to-pool inference network in ~4 weeks (powered by consumer GPUs) ​ 4. OpenServ → full-stack AI infrastructure platform and reasoning engine (SERV/BRAID), focused on serving deterministic inference to enterprises + OpenServ is one of the most active AI agent launchpad right now ​ 5. SolRouter → cryptographically private AI inference layer powered by Arcium MPC + AWS TEE + OpenServ Reasoning framework ​ 6. Warden Protocol → P2P AI compute marketplace purpose-built for autonomous onchain agents ​ Key success factors: Inference price, compute costs, reliability, privacy guarantee, compute/inference verification cost, network design (anti-gaming/slashing), tokenomics design, tools, model coverage, and more ​ More analysis/breakdown on the landscape in the After Hour this week (tmr).
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0xJeff@0xJeff

DeFi Tokenomics is coming to AI ​ Venice introduced DIEM → stake VVV, earn ~18% APY and mint DIEM, tokenized inference credit that generates $1/day in platform credits till perpetuity. ​ BUT, there are many people who minted DIEM but has no use for it. $1/day just goes to waste. AntSeed built on this premise, takes the $1/day inference credit, and sell it to AI users who're interested in discounted credits. ​ Yields for DIEM owners, cheaper inference for AI users, yields on top of yields for VVV stakers. ​ Dolphin pushes the design space a step further: - Perpetual inference credits accrue directly to POD - Node operators, validators, investors align interests by staking - Staking auto-compound yields from network buybacks - The longer the stake, the higher the multiplier for node rewards - Unstaking triggers 3 months of lockup ​ There's veCRV-like mechanic where stakers will be able to re-direct their unused inference credits to other people — instead of bribe market for voting power, we're getting bribe market for inference. ​ My Idea: Just like when Penpie & Equilibria were building on top of Pendle's vePENDLE (2023-25), governance aggregators could accumulate POD, stake them, create liquid wrappers/maximize yields for stakers via the bribe market. ​ Pendle itself could list both DIEM & POD in the future, and create PT/YT markets where investors can speculate on yields with YT if they think inference demand is high OR fixed the yields with PT if they think inference demand is going down. ​ Looping strategy could also be built around PTs (or around original assets directly), essentially enabling leverage inference farming ​ Cool DeFi tokenomics design is definitely coming back

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nocommas
nocommas@n0commas·
is @pmarca in the trenches with us?
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nocommas@n0commas·
just sharing this userscript to highlight msgs by discord user ids most groups have one giant chat with too many ragebait/no alpha comments this just highlights msgs from certain users helps you filter the chatter copy and paste this userscript to tampermonkey extension pastebin.com/nRUDK967 to get user id on discord, right click username > copy user id
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nocommas
nocommas@n0commas·
okay hear me out on rationale here DFV has been afk forever even if it is hacked what if this goes higher bc he's been afk forever and now he has to be summoned to address it all while @gamestop is trying to bid on @eBay 👀
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Keşfet

@sedaprotocol @HyperliquidX @tradexyz @FirstSquawk @bwenews @Yaugourt @base @elonmusk