Owen Davis
3.4K posts

Owen Davis
@odavis_
Labor economics, demographics, technology. Senior economist at NYC Independent Budget Office. Mycophile.
Brooklyn Katılım Ağustos 2012
1.3K Takip Edilen2.5K Takipçiler

@rick_carp yes exactly! so the real problem goes back to photoshop...
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This is one of the most important facts to understand wage growth for low wage workers in the US last fifty years imo
Arin Dube@arindube
A striking fact I learnt researching my book: For those in the bottom half, much of the real wage growth between 1979 and 2019 happened over just 7 "tight" years. For top wages, full employment wasn't a big deal. For bottom wages, it was the nearly the whole game.
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Extremely impressive and inspiring writeup. Someone with no technical background talking about building an LLM that talks like something out of a Victorian-era novel for less than $500.
Nomadic Warriors for Pritzker⚔️@Nomads4Pritzker
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We completed the most comprehensive study of how economists and AI experts think AI will affect the U.S. economy.
They predict major AI progress—but no dramatic break from economic trends: GDP growth rates similar to today's and a moderate decline in labor force participation.
However, when asked to consider what would happen in a world with extremely rapid progress in AI capabilities by 2030, they predict significant economic impacts by 2050:
• Annualized GDP growth of 3.5% (compared to 2.4% in 2025)
• A labor force participation rate of 55% (roughly 10 million fewer jobs)
• 80% of wealth held by the top 10% (highest since 1939)
🧵 Here's what we found:


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@tysonbrody Craisgslist exposure is one of the shocks they use here to show local newspaper deaths raise municipal borrowing rates sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
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Wow, a 2025 study found you could connect Craigslist entering a city with a decline in local newspaper staffing, leading to a decline in politics coverage, which in turn led to a decline in readership, which they connect to more partisan voting and extreme candidates.

I'm not mad I actually think it's funny@herr_naphta
@tysonbrody The econometrics on this are very solid as well: academic.oup.com/restud/article…
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working paper: arxiv.org/pdf/2603.03144
wsj: wsj.com/tech/ai/the-pe…
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