Seth Bregman

People are saying long vol or tail hedging strategy doesn't work. it does. its just you can't make it work. shit is not that hard ok? buy low sell high. for example now vix is set to go higher in the next week. bookmark this and shit all over me if i get it wrong.

There’s always a valuable lesson and a positive takeaway in every fund collapse. I’m no volatility expert, and I hope someone does a thorough autopsy of what happened, but here are my immediate takeaways: 1) Tail risk hedging is really, really hard. There’s a reason the classic 60/40 stock/bond portfolio remains the most popular allocation in the world: the 40% in bonds is still the simplest, most reliable positively asymmetric long-term hedge most investors can implement. It’s not perfect, but it’s “good enough” for the vast majority of people who just want durable diversification without needing to be geniuses. 2) Shorting (and short vol strategies) is also really, really hard. You’re fighting the long-term upward drift of markets, dealing with asymmetric payoffs that require big moves to pay off, and battling time decay plus carrying costs. What looks elegant on a backtest becomes brutally difficult in live markets. At the end of the day, the clearest lesson is this: investing is hard. You don't need to make it harder. If you decide to actively trade, time the market, or run sophisticated strategies, understand that you’re voluntarily making an already difficult game even tougher. You might capture more upside along the way, but the margin for error shrinks. I hope everyone finds some positivity in all of this.