Nico

@Reformed_Trader There’s certainly a correlation but it does matter whether you’re +47% or -17% within the pack.

Is it making sense yet?

$ASTS I keep saying it: There will be one lowband constellation at scale and there will be multiple midband D2D providers including Starlink and Amazon with their own connectivity bundles. Midband will be the commodity and agressive pricing layer. AST will largely at scale have a lowband monopoly globally and that’s unique. MNO’s will never give SpaceX and Amazon low band and anyone else cannot pull it off. If you read about the multi tenant D2D model, 6G and the future of Physical AI you conclude that lowband is the most important D2D layer, because it is a bridge between the phone and higher capacity midband. Wall Street analysis is still superficial in not recognizing this. They talk about increased competition, while in reality nobody will be competing in lowband in a multi tenant setup.

Loudest, dumbest market I’ve ever seen. Institutional capital the worst offender. Independent thinking is extinct. Alpha’s never been easier.

Just like people couldn't see how the market could bottom till the Iran war was over or the Strait opened, people can't see how $ASTS can bottom till Rakuten is done selling, batch shipment is announced, and/or successful launch happens. Price $71.20 *NFA

@Reformed_Trader If ASTS keeps dropping, I'm going to end up like @thekookreport with a single-stock portfolio. It'll force me to sell everything else just to buy more.

$ASTS On Friday I marked out mid $60s being a big point of interest. We are arriving at that important level where we want to see sellers exhaust themselves and bulls to step in. Record short interest today as well which could add support for some shorts that will use this dip to cover. *NFA

@SpacBobby @Defiantclient2 How much does Rakuten have left to sell?

$ASTS - There we go folks, we just hit the 200 day MA! Rakuten almost done selling, incoming batch launches, more DA and gov't contracts yet to be signed. "If all you ever did was buy high-quality stocks on the 200-week moving average, you would beat the S&P 500 by a large margin over time" - Charlie Munger

$ASTS Rakuten reported 5M shares sold leaving approximately 5.5M left

@CKCapitalxx We have to wait until the Rakuten selling is finished.

I can't lie, I don't know how much more dip buying I have left in me. Pump please. $ASTS

This just happened and its crazy how barely anyone is talking about it and how huge this is. The FirstNet spectrum lease status just changed from pending to granted. For those who do not know what FirstNet is. It is the 700MHz public safety broadband network built for every first responder in the United States. Police. Fire. EMS. Military. The entire national emergency communications backbone. It runs on premium Band 14 spectrum that covers virtually every inch of the country. $ASTS just got granted access to that spectrum from space. Think about what that actually means. Every first responder in the US operating in a dead zone, a rural area, a disaster site where towers are down, can now connect directly through the $ASTS constellation. No tower needed. No ground infrastructure. Direct from space to the device already in their hand. This is not a consumer play. This is a government contract. And government contracts at this scale carry a very different revenue profile. Estimated annual contract value: $500 million to $1 billion. Per year. Recurring. From a single customer that will never go away. Stack that on top of AT&T. Verizon. Vodafone. TELUS. 50 carrier partners. $1.2 billion in existing contracted commitments. $3.9 billion in cash. FCC full commercial authorization already granted this week. And now FirstNet granted too. The formal announcement has not even happened yet.

$ASTS I still don’t think people/market understand how big of a moat a lowband direct to device constellation is and the advanced level of technology and MNO coordination required to pull it off. 80% of mobile traffic is indoors, lowband allows AST to penetrate one or two walls. Competition cannot access low band, because AST has the MNO deals worldwide. FCC just confirmed the low band regulatory approval. This is the moat the market is missing. Few players can do midband, only one company does lowband and this has huge implications for the D2D race. The market just does not get it yet. That’s fine. I am patient.

$ASTS the market still doesn't understand how significant FCC SCS approval is and is trading this in line with the algo baskets. Many things are going to unlock for the company and algos don't think beyond price setting to the rest of the sector. Analysts should start to upgrade or raise their price targets as they study the implications, imo. *NFA

The FCC just dropped DA 26-391. $ASTS has been granted full commercial authorization. 248 satellites approved for non-geostationary orbit. Supplemental Coverage from Space. Mobile Satellite Service. Direct-to-cell operations. Feeder link and telemetry. All of it. Granted. This is the document the bears said would never come. The regulatory overhang that has been hanging over this company for years is gone. The FCC has signed off on the entire constellation. This is huge. AT&T spectrum approved. Verizon spectrum approved. FirstNet approved. 248 satellites authorized. Commercial direct-to-cell operations unlocked across the United States. This is not a test license. This is not experimental authorization. This is the real grant. DA 26-391. From the Federal Communications Commission. Signed and stamped. The thesis was always satellites plus spectrum plus carriers plus FCC. Three of those four have been locked in for a long time. Today the fourth one arrived. $3.9 billion in cash. Launches every one to two months. BlueBirds 8 9 and 10 shipping in 30 days. Falcon 9 batch missions coming. 3 billion subscribers waiting on partner networks. Every piece is now in place.

$ASTS: Feels like sentiment is the worst it’s been since the stock was at $2. Let’s put things into perspective. The company lost one satellite (out of an entire constellation) due to a launch provider failure that had nothing to do with them. And yes, there are production delays. That’s been the story since they went public. I mean, Blue Origin has some of the best engineers in the world and Bezos’ Amex Black card behind them, yet they’re perpetually delayed and still haven’t perfected the tech as proven today. For me, the biggest core component of my $ASTS thesis is the technology working as promised, and so far the company has delivered above and beyond on that as per 50+ MNOs (and more keep signing on) + the U.S. Government. Fundamentals are the best they’ve ever been. Balance sheet is the strongest it’s ever been. The constellation is still going up. We roll.

The first stage was nominal, and the booster came back beautifully. We separated and turned on as expected, but the launch vehicle second stage did not place BlueBird 7 on its intended orbit. We are on Satellite 32 and plan to ship BB8 to 10 in approximately 30 days and continue to target ~ 45 satellites in orbit this year.

Trump is right when he says the Iran War is pretty much over, and it's because Iran has basically lost any and all leverage over the Strait of Hormuz (as well as its serious looming economic crisis) There's a small (but bombshell) detail from the ceasefire negotiations in Islamabad that has been unreported by the MSM, but was just broken by @aimendean...and it means that the war is probably done. If you don't know who Aimen is, he's the most insightful and credible analyst of the Middle East I have found to date He reports that this emerged at the negotiations this weekend and I quote: "The Saudis stood up for the whole GCC against this (Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz). And in fact, they threatened the Iranians that doing so would mean that we (the entire GCC) are not going to export a single drop of oil or LNG, forever, as long as you are in control of this. So technically, it's the GCC telling the world and especially the European Union that we're going to impose an embargo on the rest of the world if the rest of the world is not going to enforce international law when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz" So the GCC is ready to take 22% of global oil and LNG offline...and not just what transits the Strait of Hormuz, but all energy production. This means that Iran has basically lost all the leverage it ever had with regards to the Strait of Hormuz This is why the US doesn't have to move a muscle to open the Strait and why Iran's rhetoric has become far softer in recent days. Nothing is guaranteed, but the Iranians have almost no cards at this point...which is why Trump is so confident that the Iran War is pretty much over The Europeans could learn a thing or two from the GCC podcasts.apple.com/be/podcast/ame…

The narrative that $AMZN buying $GSAT is bearish for $ASTS completely misses what is actually going on here. This comes down to basic spectrum physics. Globalstar is running mid band S band around 2.4 GHz. That is near line of sight spectrum. It struggles with buildings, trees, and anything in the way. It is not built for true everywhere coverage to your phone. AST is the only one building a low band direct to cell network. Sub 1 GHz. The same spectrum AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone already use. That is the stuff that goes through walls, through foliage, and actually works where people live their lives. On top of that, AST just locked up 45 MHz of L-band lower mid-band spectrum in the US and Canada through the Ligado deal. 80 plus years of rights. That is North America covered from multiple angles. These are not competing solutions. They are different tools solving different problems. The real competition Amazon is going after is Starlink. If anything, this Amazon Globalstar deal actually makes the bull case stronger for AST. Amazon is about to control globally licensed mid-band spectrum across 120 plus countries. AST already has low band carrier integrations locked in worldwide and now owns the best block of mid-band spectrum in North America. Low band gives you coverage everywhere. Mid band gives you capacity where conditions allow. Global mid band fills the gaps AST does not have outside North America yet. Put those together and you have a full stack direct to device network that covers the entire globe across multiple spectrum layers. A partnership here is not crazy. It would actually make perfect sense. And if it happens, it would be one of the most powerful strategic moves we have seen in this entire space. Seems like perfect timing with the SpaceX IPO about to hit the tape. KNOW WHAT YOU OWN™️

The utopia that lied. Here's the truth...

Today is the day $GOOG and $META take their research briefs to their boards. They have already been doing their DD. $ASTS Will there be a willing seller?

$ASTS: AST sold off when SpaceX acquired $SATS and then rebounded to all time highs. It's going to take the market some time to digest the strategic implications. The strategic value of AST SpaceMobile to Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, all MNOs globally, etc has gone up markedly. STAY FOCUSED™️

Lunar soil is 45% oxygen by mass. Almost half the ground astronauts walk on is breathable air, locked inside chemical bonds with iron, titanium, and aluminum. Blue Origin's Blue Alchemist reactor heats crushed Moon rock to 1,600°C, turning it into a molten conductor. Then it runs an electric current through the melt. Oxygen ions migrate to one electrode and bubble off as gas. Iron, silicon, and aluminum collect at the other. The economics are where this gets wild. Delivering one kilogram of anything to the lunar surface costs roughly $1.2 million. A single astronaut breathes about 0.84 kg of oxygen per day. That's over $300 million per year per person just to keep breathing, shipped from Earth. This reactor doesn't just solve the breathing problem. The metals that come out of the same process are construction-grade iron and aluminum. The silicon gets refined into radiation-resistant solar cells. The glass covers those solar cells to protect them for 10+ years on the surface. One machine, running on solar power, producing air, building materials, electronics, and rocket fuel from dirt. Blue Origin estimates this could cut lunar landing costs by 60% and reduce fuel cell mass by 70%. Their facility in LA already spans 60,000 square feet of lab space with 65 researchers. They're running an autonomous demo in simulated lunar conditions this year. The real constraint on a permanent Moon base was never getting there. It was staying there without a $1.2 million-per-kilogram supply chain from Earth. This reactor breaks that constraint at the molecular level.