Nic

The private credit warning just got elevated - this time by the Fed. Governor Michael Barr flagged it as a potential trigger for broad contagion. Not because banks are directly exposed, but because of fear. Stress in private credit could spook investors into pulling back from the entire corporate credit market. His other concern is Payment in Kind loans where interest payments create new debt. With these, functional defaults are hidden inside the book where the true scale of stress is invisible.

@eyes_mcgee Oh interesting. I find ChatGPT gives the most incorrect 🤔

@nicrypto Gemini makes the most mistakes of any of the models I use at work. I agree with the previous comment, it's Google's massive reach that is helping.

ChatGPT has been losing market share consistently over the past year. The biggest recipient is Gemini.

“There are two ways to enslave a country. One is by the sword. The other is by debt.” – John Adams

@bacsacancrac That is fair - those are advanced as hell

@nicrypto If you have used a Japanese toilet you understand AI could unlock vast opportunities

How is this real?! A Japanese Toilet making company's share price surged after announcing investments into AI tech. I don't know what's crazier, the fact this happened or the fact that we will have AI powered toilets?

@degenrsc Def a simulation

@nicrypto We are living in a simulation that’s also driven by manipulation and insiders. Only explanation. That and ofc fear + greed

It's just a small religious gathering. I don't know why we're making a big thing out of it.

Buffet is putting his money where his mouth is: Cash. Berkshire's cash pile is at a record high. They have been selling stocks for the past 3 years! That's either extreme caution - or a very clear verdict on market valuations.

Spirit Airlines should announce that they are pivoting to AI.

@Jmfthree1 Seems to be the case - at least on yield.

@nicrypto Banks won and crypto lost! Sadly

The Clarity Act cleared a major hurdle: stablecoin yield. Compromise text was released overnight & while it bans passive yield, it still has room for "activity based" rewards. The Senate Banking Committee can now schedule a markup hearing for the first time. What's still unresolved: ethics provisions covering Trump family crypto holdings & DeFi oversight. Are those going to be deal-breakers for the Dems?

Bitcoin closed April up by almost 12%. This is the best monthly performance in a year. Long way to go back to ATHs but good to see some green.

It's WILD. US stocks have had their best month since 2020! The S&P500 is at all-time-highs! AI is truly saving the market. But with peak concentration, does this present bubble risk?

Over the past 2 weeks, the UK's stock market capitalisation has been overtaken by both Taiwan's & South Korea's. Not looking good bruv...

People with classified military information are using prediction markets to turn government secrets into cash. Long-shot bets on military & defence on Polymarket win 52% of the time. That's against a platform average of just 14%! This is what insider trading looks like.

As expected, the BoJ has stepped in to support the Yen. Unfortunately, the longer-term shifts are hard to fight against.

Trump thinks the blockade will force the Iranian's to come back to the table. The belief is that with no oil revenue, they will relent. But history tells a different story. After the period of "maximum pressure" sanctions in 2018, Iran's oil exports dropped over 80% and remained at those levels for over 5 YEARS. During that period, they didn't relent nor change their ways. Crucially, the reduction in their exports didn't severely damage their oil infrastructure as they were able to ramp it up again from 2023 onward. Perhaps this reality is why Trump is again considering attacks on Iran.

@nikitabier Can confirm. Started talking to someone IRL about crypto and they asked where my "snooze button was"

The most snoozed (i.e., muted) topics since launching the snooze feature: 1. Crypto 2. Politics 3. Iran Conflict 4. Sports 5. Business & Finance 6. Gaming 7. Artificial Intelligence 8. Videos 9. Science & Technology 10. Entertainment & Arts

Jerome Powell's final FOMC press conference. And it was his most hawkish in years. For the first time since 1992, 4 Federal Reserve members dissented the decision. What Powell confirmed: - Near-term inflation expectations are rising - PCE inflation hit 3.5% in March - Energy prices will "persist" as an inflation driver - "Reaching 2% could be very costly" - More officials now think hiking is as likely as cutting - The Fed's going to court to defend its independence Rates held for the third straight meeting, but the direction of travel just changed. This isn't the soft-landing Fed anymore.