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Do you know that Bitcoin's entire week is decided by a single price level?
This is the Monday High Rule.
I tested what happens when Bitcoin fails to break Monday's high for the rest of the week using 452 weeks of data (8.5 years).
Monday's high not broken by Tuesday - 60% Red
Monday's high not broken by Wednesday - 74% Red
Monday's high not broken by Thursday - 79% Red
Monday's high not broken by Friday - 87% Red
The probability of this being random is less than 1 in 100 billion billion.
And the pattern is not fading, it is getting stronger. In the last 12 months, the numbers jump to 70%, 82%, 90%, and 95% by Friday. In the last 6 months, if Monday's high was not broken by Friday, the week closed red 100% of the time.
The inverse works too. If Bitcoin breaks above Monday's high at any point during the week, the week closes green 72% of the time.
Here is how to use this every week. When Monday closes, mark the high. That is your reference for the rest of the week. If Tuesday cannot break it, start getting cautious. If Wednesday cannot break it, the week is 74% likely to close red. If Thursday still has not broken it, you are looking at almost 80% odds of a red week and at that point you should not be adding longs.
This week Monday's high was $76,558. Price broke above it yesterday which flipped the projection to green with 72% odds. As long as $76,558 holds as support from here, the week closes green. If we lose it back as resistance before Sunday, we fall into the 80%+ red category.
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