Nigel Goodwin

@austinmcraig All good, I feel like my replies got all messed up so hopefully they come out in some coherent order

@niiiigel Sorry, so many typos above. I’m just hammering this out quickly.

I don’t see a scenario where this doesn’t totally disrupt Hollywood. They can hold back the tide for only so long. Eventually (soon) solo filmmakers will create cinematic masterpieces. Honestly surprised it hasn’t happened yet. Am I missing something?

@austinmcraig 5/4 forward for this type of thing in the next 5 years, I just don’t know that I see it.

Thai isn’t a rebuttal to what you’re saying, just riffing. I just got done reading to my kids. We’re reading “Charlie and the Great Glass Elevator” by Roald Dahl. It’s the sequel to “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.” My son asked if we could watch the movie. “There isn’t a move of this,” I told him. But there could be. Pretty easily. Find the text of the book. Give it to an AI w/ a sufficiently large context window. Ask the AI to break it down into the beats of a movie. Cut anything that just seems tangential or wouldn’t work for a visual narrative. Whatever instructions you like. Ask it to describe the sequence of shots for each scene. Ask it to list assets. Generate assets. Combine them, a la @pika_labs’ new tools for composing. Edit together. Like… I’m sure I’m making this sound easier than it really is. But it’s perfectly doable. If I had free time, I’d try it myself [I do not have free time currently]. Just feels creatively inevitable. And if the end product is good, then people will eventually coordinate their incentives to follow that fact.

@austinmcraig 4/4 Wild West legally speaking) but I don’t need to tell you about how well our legislature understands these issues and their ability to write coherent laws around them. And who knows, maybe somehow these types of policy decisions get fast tracked to where there is a path

@austinmcraig 3/4 immediately. You would almost need to sell this with a wink towards this type of application, which to me sort of defeats the purpose. There are plenty of policy questions to be had around this and areas where the law is not clear (or doesn’t exist - AI is still very much the

@austinmcraig 2/4 you are a marketing guy, but as soon as a company markets something in this way, using a clearly compelling use case but simultaneously an implicit means to skirting licensing deals and rights holders, they are going to get hit with litigation from all sides almost

@austinmcraig 1/4 And yeah, totally understand this and have read a lot on potential applications (admittedly nowhere near as much as I’m sure you have) - sounds very cool and I’m sure plenty of people would love this. The problem is the current legal framework will not allow it. I recognize

@austinmcraig 3/3 point to bring in consumers, but I just think established/trusted IP is going to win the bulk of consumers over new/unfamiliar content/yet *another* subscription.

@niiiigel I just think… It ultimately won’t matter. If it’s technologically not only possible to make amazing media with AI, but EASY to make it… Then creative people will make it. And if it’s good, people will watch. The business elements will have to eventually follow that reality.

@austinmcraig 2/3 streaming options, especially when the content is not going to be anything they’ve seen before/based on IP they’re familiar with/etc. I know you think the AI aspect, with its admitted ease and low barrier to entry (at least eventually) for creators, is enough of a selling

@austinmcraig 1/3 Yeah I think I just disagree, which is fine of course - I work in this space so spend a lot of my time thinking about these things and like fleshing things out. I don’t think the promise of good content is enough of a value proposition for people to spend money on alternative

@austinmcraig Like the Amazon spending a billion dollars example, that includes the rights to actually make a Lord of the Rings series. I don’t see any meaningful rights holder licensing anything to anyone for the purposes of creating AI generated content

@niiiigel Sure. But in a truly open marketplace, where the Internet exists, won’t people just operate outside those silos? This is (or will be) an example of “so good they can’t ignore it.”

@austinmcraig There’s also been plenty of backlash to somewhat innocuous (at least compared to this video) uses of AI as it is (see The Brutalist and others). Again, don’t doubt that this stuff will find an audience (it won’t be me) but the degree to which it actually disrupts isn’t as clear.

@austinmcraig I don’t doubt that new platforms will emerge to support this stuff and it will surely take some part of the marketshare but I’m not convinced it’s as sure of a bet to dismantle the industry.

@austinmcraig And who have no vested interest in literally anything to do with the Hollywood machine or its offshoots

@austinmcraig Yeah, I think what may be the most interesting aspect of the whole thing (aside from the thing itself) is the fact that these types of AI generated productions are essentially inevitable but also will be created exclusively by new players in the space

How long till Netflix+Hollywood start personalized AI streaming video? 2025? AI can already: -Write scripts based on viewer(s) preference -Create consistent characters -Separate scenes in script -Produce scenes -Score film These already exist. Just string them together.

@austinmcraig @t2remake Yeah I’m not so sure - with AI being a main driver of the recent industry strikes, I don’t know if that’s the type of press/buzz that a legacy festival will be looking for

There are already small AI film fests, which are great. But bigger fests are fighting the tide if they think they can hold this back. Maybe it’d be a bold move to accept and award an all-AI film right now. It would also get huge press and buzz, which festivals want/need. It’ll happen.

These look like scenes from Avatar. A good exercise for AI filmmakers would be to simply recreate sequences from great films. Of course there’s the @t2remake, but I imagine that’ll take great creative liberties. First, copy. Then transform. Somebody will make an award winning AI film for a major film fest in 2024.

@therealchriswei just watch severance in the mean time and u will b happy

i miss succession