Alex CA retweetledi
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🇮🇷 | NEW Supreme Leader Ayatollah Arafi has been killed in an airstrike…
He was appointed not even 24 hours ago…
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Alex CA
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Alex CA retweetledi
The Hidden Top: my 2025 market view
Years later, after I've posted my January 2023, 2024 and mid 2024 (see bellow), I can still see top callers everywhere, at every local resistance, at every bearish narrative
So I've decided to atack this particular topic: YOU WON'T BE ABLE TO TIME THE PERFECT TOP
TL;DR of my view: H1 2025 higher highs -> H2 2025, lower highs
As per usual,
1. We're starting with the S&P index
Since 2023, I've projected the potential top (not cycle top, but a mini-cycle, into the 2030+ cycle top) at around 5800-6100$ area (1.618 fib)
2 years later we are here. But what comes next, my base case, is that from this 6k area (we maybe go 2-500$ more, doesn't matter) we start the downtrend into Q2-Q3, and before Q4 everyone will be bullish again, just like in the last 2 years, but everyone will be dissapointed
I think a lower high on the S&P will be the case.
Now, the case with FED's rates, as I was saying for a long time, 3-5 rate cuts are not bearish, but after that we should watch when the CPI creeps back up from the lows (it started) and The FED starts to pause rates again!!
2019: we had 2 FOMCs with rates paused - December and February (we all know what happend in March 2020)
Now: higher rates, maybe a 3-fold pause is due.
IF THIS IS THE CASE, and another global shitstorm happens, everyone will look at the pandemic event, rates, probably some trillions printed, and will say the REAL BULLMARKET starts, into H2 2025, because we dodged the bullet again
And that is when the dissapointments start. Lower high in Q4, going down more into 2026 - everyone rekt (and then the real fun starts!!)
In this part of the cycle, I'm not interested in the DXY or yields anymore, I'm only interested in the stupid euphoria that comes next.
2. So, let's get to Bitcoin
When rates paused in 2019, after 3 cuts, BTC had a 63% rally, during the soft landing narrative - BUT - that was a different part of the cycle, we are now later into the cycle than back then
So if my base case happen, BTC has a little room left, based on fibs (we are now at 1.272), 1.4 is at 127k, 1.618 is at 173k (it can also not touch it like in the last cycle)
If rates are cu 25-50 bps from March, then I would not worry and the cycle could be longer, which means I stay spot for longer a build a bigger cash position.
But contrary to my 2023 and 2024 FULL BEAR HITLER, which you all witnessed, for me, now it's time start building a FULL HITLER CASH POSITION, as euphoria will start kicking in with this "soft landing" and other narratives.
I think that if rates are cut aggressively, like 100-200 bps in one FOMC, you know this comes with something on the side. Something not good - I WILL NEVER BECOME A DOOMSTER EITHER WAY!!
And if a global event is coming along with this, everyone will scream BUY BUY BUY - REAL BULL IN THE WINTER!! LOW RATES LIKE IN 2020 BRO - and they will all be wrong. Let's see.
My focus rn will not be on SPX and BTC, ranges are on the charts, my focus is on ETH and alts, because every cycle ends in euphoria, and all I see is scared little girls on Twitter.
4. The most important chart in crypto
XRP is also a good gauge, but I'm focusing on this one: ETHBTC - some good analysts on Twitter pointed out that range, which is a good confluence with my simple use of fib retracements
This is a good example of how people follow narratives and forget to look on different charts to correlate how liquidity is moving in the whole asset class.
This means ETH betas will go ballistic - if you also watch the SOLETH chart (which I also posted a long time ago) you will see that it outperformed for 2 years straight - next phase of the cycle, DOWN!
Cycle targets for ETH - dunno man, put some fibs up and see - I do not own it, I jumped directly to betas, de-fi shit, gaming, AI, memes, because I've already made most of my money with BTC since the bottom
Also check out my cycle post on BTC.D:
x.com/chifoicristian…
4. Total 3 chart - what most fail to understand is that BTC.D looks toppish, but they don't look at total crypto market cap without BTC and ETH, and watch some big caps like: DOT AVAX FIL SAND LTC UNI LINK HBAR etc.
Big players that are not even at the last bull market top, with the TOTAL3 at it. The only thing that pumped in crypto was vaporware tokens, full speculation, rotation from other protocols, and that's it
So my base case for alts, in the next phase, liquidity from outside is coming for eth, de-fi, utility, big players etc. - just watch the XRP chart and you will understand!
Moreover, I think total3 will catch up BTCs moves:
So maybe, just maybe, because everyone is a BTC maxi rn, it's time to focus on strong alts! BTC is doing this pa at a new ATH, while Total3 lags. Now we have trad-fi catalysts for coins (ETFs requests everywhere)
Also maybe, just maybe, if a lower high is on the table for H2 2025, perhaps Total3 makes a higher high - will see
And actually the liquidity is coming for trusted protocols, not from degens, but from institutional investors - the flood gates are already set (ETH ETF)
As always, my charts will not happen with 100% accuracy, some things will be different, but for me, all that matters is positioning: now out 40% from BTC, rotated to alts, 10% cash position which will increase gradually this year (btw I had almost 0% cash positions in 2023 and 2024, with all the money I made, I just reaccumulated more and more).
My posts are public, never deleted a tweet - maybe you should revisit my last market views and see how things developed, to understand that I'm adapting my play as time goes by.
Time > price
I will update my view in the summer maybe, but some of you guys were asking me why don't I do something in English, to go deeper into monthly and weekly updates
So I did.
For 2 years I've been posting all my views, no charge, no paid groups, no VIP class, no course etc.
So for those who want to stay close to my daily/monthly adjustments on charts, here it is:
gameofliquidity.com
What it’s not:
- a paid group
- the end of me posting free on X
- a day trading course
- a get rich quick scheme
- a pump and dump discord scheme
What it is:
- a monthly breakdown from my part, into the charts, to see where we are in the cycle
- 3-5 monthly analyses to cover deep dives into: SPX, BTC, alts, other stocks, DXY, yields, rates, other indicators
Basically I don’t do lessons or courses on how markets work, or ‘how to find the next 100x’, or how to ‘forever solve your money problem’ - these things work for a while, then they don’t - because the market is forward looking - nothing is set into stone! - market adapts - I will too
We also have a discord channel where we talk daily, help each other learn and adapt, chart together. I also hired 4 other people to help with the website, discord, research, so I could stay on my lane and focus on charts
I will keep posting free on X as usual and I don’t recommend this to anyone that hasn’t made money with my free content! If you ask “why should you pay x$ a month for this?” my answer will always be “you shouldn’t”
God bless you! Be a winner, with or without me!
Cristian Chifoi@ChifoiCristian
"2024: Everyone is wrong in the market" This is my mid 2024 market view, into 2025, and we will talk about: Bitcoin, S&P500, DXY, FED rates and the potential recession that should come If you don't know my January 2024 outlook, here's a link, go check it out: x.com/chifoicristian… In there you will see my first S&P500 target of $5500 reached, and also Bitcoin's new all time high before the halving, and today we'll update that outlook to see where we are in the market for the next 6-12 months This is a serious post, and later on I shall return to my trolling bears posts, slashing them open and making fun of them, because being a bear is not profitable unless you find a small window of opportunity - which we shall discuss also Hint: it's smaller than any bear's wife's pussy, but still bigger than any bear's penis Enough! Let's begin! 1. S&P500 index & FED Rates Ahh, a story as old as time, or a bear's insuccess FED Rates are a lagging indicator to know how hot the markets are, but still they give a pretty good tell for when there will be problems. a) September 2007: after 1 year of maintaining rates at 525 bps, we have the first cut, and after 5 more cuts, market was still pretty hot, no sign of recession and big drawdowns. After those 6 cuts, the soft landing narrative installs - "market no dump bro, we fine, we bid" Soft landing meant 2-3 FOMC where FED maintained rates again - THIS IS WHERE PROBLEMS START! During the entire period of cuts, then soft landing - 9 months in total - market remained HOT b) July 2019: after 6 months of maintaining rates at 250 bps, we have the first cut, and 2 cuts after (Sept and Nov 2019) After those 3 cuts, soft landing narrative and 2 FOMCs with no rate cuts: Dec & Jan - and big problems in March, 3rd FOMC that brought rates to zero-ish My guess: this time is not different Right now we have September 2024 for first rate cut (makes sense after 1y of maintaining rates, just like 2007 high rates of 525 bps, and now 550 bps) We should have 3-5 rate cuts, which could mean Sept to January-March time, then some soft landing narrative for 2-3 FOMCs with rates maintained, then a global event, again. SPX up target is $6000ish, down target is $3500+ See my original January 2024 market view, with just the timeline that is different. So basically we could get an extended period of time to reach my targets. Next up... 2. DXY Nothing changed on my DXY view, just the timing. Period 3 should come after the "soft landing" narrative, that means the $ printer machine would go berserk like no other time in American history The Dollar would find its way thru the global economy much easier, much faster, thanks to stablecoins, but this also means double digit inflation on the next wave, 2026+ This would take US assets to a parabolic mania, until end of decade - check my #roaringtwenties posts 3. Bitcoin (& crypto) Based on the short experience with FED rates, maybe this time could be different (Wall Street owned) a) 2019 July first cut: as consensus hit the market, euphoria installed, BTC going from 7400$ to 14000$ in a matter of weeks But then had a downtrend until the soft landing narrative, which meant a last drink before the pandemic war (global event, just like GFC in 2008) Being a speculative 100 bill $ asset, after the first rate cut, its price action failed to follow the S&P, but that could be different today b) September 2024 first rate cut: this could differ (maybe we get a July or Nov/December cut, we would update plan later), but we play the hand we're dealt Either scenario 1 or 2 in play, we're missing a leg up to 90-100k, as euphoria should set in to complete this mid or complete cycle (we will find out later and will update market view) What I really don't know is if the downtrend after rate cuts is happening this time, ETFs and Wall Street, and the fact that we're at 12x the market cap for BTC as an asset, which makes it nonspeculative Which could mean that Scenario 2 is in play, so no downtrend until "soft landing" - we shall see This means that altcoins should have big rallies, as time is more important than price In 2019 for reference, we had almost no time in the market, as in half of 2022 + 2/3 of 2023, so almost no gains in the altcoin market, but... Time > price! More time and price not moving, more agressive pumps later 1.4 trillion $ is my next target before we can talk about trend change, just as BTC next leg up, and maybe an 120-170k extended leg to complete the cycle This could lead to a left translated cycle, but we will see, because the next major printing after the "soft landing narrative" means that scarce asset pump hardest and longest. Just give a follow @ChifoiCristian and stay tuned, it doesn't cost anything. We shall bathe in the blood of our bears and after they're dead, we shall wear their pelts, imbearsonating them to be aware of the next global event after the "soft landing" Hazzah! I shall pin this shit onto my profile
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Alex CA retweetledi
Today, I stepped down as CEO of Binance. Admittedly, it was not easy to let go emotionally. But I know it is the right thing to do. I made mistakes, and I must take responsibility. This is best for our community, for Binance, and for myself.
Binance is no longer a baby. It is time for me to let it walk and run. I know Binance will continue to grow and excel with the deep bench it has.
I’m pleased to announce that @_RichardTeng, our now former Global Head of Regional Markets, has been named the new CEO of Binance today.
Richard is a highly qualified leader and, with over three decades of financial services and regulatory experience, he will navigate the company through its next period of growth. He will ensure Binance delivers on our next phase of security, transparency, compliance, and growth.
Prior to joining Binance, Richard was CEO of the Financial Services Regulatory Authority at Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM); Chief Regulatory Officer of the Singapore Exchange (SGX); and Director of Corporate Finance in the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
With Richard and the entire team, I’m confident that the best days for @Binance and the crypto industry lay ahead.
As a shareholder and former CEO with historical knowledge of our company, I will remain available to the team to consult as needed, consistent with the framework set out in our U.S. agency resolutions.
What’s next for me?
I will take a break first. I have not had a single day of real (phone off) break for the last 6 and half years.
After that, my current thinking is I will probably do some passive investing, being a minority token/shareholder in startups in areas of blockchain/Web3/DeFi, AI and biotech. I am happy that I will finally have more time to spend looking at DeFi.
I can’t see myself being a CEO driving a startup again. I am content being an one-shot (lucky) entrepreneur. Should there be listeners, I may be open to being a coach/mentor to a small number of upcoming entrepreneurs, privately. If for nothing else, I can at least tell them what not to do.
On that note, I am proud to point out that in our resolutions with the U.S. agencies they:
- do not allege that Binance misappropriated any user funds, and
- do not allege that Binance engaged in any market manipulation.
Funds are SAFU!
With that, I look forward to seeing the new leadership take the reins. Please join me in congratulating Richard on his well-deserved promotion.
Onwards!
CZ
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Alex CA retweetledi
I love shorting in a bull market like a fat kid loves cake
Pledditor@Pledditor
.@GarethSoloway is shorting #bitcoin right now
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Alex CA retweetledi
Verificați Galactic Explorer: The Aviator’s Odyssey in NFT creat de AlexCA la Crypto.com NFT! crypto.com/nft/profile?as… prin @cryptocom
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Verificați Galactic Explorer: The Aviator’s Odyssey in NFT creat de AlexCA la Crypto.com NFT! crypto.com/nft/profile?as… prin @cryptocom
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Alex CA retweetledi
#15DuckEvil
This sinister raccoon has a jet-black fur coat that seems to absorb the very light around it, making it nearly invisible in the dark of night. Its eyes, instead of the typical bright and curious orbs, gleam with an eerie, malevolent red glow. Its sharp, dagger-
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✨️🌞Good Morning Team X🌞✨️
~ Hey Bonjour tout le monde passez un excellent week-end ahah profitez un MAXIMUM ‼️‼️‼️ ~
❤️ You Are The Best ❤️
#GM #NFTCommunity #Cute
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