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Sean
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$ONDS is trading at $9 and a lot of people are giving up.
Beyond the broader defense sector being out of favor, there is real pressure on this stock specifically that will break you if you haven’t done the work.
In my opinion, these headwinds are largely mechanical and also temporary.
1. The warrant overhang is the primary suppressor
Approximately 200 million warrants are outstanding from the October 2025 and January 2026 offerings.
The hedges were likely established in January as static positions, serving as mechanical selling pressure that sits on the stock regardless of what the business does operationally.
Every rally gets met with the same structural supply.
Record revenue gets reported and the stock gets sold anyway, not because of bearish conviction but because of mechanics that have nothing to do with fundamental value.
2. The retail cost basis creates a persistent ceiling
The stock ran hard around the January offering.
Retail investors who bought at higher prices are underwater and sell on green days to reduce losses and free up funds to chase something else.
This creates consistent resistance that has nothing to do with the business and everything to do with where people bought.
3. The comprehension gap is real and the profitability optics make it worse
Building a complete understanding of this company requires going through earnings transcripts, primary source research, management interviews, SEC filings, defense publications, and the list goes on.
Most investors have not done that work.
And the P&L is another thing. A $10.9M adjusted EBITDA loss against $50M in revenue seems concerning to anyone who has not understood the deliberate investment logic behind it.
Confusion and incomplete information create sellers at the exact moment that informed investors should be buying.
Important to keep in mind:
The warrant hedges unwind as the stock approaches $20.
The retail overhang clears as the thesis becomes undeniable (it’s already starting to).
The comprehension gap closes as expedited OAS profitability, operating leverage, backlog execution, and the software layer become visible in reported financials.
The catalysts are already in motion if you’ve been paying attention to what’s happening behind the scenes.
The business is not broken… it’s actually anything but that.
The market just hasn’t figured out what it is yet.
Everyone wants this to be easy, but it just isn’t.
If it were easy, the stock would already be at $20.
The difficulty of this thesis is actually what creates the gap between $9 and $20.
The market discounts what it does not understand.
The investors who did the work on $RKLB under $10 sat through the same frustration, the same pressure, and the same comprehension gap, but held anyway because they understood what they owned well enough to trust the thesis over the seemingly endless FUD.
That is what $ONDS requires at this point.
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@ChairmansLedger I’m a big believer in Eric Brock. I’ve seen some videos of him and each time I come away with more understanding of his vision, his company and I always learn something new about finance
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@odoylerulz17 Yes, that feels good. Trust your gut. You can rent conviction for a while but ultimately it needs to be your own. The good news is if we’re right, we win together and if we’re wrong, we lose together. 🫡🤝
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2 weeks on X.
A lot of new people in the room since the below, so this is probably the cleanest way to understand my public portfolio and how I see the next decade.
The Chairman's Ledger@ChairmansLedger
Closing out 2 weeks on X. People are asking about my public portfolio construction. I think it’s clear that I have a bias towards chaos and I think the next decade gets more chaotic, more disrupted by AI and more resource constrained because of it. And of course more violent. So I want exposure to the things that matter in that world. $ONDS: autonomous defense system of systems. $IREN: compute in a market starving for capacity. $ASTS: D2D satellite connectivity for resilient global comms. $RKLB: vertically integrated launch and space systems for sovereign access to orbit. $KRKNF: subsea robotics for defense, energy and critical subsea and offshore infra. $DGXX: my early IREN style compute play. $SIVE: laser photonics choke point for AI infra. $ASPI: isotope separation across silicon 28, enriched uranium, helium and other strategic materials. $TRT: semi burn in and back end testing capacity. The future pays a premium for infrastructure that cannot be bombed, jammed, starved or routed around. And in the spirit of transparency, it’s an 8 figure portfolio. - TCL
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@ChairmansLedger Not as much as you big guys but I’m working on it slowly. Appreciate seeing higher level investors than me validate my thinking as a result of my due diligence 🫡
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@ChairmansLedger Really enjoy seeing your insights. Working class guy. Own my house and my son just finished sophomore year in HS in a private school I pay handsomely for. Have a workplace retirement account but have opened a 2k account for asymmetrical stocks. Currently have ondas at 58%port
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@SoberImposter Amazing journey. Makes me proud to call you a friend. You inspire me Laura🫶🏻
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Running in sobriety transformed my life 🎯🏃🏽♀️ When I started, I struggled—running & new job, both scary! Years of excess left me weak, needing a cane at 29. But through #Running, I gained more than strength. At 36, I'm not a pro athlete, but I've found #Perseverance,
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