نبيل الحامد
63.2K posts

نبيل الحامد
@nalhamid
Son, Brother,Husband,Father, Friend. Peace & justice for all. Never pass opportunity to help. Be humble, respectful & generous. Thankful for what God gave me.

Washington now faces an unwinnable war and an unacceptable deal—a stark lesson in the folly of believing that might makes right.




Your references to “fundamentally different data sets” and “parallel reality” @StrickerNonpro are precisely what prompts me to reply. I think you are overstating the clarity of the case. The JCPOA was never the magic solution some now suggest. It had benefits, but also serious risks, sunset clauses, and strategic consequences that unfolded over time. Even Obama acknowledged the sunset problem: once advanced centrifuges came into play, "in year 13, 14, 15...breakout times would have shrunk almost down to zero" (NPR April 2015). That alone should make us more modest about claiming that one side saw reality while the other lived in fantasy. The deeper flaw in much pro-JCPOA analysis is that it is static. It judges the deal as if its consequences were frozen in 2015. They were not. Over the next eight years — and especially after October 7 — the costs became clearer: the nuclear file had been artificially separated from the regime’s broader system of coercion: missiles, drones, proxies, hostage-taking, maritime threats, regional intimidation, and domestic repression. As I argued in Iran Crisis Notebook #2: The Layered Roots of the Current War, bit.ly/4w3TY4y this war did not begin with the United States or Israel. It began in 1979, when the Islamic Republic launched its revolutionary war against America, Israel, the liberal West, and its own people. The current confrontation is not a war Washington or Jerusalem started; it is their effort to finish a war the regime began and has sustained for 47 years. And on “parallel reality”: I lived and worked in Iran for more than a decade, then spent more than a year in Evin prison, including eight months in IRGC solitary confinement, as a political prisoner and U.S. hostage. I was interrogated for years by senior IRGC officers. I know what a parallel reality looks like. It is the worldview of the Islamic Republic itself: every deal is treated as a tactical instrument in a zero-sum struggle to preserve revolutionary power, in which it is the entire rest of the world that is driving the wrong direction on the highway (to use a Persian joke). The idea that remaining in the JCPOA would have strengthened “pragmatic elements” and pushed Iran in a more moderate direction is, in my view, the real illusion. After the Green Movement was crushed in 2009, genuine reformist politics inside Iran was systematically destroyed. Leaders were imprisoned or exiled. Reformist parties were banned. Newspapers were shut down. I was in prison with some of those people. So yes, data sets matter. But assumptions matter more. And the assumption that the Islamic Republic was gradually moderating is one I simply do not recognize — not from lived experience, not from research, and not from the regime’s own conduct. If there is a parallel reality here, it is the belief that a revolutionary regime built on hostage-taking, repression, proxy warfare, and anti-Western struggle was quietly evolving toward moderation because of a nuclear bargain.

Meet Bassam Ali, a former officer in Assad army. He confessed that him and his group killed at least 8000 patients in the military hospital (detainees from the opposition) in order to sell their organs.








🚨🚨 موقع مراهنات عالمي يضع رهان عن إحتمال إعلان إمارة الشارقة إستقلالها عن الإمارات.










