nitin gheedia

Why Reliance Cancelled Plans to Produce Lithium-Ion Battery in India 1. Hithium is a tiny Chinese battery maker (1/200th in size of RIL) 2. This tiny firm refused to license its tech to India's most powerful group. India’s Critical Import Dependence for Strategic Technologies: Reliance Wants to Move from Fossil Fuels to Clean Tech, But Without Risk or Effort a. Reliance (RIL) earns nearly $10 billion in annual net profits as a group. But due to a protectionist domestic market, it has no culture of investing in innovation and no motivation to compete globally. b. RIL has not invested in R&D capabilities for cutting-edge lithium battery production or other clean technologies that are the future of the world. c. It has no patents, design knowledge, product formulations, or manufacturing process knowhow to create next-generation competitive cell technology in-house. d. A small, private company like Hithium (established in 2019) has been spending hundreds of millions of dollars every year in R&D to develop repeatable, high-yield processes that cannot be easily copied by others without deep expertise or investment. e. It takes years of experimentation, trial production, pilot plants, safety labs, specialized R&D teams, advanced equipment, iterative optimization, and high failure rates to develop such technologies at scale. f. RIL and other Indian companies are not interested as they have easier ways to dominate a protected domestic market. So, India remains heavily technology-dependent on the rest of the world. g. Due to decades of R&D neglect by the Indian industry and faulty policies of successive administrations, India does not have the ecosystem required to innovate, build, scale production, and compete globally in even the most basic technologies. h. In absence of a tech industry or ecosystem, India does not have the required elite pool of talent – research teams, battery scientists, process engineers, quality & reliability engineers, and equipment and automation specialists. i. India does not have massively integrated supply chains like China, starting with advanced mining and refining capabilities (for critical battery raw materials), production of chemical precursors (cathode/anode), specialized manufacturing equipment, and R&D and testing infrastructure. What is Required to Build a Vertically Integrated Materials-to-Cell Supply Chain for Lithium Battery and Other Cutting-edge Technologies in India 1. Long-horizon, patient capital in R&D. 2. Culture of innovation & failure-tolerance. 3. Celebrating technological wins instead of financial market wins (with globally incompetent promoters who are on the Forbes rich list due to a protectionist economy and an overvalued stock market.) @arabicatrader

Reliance Industries Ltd. paused its plan to make lithium-ion battery cells in India. Why? - Because a Small Chinese firm called Xiamen Hithium Energy Storage Technology Co. refused to license its technology to Reliance. - Technology licensing means: giving another party permission to use a technology or related intellectual property under a legal contract, in return for agreed compensation such as royalties or fees. - The Chinese firm is 1/100th the size of Reliance. And, was started in 2019. It was able to build a piece of technology that one of India's biggest company desperately needs. - Post the breakdown of these talks: Reliance would go back to "assembling" (not making) Lithium-ion batteries. - The partnership (allegedly) fell because China wants to preserve its competitive advantage in EV and energy‑storage technologies. - Role of lithium-ion in AI revolution is critical. Many data centers would operate in off-grid location. And, efficient batteries are a key to solving it. - Even in location where data centers are built. And, operational:the High‑density AI clusters (e.g., racks full of H100‑class GPUs drawing hundreds of watts per GPU) create large, spiky power demand that stresses grids and legacy UPS systems.​ - Lithium‑ion UPS and battery‑energy‑storage systems (BESS) provide fast‑response backup. And, ride‑through during grid disturbances so that AI training workloads are not corrupted by even millisecond‑scale outages. - Energy is a major bottleneck. And, BESS and Lithium-ion are a critical piece of this ecosystem. ***** We spent the last 10 years building statues. With all the revenue collections. And, the massive GDP increase, maybe some money should have gone to BESS and Lithium-ion R&D spent.

@RihardJarc What’s the basis/ source behind 15 P/S? Did the growth rate then mirror what’s projected in coming years?

$AMZN is one of the most attractive Big Tech players right now if the AI cycle doesn't slow down. AWS will hit $170B ARR this year, and the whole company trades at $2.5T market cap. At 15x P/S, where the hyperscalers often traded, you are essentially getting the rest of $AMZN for free. While I do believe there is some risk in e-commerce (although their logistics is a physical moat) and its ad business, if the discovery surface shifts from Amazon to LLM agents, the discount here seems extreme. Their Tranium chip unit is also a significant asset that will help AWS continue to have a healthy margin in the long term. Many investors are "fatigued" by $AMZN's underperformance relative to its big tech peers over the last 5 years, but that fact might change quickly. $AMZN is my 2nd largest position.

@oguzerkan Fully automate last mile delivery? What’s the source and more importantly the time horizon they plan to reach there.

Robotics is becoming mainstream, and $AMZN is leading in deployment. They have +1 million robots working in warehouses, they are delivering packages with drones, and planning to fully automate the last-mile delivery in the next 10 years. Long $AMZN.

I still am unable to buy Amazon even though it surely will be a double digit grower. SOTP = $2.7T (8% upside to current market cap/ share price). Advertising at 33x EBIT of $35B = $1.1T AWS at 9x revenue of $132B = $1.1T Retail (ex advertising) at 1x revenue (aggressive IMO) of $0.5T = $0.5T Assumed cost of capital at ~10% What am I missing? Trainium chips and robotics leading to acceleration of AWS and Retail operating margin?

2026 has begun. The goal is the same as every year: beat the market. Here are 6 large cap businesses I believe have the best chance of doing just that: 1. Amazon / $AMZN 2025 was the year of spending on AI infrastructure. 2026 is the year we begin to see that spending pay off. Amazon is entering a major cash flow inflection point. AWS is reaccelerating, and advertising is now running at an $85B annual pace with margins exceeding 50%. The market continues to price Amazon as a low margin retailer, even though its highest margin businesses are growing the fastest. At the same time, the retail segment itself should see meaningful profitability improvements as robotics are more aggressively deployed across fulfillment and logistics. For a company facing more tailwinds than constraints, a forward operating cash flow multiple of 14x, or roughly 31x forward earnings, Amazon looks attractive for what I expect to be a double digit grower in 2026.

@Mindset4Money_X It’s capex investments as a % of EBITDA is very high and market is likely underpricing the risk that those investments don’t meet Meta’s usual ROIC. That said, this should be seen as a short term issue.

If $META meets analyst expectations, I don’t see how it’s not the best performing MAG 7 of 2026. It is the only name growing revenues ~20% while trading under 25x earnings. Love the risk/reward here.

@DimitryNakhla Can you please share the source/ math for the 70% FCF increase expected for Amazon? TIA!

15 Quality Stocks With Estimated FCF CAGR >15% Over Next 3 Years 💸 1. $UBER +15% 2. $MA +16% 3. $META +17% 4. $MSFT +17% 5. $HWM +19% 6. $TDG +20% 7. $NFLX +24% 8. $GOOG +26% 9. $FICO +27% 10. $SNPS +32% 11. $NVDA +33% 12. $TSM +33% 13. $ASML +44% 14. $AMD +52% 15. $AMZN +71%

@riteshmjn Thanks. What’s your view on impact on Gold prices, if any due to this?

1/ Venezuela might hold the wild card in the U.S. debt story. 🇻🇪💰 Behind the headlines, its vast oil reserves could influence inflation, interest rates, and even the Fed’s next moves. Let’s unpack this geopolitical gamble. 🧵 2/ The U.S. debt burden has topped $38 trillion, with interest payments now more than defense spending. High rates make it worse — every 1% increase adds hundreds of billions to annual interest costs. 3/ Now imagine oil prices falling back to $30–40 a barrel. It’s not impossible. That could happen if Venezuela ramps up production under new deals or U.S. backing. 4/ A flood of new supply could crush inflationary pressure. Cheaper energy filters through everything — logistics, manufacturing, transport, and consumer prices — bringing inflation down rapidly. 5/ That collapse in inflation would give the Fed room to cut rates. A 100 basis point cut could slash mortgage rates, revive housing, and reduce U.S. interest expenses by $300–400 billion per year. 6/ For Washington, that’s a powerful incentive. Control or influence the flow of cheap oil → control inflation → slow the debt spiral. Monetary and energy policy become two sides of the same coin. 7/ But it’s not without cost. Oil at $30–40 would wreck margins for U.S. shale producers and ripple trouble through OPEC budgets and global alliances. 8/ For Trump, this is the ultimate double-edged sword. Push on Venezuela and engineer short-term prosperity, but risk destabilizing the world’s energy architecture. 9/ History shows the pattern. Empires under financial strain often turn to resources for relief — Rome with grain, Britain with oil. It buys time, but never indefinitely. 10/ If Venezuela becomes a pawn in this new debt chessboard, the stakes go far beyond oil. It’s about how long the U.S. can finance its dominance before interest costs consume the system. 11/ This isn’t about ideology or democracy. It’s about survival — of a financial empire built on low rates, cheap energy, and global dollar liquidity. 12/ Trump knows it’s a gamble. Move on Venezuela, and maybe buy a few more years of breathing room. But history warns — debt bought with conquest always comes due later. ⏳

I urge all popular Indian podcasters in all languages to teach the merits/demerits of capitalism (and socialism) to our country. Capitalism has its flaws, but it’s the only proven system which can lift us out of poverty and make a nation worth reckoning.

Reposting this today as a refresher for no particular reason.

@qualityequities What return% are you targetting through this portfolio?

2025 year-end portfolio update: As I wrote earlier in December, I recently decided to sell my position in $NOW ServiceNow. ServiceNow remains a great company. But today, I believe this capital works harder in businesses with greater long-term compounding potential and more favorable valuation-to-growth dynamics. I used the proceeds to boost my positions in $MA Mastercard, $V Visa, $META Meta, and $UBER Uber. New buy: Very recently, I’ve started to build a position in $BN Brookfield. Anyone who’s followed me could likely see this coming. My investment thesis for this company is simple as I outlined in my most recent Substack post. Looking forward: As I look toward 2026, my focus isn’t on predicting markets or timing cycles. It’s on owning businesses with the balance sheets, competitive advantages, and reinvestment opportunities to emerge stronger on the other side of whatever volatility lies ahead. Periods of uncertainty tend to reward patience, not activity. The companies in this portfolio are built to self-fund growth, defend margins, and compound value even as sentiment swings and narratives shift. I don’t need everything to go right for these businesses to succeed. I just need time. That’s the edge I’m leaning into as we move through 2026…and it’s exactly what this portfolio was built for.

What’s your rationale? India inflation >> US inflation. Market forces dictate Long term — INR should depreciate (and it has). It’s essential for retaining India’s export competitiveness. I believe RBI objective function here is to limit Fx volatility while letting market decide the rate.

My position on RBI intervention is: if you don't allow the rupee to appreciate (which is evident by massive additions to forex reserves when dollars came in) then you should sell dollars to not allow the rupee to depreciate too. Otherwise be free both ways, use rupee for payments

RBI sold a whole bunch of dollars in Oct- about 12bn - to stabilize the rupee somewhat.

@BrianFeroldi I used Gemini a few days back about this point and it said exactly the same thing. It made things clear. A picture makes it even more clear!

@tanayj It’s not an apple to apple comparison. Zuck’s appetite for investment that shows in D&A is insane.

Wow Bytedance is expected to do >$50B in net income in 2025. For comparison, Meta will likely do ~$65B in net income during the year

@F_Compounders @Sanjay__Bakshi Quite old school

A Primer on PE ratios By @Sanjay__Bakshi

@demishassabis What an elegant way to explain this concept!

Yann is just plain incorrect here, he’s confusing general intelligence with universal intelligence. Brains are the most exquis​ite and complex phenomena we know of in the universe (so far), and they are in fact extremely general. Obviously one can’t circumvent the no free lunch theorem so in a practical and finite system there always has to be some degree of specialisation around the ​target distribution that is being learnt. But the point about generality is that in theory, in the Turing Machine sense​, the architecture of ​s​uch a general system is capable of learning anything computable given enough time and memory​ (and data), and the human brain (and AI foundation models) are approximate Turing Machines. Finally, with ​regards to ​Yann's comments about chess players, it’s amazing that humans could have invented chess ​in the first place (and all the other ​a​spects ​o​f modern civilization ​from science to 747s!) let alone get as brilliant at it as someone like Magnus. He may not be ​strictly optimal (after all he has finite memory and limited time to make a decision) but it’s incredible what he and we can do with our brains given they were evolved for hunter gathering.

Exciting news for the UK: we're teaming up with @Baidu_Inc's Apollo Go to pilot autonomous vehicles in London! Testing is expected to start in the first half of 2026, under the UK’s frontier plan to begin trials for self-driving vehicles. We’re excited to accelerate Britain's leadership in the future of mobility, bringing another safe and reliable travel option to Londoners next year.

@fiscal_ai What’s stock price LTM?

MercadoLibre over the last 5 years: Revenue +559% Stock Price +16% $MELI

@signulll What will be the implication on road infrastructure, if any?

the self driving car is simply a couch that moves. cars won’t compete with other cars. they’ll compete with living rooms, offices, & beds.