Miad Maleki

A consequential summer in Iran: water scarcity,degraded power grids,inflation, blockade returning. Yet crises dont moderate regime behavior, so this leverage unlikely to produce a “better deal”. Seizing the moment means empowering millions who saw the war as a chance for freedom.

We’ve been sounding the alarm at @FDD for years: Pickaxe Mountain is Iran’s next hardened enrichment facility, built deep underground where Iran has moved centrifuges and other nuclear equipment. Good to see @POTUS confirm it’s on the target list.

The only solution to 47 years of a terrorist organization exploiting a rich nation to threaten the world is a political transition in Tehran. The data is clear and undeniable. Uprisings in Iran have accelerated: the gap between nationwide revolts has collapsed from 8 years (2009→2017) to just 2–3. The next wave isn't if—it's when, and it will land during President Trump's term. See the chart. Washington must be ready to stand with Iranians when it comes, here are some options: - Limited air support to disrupt IRGC/security forces slaughtering protesters - Offensive cyber to disable regime command, coordination, and IRIB propaganda - Secure messaging, uncensored internet, satellite/radio access for the people - Direct engagement with regime elites and ambassadors to accelerate defections

So dumb. Iran’s tolls were a mafia protection racket to (would be a shame if something happened to that beautiful ship). If the U.S. opens the strait by force it will be protecting ships from Iran — and incurring enormous costs to do so. There’s nothing wrong with charging a substantial fee for that service. Indeed 20% might not even scratch the surface of the actual cost.

Reimpose the naval blockade on the regime in Iran. Ramp up military operations to win the Battle of Hormuz. Dismantle the ICC brick by brick. Senator Graham of blessed memory is smiling that this is a good day.

Saudi just redrew a line with Iran. First Saudi strike in Yemen since 2022, and the target was a runway about to receive a Mahan Air flight from Tehran. Mahan is the Qods Force's airline that flew the Syria airlift under civilian cover for a decade. With its regime decapitated, Iran is probing what the region will still tolerate, and Saudi is right to keep saying no.

The UK has FINALLY designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organization “Under the new framework, membership in the IRGC becomes a criminal offence. It is also illegal to publicly support the organisation, attend its meetings, display its symbols in a supportive manner, provide financial or logistical assistance, recruit on its behalf, or receive material benefit from it.” osint613.com/article/new-th…

Trump on the Strait of Hormuz: “We're gonna guard it, and we're gonna get paid for guarding it, a lot of money. We want to be reimbursed for putting our people in danger. We had a deal, they always break it. We're just gonna hit them very hard. We'll probably run the Strait. We'll be the guardian angel. We should be reimbursed for that."

The region is back to full-on war. On today's FDD Morning Brief, @JSchanzer is joined by @miadmaleki to assess the regime's political, military, and economic standing as the fighting resumes. x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

South Yemeni military says targeted it Houthi-controlled Sanaa airport to stop an Iranian plane from landing. Good to see this. We need the South to keep the Houthis in check. ara.tv/6y88l

“Operation Epic Passage — a combined naval and air mission of self-defense that offers escort to tankers and restores freedom of navigation, all while making clear to Tehran the devastating consequences of breaking the cease-fire.” Game on. nypost.com/2026/05/01/opi…

Over a decade ago with the “Three Amigos” in Munich. It’s fitting Senator Graham spent his final days in Ukraine, standing with a country defending its freedom. Rest in peace.

9/ Bottom Line: Iran has aimed to assassinate senior U.S. officials—including Trump—for years as reflected in official warnings, FBI testimony, and DOJ indictments. So long as the IRGC calls the shots in Iran, that won’t change until they succeed or are stopped.

Such sad news. May his memory be a blessing.

@AutogptAI ممنونم از لطفتون.

دوستان پست های میعاد رو واقعا دست‌کم نگیرید. میعاد تو هر پستش راه حل های اقتصادی خوبی برای مبارزه با رزیم ارائه می‌ده. هم ما هم نماینده هامون باید سواد مبارزه اقتصادی با ایران رو بهبود بدیم و میعاد یکی از قویترین افراد این حوزه هست. #JavidShah‌‌‌‌‌ #king

At the very least, the U.S. should reimpose the American naval blockade on #Iran’s regime. At every turn, when the U.S. deferred to mediators’ irrationally exuberant representations of diplomacy with the Islamic Republic, it has not ended well. There’s a lesson in that. The U.S. needs to prove to the Islamic Republic that it has the will to see this through.

Thanks for the great questions. US sanctions absolutely bite, even if the fuel is consumed inside China. Here are some examples of sanctions impact when it comes to these teapot refineries; 1. Banking: Chinese banks surprisingly comply with US sanctions out of fear of loosing access to dollar clearing, trade finance and correspondent banking. 2. Sellers: Sanctioned refineries struggle to secure non-Iranian crude; some have to rebrand products and rely on opaque traders because reputable suppliers and majors won’t touch them. 3. Services & tech: Designations block access to technology, software, parts and any Western service providers, raising maintenance costs and operational risk. 4. Executives: Managers and owners risk being named on sanctions screening lists, facing asset freezes and travel/visa restrictions even if they never leave Asia. So yes, the fuel stays in China, but sanctions turn these teapots into pariahs, raising costs and creating leverage for the US to push them off Iranian oil.

@miadmaleki What effect do us sanctions have on Chinese teapot refineries? Isn’t the fuel they produce consumed inside China

This a strategic opportunity. Chinese teapot refiners just made their largest purchases of non-sanctioned Middle East crude from Qatar, Iraq & UAE, as Iranian oil sits unsold on tankers. China’s Iranian imports hit 556,000 bpd, lowest since Jan 2023. This is sanctions working. But here’s the strategic opportunity: the only buyers still taking Iranian oil are sanctioned teapots, because legitimate suppliers won’t touch them. They’re trapped in the evasion ecosystem by necessity, not just choice. @USTreasury has leverage here. Offer sanctioned teapots a structured off-ramp: cooperate, disclose, transition to legitimate crude, and earn a pathway back to compliance. Wean them off Iranian oil, collapse the evasion network from the inside. Don’t just punish the last buyers. Recruit them. Deprive the regime of its only remaining market, and bring these refiners back into the rules-based system. reuters.com/business/energ…

RT @therealBehnamBT: Amen. USG needs to adapt a “flexible response” framework here. If sanctions are indeed about behavior change, new choi…