Not Another Quant
15.7K posts

Not Another Quant
@notanotherquant
Paul | Bitcoin & Macro | Charts, Data & Insights | NFA
Canada Katılım Kasım 2025
555 Takip Edilen1.2K Takipçiler

@LivXfun GM Liv! Still 🔥🔥🔥 you haven’t cooled down lol.
English

@Stealthct_Storm Let’s see what they said for last years price 🤣
English

@MatthewSpositi Seems like many share your view! And it makes sense.
English

@notanotherquant I don’t like their cash burn, but I am bullish on $MSFT long term.
English

Azure +40% and Intelligent Cloud both beat expectations. $MSFT is holding up despite FCF dropping $4.5B and capex hitting $31B.
People are ignoring the cash burn for now.
The depreciation wave from this capex cycle is just starting to land in earnings.
Microsoft depreciates GPU clusters on a 6-year schedule. In practice these chips are often obsoleted faster by the next generation.
Cost of revenue in Intelligent Cloud rose 47% on 30% revenue growth. Cloud margin was 66% in Q3, with guidance at 64% for Q4.
That drop is the depreciation from the capex cycle showing up in the margin.
Azure demand isn't the question.
The question is whether revenue growth stays ahead of the depreciation as more capex comes online.
Most assume a normal cycle. Capex intensity is still rising, so the depreciation load builds further than the Street is positioned for.
If the margin low is in FY27, the setup people are trading is early.
Are you long $MSFT here or waiting for the earnings pressure to ease?

English

@notanotherquant 100%% i wonder if other content will work once i go there and start posting a bit more like atv video and hunting lol
English

@Brownmoose Still grinding on X just with a nicer view lol
English

@notanotherquant im wondering if i should order it its 75$per month , at the same time when i go to my lake i want peace and quiet but now that X pay me i see money opportunity lol
English

$ARBB Give daddy a halt up come on 😤
Hunter Allen@HunterAllen4
If $ARBB GETS 6.26 she goes crazy
English

@LivXfun Your DMs must be brutal. This app has no shortage of morons.
English

@wallstnomads Yeah see we think the same. But it feels like shouting into the void 🤣
I’m just staying cautious but riding it out.
English

That's how we know we're in a bubble. Sure we have huge earnings growth but Capex of the size that is going on into a rising rates environment is bad news. Coupled with the 10 year paying 3x the S&P yield, everything we're watching is a play purely on EPS growth and a little multiple expansion down the road. Which can last a while yet and can go 50-100% higher believe it or not like we did in the final stages of 99 but it can snap at any point that this priced to perfection scenario gets disrupted. Which may just be with a 10year at 5.
English

First highlighted in July of 2025 and refined in December, we said that the #US10Y was coiling into a triangle with 4.50 as the ceiling before it breaks.
No we're a little further along the road, the levels for a confirmed breakout are:
4.63 for initial move
4.80 for confirmed break of triangle where a pullback is most likely
5.03 for the 3 year high where again yield may pullback as long term assets rotate into fixed income
Over the next six months, the risk to equities is no longer war, but inflation and Fed watching, even moreso with a new Fed chair and JP hanging around to stir the pot.
Popcorn at the ready.
$SPY $QQQ #rates #inflation #fomc

Wall Street Nomads@wallstnomads
US 10-year Yield: +13 bps from Friday's bounce off the triangle Downtrend and resistance at 4.18. Upper side of triangle at 4.50. Would not be surprised to see this triangle break in Q1. Strap in. #US10Y #inflation #rates
English

To be fair, you need all of it. Top down approach is what I always teach people. Others like to do it in reverse, which I did too in the early days then I realized I can have the best company in the world, if the market environment isnt right it doesn't matter. First and foremost is are we risk on or risk off environment. Everything else to me is downstream from that. Fall in love with a company when we are near a risk off and you hold the baby for a while. Drove me mad so I joined the top down brigade after a couple of years.
English

@thewhitesnake Certainly some good action! Have to buckle up.
English

bitcoin:native continues pushing toward ~$80K with tactical momentum rebuilding, but structural weakness and overhead resistance are still capping it.
Tactical side improving:
- OI recovering on 4h/24h
- 15min Net Longs surging
-Strong 24h volume with spot participation
Capping factors:
-Funding more negative again
-Coinbase Premium dynamic and choppy (oscillating between positive spikes and negative)
-Heavy sell walls + large sells into strength overhead (~$79.5K–$80.5K)
-Apparent Demand still predominantly negative
Framework reads moderate tactical right now (Price UP + Delta UP choppy + OI UP recovering). Initiative buying trying to regain control.
This is a live tactical vs structural tension. Better tactical quality than recent attempts but needs fresh spot confirmation and a clean hold above $80.5K to gain real conviction.
How are you feeling about the repeated attempts around $80k? Think we can push through and hold?


English

@BlackMambaMilli 🌶️🌶️🌶️ We got some spicy takes ahaha.
It’s almost the too big to fail mantra for me.
But then I see how they handled and messed up Xbox… lol.
English

@notanotherquant Man i would never hold this company in a million years
The brand reputation has peaked and it’s trending to zero
English

If you bought $NKE exactly 10 years ago…
You’re sitting on a -25% ROI 😅
While the S&P500 ripped higher
Nike peaked. Brand is stale. Exec team lost the plot. Sales sliding. China bleeding
The only thing they still nail: “Just Do It”
“Just Do It” and sell your shares
Who’s still holding this zombie?
#Nike #Stocks #Investing #NKE

English

@wallstnomads This makes the current market more confusion to me lol. I feel like I am missing something 🤣
Yeah I focus on the Marco and fundamentals more so maybe that’s why I am confused ahaha.
English

Remember when they started talking about 40 year mortgages? That was a little indicator that they had Iran in their sights, knowing that inflation would run, rates have to go up so longer term loans ease the repayment burden. Charts are like reading a book about the future sometimes. Then when we saw the CRB index cup and handle and the oil falling wedge the pennies all started dropping. Just one massive puzzle. Not an economist on the planet can read all of that from macros or a fundamentalist from a balance sheet. TA rules the screens. Period🤣
English

















