Rafael

1/ Where is the #Bitcoin bottom? $BTC has fallen to $62K, nearly 50% below its ATH and down 24% in a month. Price has now worked through the upper rungs of our pricing framework, moving into the cluster of valuation levels where past cycles have found their floor. 🧵

@anti_fragile @claudeai

@claudeai Great, my weekly limit is at 99% and resets on the 13th 😅

We're extending access to Claude Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 12.

$BTC volume sent from long-term holders in profit to exchanges has faded and sits near its lowest since early 2023. LTH profit-taking has effectively switched off.

@Cryptollica @glassnode Agreed. Fees associated to runes have been consistently above 10% for the past months (peaked above 30% on one day) after a long period in the low single-digits. Let's see if how sustainable this demand is. For now, it's only a few addresses responsible for these transactions.

@n3ocortex @glassnode Interesting data. If runestones are reaching ~25% of daily fees, this is no longer just blockspace spam/noise. It becomes part of the long-term fee-market question for Bitcoin. real test is whether this demand persists after the speculative attention fade.s

What's up with runes? Roughly 2 in 3 #Bitcoin transactions have been runestones, above 70% on many days. They’re not just filling blockspace either: lately runestones accounted for up to ~25% of daily $BTC fees (7DMA). Charts: glassno.de/3RmV3F9

Biggest daily #BTC ETF inflow in >2 months yesterday. Meaningful, but sustained ETF demand is needed for a durable BTC trend shift. The key is follow-through.

Overturn this. 🧏‍♂️ #USABEL

One of our most insightful on chain metrics is the Hyperliquid Entry Price Heatmap. It shows the exact price levels at which traders enter positions. Large longs from $72-76k and shorts from $60k are currently under water, leading to fragility in either direction. glassno.de/44Imuwb

The rolling year-over-year sum of $BTC ETF flows is negative.

Haven't posted this one for a while. But overall this relative strength is encouraging for alts. After being destroyed in relative terms for 2 years, they seem to be finally rounding out quite nicely

I use Codex when I know exactly what needs to be built. Claude feels best when I need to explore and think through the problem. For pure implementation work, Codex feels like the sharper executor. For shaping, research, data analysis, Claude feels like the better collaborator.

Institutional demand isn’t absorbing new $BTC supply – it’s adding to the overhang. ETFs shed 71.6K BTC over the past month, DATs added just 7.5K. Adjusted for issuance, combined flows are −77K #BTC. Until this flips positive, any recovery is fighting net wrapper supply.

The recent $BTC correction appears to have attracted buyers back into the market. Accumulation Trend Scores have turned higher across multiple wallet cohorts, suggesting supply is being absorbed as investors step in following the move to down $60K. glassno.de/4fM7kgm

@Mikanoshi @glassnode x.com/n3ocortex/stat…

@n3ocortex @glassnode Realized price 53.6k, cointime price 51.8k, all prior bottoms were lower than both of these. CVDD was only breached during covid crash iirc.

$BTC's CVDD/Price Ratio is at 0.73 and climbing. At prior cycle lows it peaked near 1 (0.90/0.91/0.95 in 2015/18/22) as price meets the CVDD floor. With the current floor ~$46K, a repeat would point to a bottom near $52–59K, ~12–13 months past the Oct 2025 ATH → Q4 2026.

Caveat: this rests on just 3 cycles (n=3). It assumes the CVDD floor keeps rising (~30%+/yr) and that drawdowns keep shrinking (−85%/−84%/−77%, implied ~−55%). Cycle structure can break and undershoot. A historical pattern read, not a forecast.

@glassnode *not a prediction

8/ This is a prediction, and I don't know where the bottom is. Bottoms are not known in advance – they can only be framed in zones, probabilities, and levels that tell you when the setup is changing. All data and charts: @glassnode

1/ Where is the #Bitcoin bottom? $BTC has fallen to $62K, nearly 50% below its ATH and down 24% in a month. Price has now worked through the upper rungs of our pricing framework, moving into the cluster of valuation levels where past cycles have found their floor. 🧵