Sabitlenmiş Tweet
I also finally decided to use my data for LOESS regressions, I think I'm pretty happy with the result
Nikolay@nikolay4101
The election is tomorrow, here is the final polling average graph for this election cycle
English
Nikolay
933 posts
Nikolay
@nikolay4101
25 he/him | stuck in the qokeedy loop | priv - @LostAntipatrid
Bulgaria Katılım Eylül 2018
1.9K Takip Edilen468 Takipçiler
They're dropping spoilers for the original asoiaf outline on twitter like it's nobody's business
asoiaf out of context@asoiafooc
— jon i, a game of thrones.
English
We also lost our two longest serving MPs, Atalay from APS and Tsonev from DPS
Nikolay@nikolay4101
For the first time since 1894 there won't be any members of the BSP (or its predecessors) elected to this Parliament
English
@EEPolls_123 DB is not a party and hasn't de jure existed outside of people's minds and electoral branding for 3 years now.
English
DB will be the larger party over PP in this election, after the preference votes have been counted.
This means most of the PPDB voters who went to PB were from PP, while DB voters largely stayed loyal to PPDB.
dnevnik.bg/politika/2026/…
English
Europe Elects@EuropeElects
Bulgaria, Preliminary final election result: National parliament election PB-*: 44.6% (+44.6) GERB–SDS-EPP: 13.3% (-13.1) PP–DB-RE|EPP: 12.6% (-1.1) DPS-NN-NI: 7.0% (-4.5) V-ESN: 4.3% (-9.1) MECh-*: 3.2% (-1.4) Velichie-*: 3.1% (-0.9) BSP–OL-S&D: 3.0% (-4.6) Siyanie-G/EFA: 2.9% (+2.9) APS-RE: 1.6% (-5.9) ITN-ECR: 0.7% (-6.1) SB→ECR: 0.6% (-0.5) +/- vs. Last election result ➤ europeelects.eu/bulgaria
ZXX
Final update, um... Yeah I don't know how that happened either...
Nikolay@nikolay4101
With the election tomorrow the last few polls showed a clear uptick for PB & Siyanie. Reminder that it is possible sometimes for **all polls** to get sth wrong, as though they're in an echo chamber (DPS-NN, SBg, BBg, Mech & Velichie in 2024, BSP in 21-22, PP in 21, DB in 21 etc)
English
Was chilling on a break and a Bulgarian dude next to me was proudly telling his friend how he voted PB and how it's good that they got a single-party majority because "coalitions are annoying and bad"
Leonid🇪🇺🇺🇦@ShtLnd_
When classmates start expressing their political views
English
As always, here are the 2026 election results in my polling station:
🟢 PB: 50.4%
🔵 GERB-SDS: 16.8%
🐦 Velichie: 6.9%
🔴 BSP-OL: 6.1%
🗡️ MECh: 5.3%
🟡 PP-DB: 4.6%
⚫ Vazr: 3.8%
⚪ ITN: 1.5%
🧿 NOTA: 1.5%
🔘Others: 2.8%
Nikolay@nikolay4101
Same polling station 5 months later, here are the results: 🔵 GERB-SDS: 21.6% 🟡 PP-DB: 19.6% ⚫ Vazr: 16.8% ⚪ ITN: 8.9% 🔴 BSP-OL: 7.9% 🐦 Velichie: 7.2% 🧿 NOTA: 4.1% 🗡️ MECh: 3.8% 🟣 DPS-NN: 2.3% 🦅 APS: 2.1% 🔘Others: 5.2%
English
@EEPolls_123 Yeah so GERB is leading PP-DB in all the underreporting oblasts so they can't possibly fall to third
English
CIK 96% counted
🟢PB: 44.7%
🔵GERB: 13.4%
🟡PPDB: 12.9%
🟣DPS: 6.7%
⚫️VAZR: 4.3%
—————
MECh: 3.2%
Velichie: 3.1%
BSP: 3.0%
SIYANIE: 2.9%
APS: 1.5%
ITN: 0.7%
Indonesia
So um you could say the polls were a little bit wrong, just a wee tiny bit
Nikolay@nikolay4101
With the election tomorrow the last few polls showed a clear uptick for PB & Siyanie. Reminder that it is possible sometimes for **all polls** to get sth wrong, as though they're in an echo chamber (DPS-NN, SBg, BBg, Mech & Velichie in 2024, BSP in 21-22, PP in 21, DB in 21 etc)
English
...or it isnt lmao
x.com/EuropeElects/s…
Europe Elects@EuropeElects
Bulgaria, 100% of Market Links parallel count: National parliament election PB-*: 44.4% (+44.4) PP-DB-RE|EPP: 12.8% (-0.9) GERB-SDS-EPP: 12.4% (-14.0) DPS-NN-NI: 6.3% (-5.2) V-ESN: 3.8% (-9.6) MECh-*: 3.3% (-1.3) Siyanie-G/EFA: 3.2% (+3.2) BSPOL-S&D: 3.0% (-4.6) Velichie-*: 2.6% (-1.4) APS-RE: 2.1% (-5.4) ITN-ECR: 2.1% (-4.7) SB→ECR: 0.7% (-0.4) +/- vs. Last election result ➤ europeelects.eu/bulgaria
English
And with that, the great culling is finally complete
Europe Elects@EuropeElects
Bulgaria, 8:45 PM EEST Market Links updated exit poll: Seat projection national parliament PB-*: 116 (+116) GERB-SDS-EPP: 47 (-19) PP-DB-RE|EPP: 40 (+4) DPS-NN-NI: 22 (-7) V-ESN: 15 (-18) BSPOL-S&D: 0 (-19) APS-RE: 0 (-19) ITN-ECR: 0 (-17) MECh-*: 0 (-11) Velichie-*: 0 (-10) +/- vs. Last election result ➤ europeelects.eu/bulgaria
English
@maika_anarchiya Винаги са така, до утре сутринта ще са 75% до утре следобед ще са 100%
Русский
толкова бавно ли са излизали резултатите от ЦИК преди, или това е някаква аномалия?
Български
Holy fucking shit???
Europe Elects@EuropeElects
Bulgaria, 80% of Trend parallel count: National parliament election PB-*: 45.9% (+45.9) GERB-SDS-EPP: 13.2% (-13.2) PP-DB-RE|EPP: 11.8% (-1.9) DPS-NN-NI: 5.5% (-6.0) V-ESN: 4.3% (-9.1) Siyanie-G/EFA: 3.0% (+3.0) APS-RE: 2.9% (-4.6) MECh-*: 2.9% (-1.7) BSPOL-S&D: 2.8% (-4.8) Velichie-*: 2.7% (-1.3) ITN-ECR: 0.7% (-6.1) SB→ECR: 0.6% (-0.5) +/- vs. Last election result ➤ europeelects.eu/bulgaria
English
Well, if nothing else we get to not do this damn can of worms discourse...
Nikolay@nikolay4101
Just curious to see what any of you that have been following Bulgarian politics think, do you agree with the following statement: A PP-DB + PB (Radev) government is the best option after the election
English
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
EE Polls 🇪🇺🇧🇬🇬🇧@EEPolls_123
Myara 83% parallel count - PPDB OVERTAKE GERB!!! - PB outright majority here again - VAZR might just about make it
@baseddss @Alejandro_SocEU @EuropeElects Not impossible and apparently the parallel counts point to that.
English
English
Bulgaria, 8:45 PM EEST Market Links updated exit poll:
Seat projection national parliament
PB-*: 116 (+116)
GERB-SDS-EPP: 47 (-19)
PP-DB-RE|EPP: 40 (+4)
DPS-NN-NI: 22 (-7)
V-ESN: 15 (-18)
BSPOL-S&D: 0 (-19)
APS-RE: 0 (-19)
ITN-ECR: 0 (-17)
MECh-*: 0 (-11)
Velichie-*: 0 (-10)
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/bulgaria
English
@Alejandro_SocEU @EuropeElects The other exit polls have BSP above 4%, if its possible a PB + BSP govt is obv the most likely of them all
English
@nikolay4101 @EuropeElects Thanks. I hope one of the first two options comes through.
English
@Alejandro_SocEU @EuropeElects Probably either snap or PB + PP-DB; PB + Vaz won't happen; PB + GERB not exactly possible
English
@EuropeElects @nikolay4101 What government do you see with these numbers?
English