maneesh dangi

On why firms fail Part 2 You can download PDF here. Link right at the bottom of the essay. mosaicamc.com/why-firms-fail…

@KalpenParekh I will be surprised if there isn’t a role reversal of these two by next Diwali.

Will the trend continue or IT will mean revert? Both are legitimate investing approaches @notarandomwalk ?

@kapilagam Agree. Monetary easing may resume after the attack on currency recede.

In today’s geopolitical backdrop : with the US disrupting trade flows and weighing on India’s export engine, it’s reasonable to expect policy action to lean toward supporting growth. Monetary policy is likely to turn more accommodative to cushion the slowdown. A ~50 bps compression in 10-year GOI yields over the next 12-18 months looks plausible. If that plays out, going long on duration in government bonds could deliver 10-12% returns over the period. I’m not a rates expert, but this is how it looks from a macro lens. Happy to hear other views. Maneesh your views : @notarandomwalk ?

Why Firms Fail: Insights from My Research with IIM Udaipur's Centre for Financial Research - Mosaic Asset Management mosaicamc.com/why-firms-fail…

@gurbachan_econ @MMF_research @KNRajEconClub @rethinkecon_in @nipfp_org_in @Radhikaskp @desaimihira @CPR_India @KingsIndiaInst @Ideas4India @pbmehta @rajshamani Land is his gift. Construct- we have to :)

Housing India has acres, acres and acres of land. Yet, it has limited homes in square feet! @MMF_research @KNRajEconClub @rethinkecon_in @nipfp_org_in @Radhikaskp @desaimihira @CPR_India @KingsIndiaInst @Ideas4India @notarandomwalk @pbmehta @rajshamani

@gurbachan_econ Fact= build up of bull & bear markets isn’t even, as the former is a long drawn out process and the latter, a snappy one. So= Steady position sizing and cutting framework is unlikely to yield better returns than index. Thus= BAF promise is beta reduction. Not OP.

Efficient market hypothesis (EMH) One test of EMH is whether actively managed fund can consistently beat a passive fund. Another test can be whether a product like balanced advantage fund can beat a passive pure equity fund in the long term @notarandomwalk

It’s a matter of immense joy and pride that India has come 4th in its best-ever performance in the International Maths Olympiad. Our contingent has brought home 4 Golds and one Silver Medal. This feat will inspire several other youngsters and help make mathematics even more popular.

#BudgetThinkTank | Watch top industry voices discuss what to expect from Budget 2024. #NDTVProfitLive #BudgetWithNDTVProfit @MFBALA @ravidharamshi77 @notarandomwalk Watch them in conversation with @niraj_shah, @SaminaNalwala and @TamannaInamdar. x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@niraj_shah @theMihirV @NileshShah68 @dugalira With the run rate of growth having reclaimed long-run, and inflation no longer racing towards 2% - the US has become a basket case.. ROW has had both cyclical slowdown and disinflation. The net product of this mix = trifecta of strong USD, UST and Crude. A rerun of 2022?

@niraj_shah @theMihirV @NileshShah68 @dugalira US Sov debt is limited by its inflation, not by any debt servicing metric. For most of us (India included), the debt is limited by CAD in addition to inflation. But beyond CAD and inflation, there is no obvious limit to the debt/GDP of any country.

Assuming current rates remain steady, the cost of servicing the Federal debt alone will approach 6% of GDP by year-end? Rate cuts ahead? Any thoughts? @notarandomwalk @theMihirV @NileshShah68 @dugalira

Talking Point | #MacroMosaic's Maneesh Dangi shares insight about his framework on equities and bonds, and what he makes of the growth versus valuation debate. #BQLive @niraj_shah twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@KalpenParekh Ones who pontificate about what CBs should do seldom get what they will do.

Our full careers have seen 🇺🇸 interest rates from 4% to 0% and 0% - 4% they were 12% 30 years back & were in secular decline till 0% last year Anything can happen that hasn’t happened in our careers So, Diversify Last point - don’t tell central banks what they should do

@harshmadhusudan access to advance computing tech wares, oil and Ferts.

What are possible national security risks for India from an economics and finance perspective? Over and above cyber etc, think in terms of macro, markets, etc.

@theMihirV PIT is more representative of the general population. CIT is all about elites. So if your objective was to highlight the egalitarianism of our times - it's fine. If it's the other - there is a hole in the mint. 😀

Since 2015 Personal income tax collected is up 4.2 times to Rs. 9 lakh crores Plus Rs. 7-8 lakh crores collected in oil/petrol/diesel taxes (up almost 3x since 2015) Corporate taxes are only up by 2.2 times Individual taxpayers continue to bear the biggest burden. This has impacted consumption recovery and will continue to do so Source: Mint

@abhymurarka ‘Mine must be the greatest country. Heil mayor!’ he mused. Slums seemed tiny from his high rise. Poverty distant. One day mayor came knocking to collect dimes because he was representative of all -not just of high risers. He screamed ‘why… i toh supported u’

Rest of the days: India is the greatest country in the world. India is the next super power. On day of change in regulations: India has the most abused middle class and tax paying segment.

@gurbachan_econ @latha_venkatesh @nikunjdalmia @RBI public debt is a set off to equalise the imbalance between r & g. (r is the return on capital). r>g leads to a few having a larger % of wealth.. and that gets re-rotated in the economy by public debt.

@notarandomwalk @latha_venkatesh @nikunjdalmia We may think of reducing r (interest rate) or increasing g (growth of GDP). But we may think of a third variable, lowering the path of the public debt level. It’s more hopeful and meaningful there. In a phased manner. @RBI #mof

For level field, #inflation indexation needs to be extended for bank deposits. The GOI is instead withdrawing the benefit of inflation #indexation from debt mutual funds. #Budget2023 Ganga ulti bah rahi hai @notarandomwalk @latha_venkatesh @nikunjdalmia

We spoke to Maneesh Dangi (@notarandomwalk), who predicted policy tightness before the Jerome Powell show happened. Here's some key thoughts from the conversation - on Fed, RBI and equities (A Thread)

Macro Mosaic Investing’s Maneesh Dangi decodes impact of banking fallout on risk assets, and shares his expectations from the upcoming U.S. #Fed meet. @niraj_shah #BQLive twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@gurbachan_econ @latha_venkatesh @pujamehra Hi. 10% MTM loss is rarer than 10% Credit Loss. For rarest of rare event- if risk management of bank fails, it must be allowed to go bankrupt. Accidents too have utility baked in😊

@notarandomwalk @latha_venkatesh @pujamehra Example. If capital is, say, 10% of assets, loss of ‘just’ 10% makes a bank bankrupt. Given the Fed policy of varying interest rates massively, and other possibilities, Basel norms are inadequate. 19th century ‘market norms’ were far tighter. @notarandomwalk

#siliconevalleybank made big investments in bonds. #Fed raised #interestrates SVB incurred losses that were large relative to capital. So #Basel norms are still not appropriate! @latha_venkatesh @notarandomwalk @pujamehra