原発ゼロ！自維国参政党には投票しません！消費税減税！

「ホルムズ・インフレ」価格転嫁のスピードは通常の3倍 nikkei.com/article/DGXZQO… 原油由来のナフサを使った化学品はメーカーが相次ぎ値上げ。取引価格の上昇率は1973年のオイルショック時を超え過去最高に。 市場に広がる焦燥感が、これまでにない勢いでインフレを促しています。

【スクープ第3弾！】衆院選での違法な「有料広告動画」疑惑 宮城自民5陣営“総汚染”で組織ぐるみが浮き彫り nikkan-gendai.com/articles/view/… #日刊ゲンダイDIGITAL

What's going on? Are neocons having a come-to-Jesus moment? After Bob Kagan writing an article on how the U.S. is facing "total defeat" in Iran (see x.com/RnaudBertrand/…), you now have Max Boot - the very author of “The Case for American Empire” and one of the most vocal advocates for the Iraq war - publishing a Washington Post interview explaining that China has surpassed the U.S. in most military domains. If anything, Boot’s interview is even more devastating than Kagan's piece, because it's not editorial opinion - he’s interviewing John Culver, a former top CIA analyst (he was national intelligence officer for East Asia) and one of the world’s foremost authorities on the Chinese military which he’s been studying since 1985. This isn't a pundit opining - this is someone who spent decades inside the intelligence community staring at the actual data. So what is Culver saying? 1) In case of war with Taiwan, the U.S. will flee the theater This is undoubtedly the single most stunning revelation in the entire piece. Culver says that - as far as he is aware - the Pentagon’s plan in case of war with Taiwan is… flee! This is the exact quote: "I think some of the thinking in the Pentagon, and it may have evolved since I retired, is that when we think there’s going to be a war, we need to get our high-value naval assets out of the theater, and then we would have to fight our way back in. From where, it’s not clear. Guam is no bastion either." Why? Because, as he explains, any high-value U.S. assets would be sitting ducks in the entire area. China can strike U.S. forces deployed to Japan, Australia, or South Korea “in a way that Iran really can't” and, given that Iran has hit at least 228 targets across U.S. bases in the Middle East - forcing the U.S. to evacuate most of them - that's saying something. Also, U.S. aircraft carriers would need to operate within 1,000 miles of the fight to matter, which - given it’s well within range of Chinese missiles - they won’t. As Culver bluntly puts it: “There's really no safe spaces.” 2) China leads in most military domains - and it's not even close Culver says that “it’s hard to not be hyperbolic” about China’s military capabilities and that, at this stage, “it’s hard to point to an area other than submarines and undersea warfare and say the United States still has an advantage.” In some critical areas, such as advanced munitions - which, when it comes to war, is pretty damn relevant - his assessment is that China leads by “magnitudes.” As a reminder, an order of magnitude means 10x so, by assuming he knows that and meant what he said, “magnitudes” means at least a hundred times more, meaning U.S. capabilities would be less than 1% those of China. At the same time, Culver also says that “whichever side runs out of bullets first is going to lose.” So if China produces “magnitudes greater than our industrial base could produce” - as he puts it - then you don't need a PhD in military strategy to put two and two together… The picture, if anything, is even more damning in shipbuilding capabilities. He reminds that a single shipyard in China - Jiangnan Shipyard, on Changxing Island near Shanghai - “has more capacity than all U.S. shipyards combined.” Put all Chinese shipyards together and China’s broader naval shipbuilding capacity is 232 times larger than that of the United States (and this is from a leaked U.S. Navy briefing slide). Culver helpfully adds that China “deploys enough ships every year to replicate the entire French navy” - which, as a Frenchman, hurts a little, but at least we'll always have the cheese (I hope). 3) Despite this, a war in Taiwan is highly unlikely If your only window into China is Western media coverage, you'd naturally assume all of the above means war over Taiwan is about to break out. After all, if China is so powerful and the U.S. so outmatched, why wouldn't it just take Taiwan and be done with it? Culver’s assessment - and mine, incidentally - is the exact opposite: China’s increasing relative strength vis-a-vis the U.S. makes war less likely, not more. How so? As Culver explains Taiwan is “a crisis Xi Jinping wants to avoid, not an opportunity he wants to seize.” The stronger China gets, the less it needs to fight: why launch a war when you can simply wait for the military balance to become so lopsided that the U.S. quietly drops its security guarantee on its own? Culver himself foresees a future “when Americans might start to say, maybe Taiwan is a war we don’t want to get involved in.” That would almost automatically mean peaceful reunification, which has always been China’s primary objective. This doesn't mean China views the U.S. as harmless. Quite the contrary - Culver says Beijing sees America “as a very militarily aggressive country” that is “declining in power and becoming more violent” as a result. Which he says is one further reason why “war over Taiwan is not something that Xi Jinping is looking for.” China doesn't want to hand a pretext to a dangerously trigger-happy power - all the more when patience alone delivers what it wants. 4) The game is up Last but not least, perhaps the most revealing aspect of the interview is that Culver doesn’t seem to see a way out: this is structural and irreversible. Asked by Boot whether “the Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion defense budget, assuming it’s approved, [would] change the trend lines” (which, as a reminder, would constitute a 50% increase in defense spending), his reply is that “it would probably help to some extent, but I worry that we could be throwing good money after bad.” Not exactly brimming with optimism… Similarly, when asked why the U.S. keeps investing billions in aircraft carriers and even “Trump-class battleships,” his answer is that it's because “the military services have a nostalgia for the things that meet their expectations for how you get promoted.” In other words, wasted money. Same thing for the Pentagon's much-hyped “Hellscape” drone strategy to defend Taiwan. Culver asks the obvious question: “What drones are you talking about launching from where?” He points out that they’d “have to pre-deploy them if not on Taiwan itself then on Luzon or the Japanese southwest islands, all of which can be struck by the Chinese.” He adds that this is “the tyranny of time and distance when you look at war in the Pacific.” The picture that emerges, both from Boot’s Culver interview and Kagan’s article, is remarkably consistent: the U.S. is “checkmate” in the Middle East, would need to entirely flee the Pacific theater before a war even starts, cannot produce enough weapons, cannot keep its supposed “allies” safe, and has no strategy to reverse any of it - nor can one even be produced given the structural nature of the gap. Even a 50% increase in defense spending, Culver says, would be “throwing good money after bad.” That's not my assessment - that's theirs. Two of America's most prominent hawks, in two of its most establishment outlets, in the space of 48 hours, have essentially published the obituary of American military primacy. Yesterday I concluded my post by saying that even the arsonists now smell the smoke. Today I'll say: the arsonists are now writing the fire report.

@hirox246 IWJさんの調査資料の中に見つけました。 選挙ビラの方に記載があります。 ご確認の上、ご査収下さいませ。 iwj.co.jp/wj/open/archiv…

「リーマン・ショック」超え、塗装工事業の倒産が急増、「ナフサショック」も影響か？ 【サマリー】 ・1-4月の倒産件数48件は過去4番目の高水準 ・コロナ支援があった2021年同期の約3倍 ・2025年は売上高、利益が直近5年で最高 業績自体は好調だが職人不足や資材高騰により内情は深刻で、倒産は増えていた シンナーなど資材価格の高騰や在庫不足が長びくと、工事受注にも支障をきたし、年間最多に迫る可能性も ●記事の詳細はこちら tsr-net.co.jp/data/detail/12… #塗装工事業 #TSRデータインサイト #東京商工リサーチ

エンジンオイル入荷なし　異例の事態に自動車整備工場「修理ができない」 news.tv-asahi.co.jp/news_economy/a… @tv_asahi_news

メガネレンズ材料など生産停止の恐れ　堺化学工業、原料調達難で nikkei.com/article/DGXZQO…

パスタを束ねるテープ、無地に変更　インクの調達不安定で　日清製粉 asahi.com/articles/ASV5D… パスタや冷凍食品を扱う日清製粉ウェルナは、主力製品の「マ・マー　スパゲティ」を1食分ずつ束ねる紙テープを、無地のものに切り替える。