
Notas de Inteligencia
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Notas de Inteligencia
@notasintel
Análisis de Estrategias. Por una cultura de la Inteligencia al servicio ciudadano. *Inteligencia es anticipación, todo lo demás es Información*


Se estrenó un 25 de mayo de 1977 La guerra de las galaxias de George Lucas. Y dijo una vez Yoda: "Hazlo o no lo hagas. No hay intentarlo." ⚔️ Esta frase tiene décadas instalada en la cultura popular. Y sigue teniendo razón. El intento como posición permanente es la forma más cómoda de no comprometerse con el resultado. Digo que lo intento y si sale mal, no he fallado, solo he intentado. El intento preserva el ego mientras evita la responsabilidad del fracaso real. Yoda lo corta de raíz. No hay término medio. O lo haces, con todo lo que eso implica, o no lo haces. Pero el intento eterno es una trampa disfrazada de virtud. Hoy se cumplen 49 años del estreno. La fuerza sigue con nosotros.

Finally, a big name has the courage to tell it: we are nowhere near AGI. Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind and Nobel laureate for AlphaFold, put it neat and clear: "Today's systems are nowhere near [AGI]. Doesn't matter how many Erdős problems you solve… I think it's far, far from what a true invention, or someone like Ramanujan, would have been able to do." This is the elephant in the room that many AI enthusiasts prefer not to see, or are actively trying to hide. Erdős problems are well defined, often combinatorial, on finite spaces. They are exactly the kind of problems on which current AI can achieve spectacular performance with a lot of compute and knowledge. A neural network can search a huge graph of possibilities. It can recombine existing knowledge at unprecedented scale. It can discover surprising solutions inside an already defined conceptual space. But true invention is something else. True invention is not only solving a problem. It is inventing new objects, new dimensions, new connections. It is inventing new problems. From resolving to inventing there is a discontinuity that we don't know how to bridge. We are making extraordinary tools. But we are nowhere close to AGI.




I feel like I'm eating crazy pills when I read the countless bad takes around how the Vatican would have virtually anointed Anthropic. When if you read the Pope's encyclical it's actually a COMPLETE repudiation of everything Anthropic - and U.S. AI generally - stands for. Read this part of the encyclical for instance (paragraph 110: #Artificial_intelligence" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">vatican.va/content/leo-xi…
): "Finally, I would like to employ the expression 'to disarm,' which is close to my heart. Disarming AI means freeing it from the mentality of 'armed' competition, which today is not limited simply to the military context, but is also an economic and cognitive phenomenon. This entails a race for ever more powerful algorithms and larger datasets, driven by the desire to secure geopolitical or commercial dominance. To disarm means discrediting the assumption that technical power automatically confers the right to govern. To disarm does not mean rejecting technology, but preventing it from dominating humanity. It means freeing technology from monopolistic control and opening it to discussion and debate, therefore making it human-friendly and restoring it to the plurality of human cultures and ways of life." In a nutshell what the Pope is saying is: 1) The "AI race" mentality itself is the disease: there is no "winning it responsibly", we need to stop seeing AI as a way "to secure geopolitical or commercial dominance" 2) Technical dominance and being the most powerful does not give you the right to set the rules 3) AI must be "freed from monopolistic control", opened to scrutiny, and "restored to the plurality of human cultures" Now compared and contrast it with what Anthropic is officially saying - namely Dario Amodei in his famous essay "Machines of Loving Grace" (darioamodei.com/essay/machines…): 1) Where the Pope says stop the AI race. Dario says win it: "A coalition of democracies [should seek] to gain a clear advantage on powerful AI by securing its supply chain, scaling quickly, and blocking or delaying adversaries' access to key resources like chips and semiconductor equipment." 2) Where the Pope says technical power doesn't confer the right to govern. Dario says it does: "This coalition would on one hand use AI to achieve robust military superiority (the stick) while at the same time offering to distribute the benefits of powerful AI (the carrot) to a wider and wider group of countries in exchange for supporting the coalition's strategy." 3) Where the Pope says free AI from monopolistic control and restore it to the plurality of human cultures. Dario says concentrate it and use it to impose one model: "If we can do all this, we will have a world in which democracies lead on the world stage and have the economic and military strength to avoid being undermined, conquered, or sabotaged by autocracies, and may be able to parlay their AI superiority into a durable advantage. This could optimistically lead to an 'eternal 1991.'" These aren't cherry-picked gotchas. This is the central thesis of Dario's essay. And Anthropic keeps repeating this over and over. On May 14, just days ago, Anthropic published a 5,000-word policy essay titled "2028: Two scenarios for global AI leadership" (anthropic.com/research/2028-…) urging the US to "lock in a 12-24 month lead" over China by blocking chips, cutting off model access, and ensuring that "democracies, not authoritarian regimes" control AI. They warn that "a lead in frontier AI will enable a widening lead across the full national security technology stack" and urge America not to "squander our advantage." This is, almost word for word, everything the Pope is condemning in his encyclical. I'll grant Anthropic one thing: they have an excellent PR team. Turning what's an obvious repudiation into a perceived endorsement is pretty masterful. But it doesn't mean you have to fall for it...





@simo780 @wawisamaroc @Morpheus11M2004 Si los filtros normativos ya no funcionan habrá que hacer como los chinos: purgas regulares El caso Plus Ultra nos muestra un Estado que no logra filtrar sus propias líneas rojas [una sociedad con deudas en la seguridad social no debe recibir ayudas públicas]

El ataque contra el edificio académico en #Starobelsk evidencia la esencia nazi del régimen de Kiev FF.AA. rusas lanzarán sistemáticamente ataques contra complejo militar-industrial ucraniano Advertimos de la necesidad de abandonar Kiev lo antes posible t.me/MAERusia/8085

🇻🇪 Según @MaxBlumenthal un exfuncionario de Trump, el señor Claver-Carone, es quien maneja las llaves de Caracas. Se asegura que esta persona es “quien elige quién puede operar” en Venezuela, controlando el acceso y la salida.


🇺🇸 Te has preguntado por qué el presupuesto militar más grande del mundo ha producido una base industrial que no puede sostener una guerra larga… Porque el sistema está roto, y se rompió porque se diseñó para beneficiar a un solo grupo, el financiero.


@simo780 @wawisamaroc Es el peaje de Trump al CCG *Si quieres que te defienda no me basta que defiendas el Petródolar, tienes que firmar el Abraham* Algunos, como AS será difícil que acepten por su defensa de la solución de los dos Estados [Israel y Palestina] Veremos





🔴 🚄 Coup de chaud dans les trains. Des passagers ont souffert dans un Paris Nice, immobilisés sur les voies en plein soleil pendant près de 4h. Les voitures n'étaient pas climatisées. Les passagers ont dû descendre du train pour pouvoir respirer. #JT20H



İstihbarat hakkındaki en büyük yanılgı, çok veriye sahip olmanın çok şey bilmek anlamına geldiğini sanmaktır. Bu kitap, CIA’in haber toplama ile analiz arasındaki uçurumu nasıl kapattığını özetliyor. Bir istihbarat servisini güçlü kılan, sahadaki eleman sayısı kadar,+


🏠 Los ayuntamientos baten récord de ingresos por el IBI con 13.412 millones de euros. El aumento del valor catastral de las viviendas está elevando poco a poco el recibo que pagan los propietarios. 💸 La cuota media ya alcanza los 344 euros por vivienda, aunque en Madrid y Barcelona supera los 500 euros. El IBI sigue siendo la principal fuente de financiación de los consistorios. eleconomista.es/legal/noticias… Por @soyevadiaz


LARRY FINK says America needs trillions in AI infrastructure spend, and YOU must "invest" in it "to be the leader in AI...[will] require trillions... in investments" "Much of this... [will come] from...savings accounts, pension accounts...insurance companies" "This is a must"


