optibrebs

Even later than usual on the EPL futures given early first game - but here they are (probs/odds are for before a ball has been kicked). Some interesting predictions throughout - I'm surprised it has some teams regressing while others not.

Updated points and probs after Gameweek 30.1 Another good week for the Gunners with City drawing at home and Villa losing. Man United know into expected 3rd. Sunderland value for the handicap for the first time , albeit at skinny odds.

Updated points and probs after Gameweek 29.1 Missed the update prior to the weekend so posting it now. It was a good matchday for Arsenal with the chasing pack all dropping points. Blocks of edges against the market still to be found

Even later than usual on the EPL futures given early first game - but here they are (probs/odds are for before a ball has been kicked). Some interesting predictions throughout - I'm surprised it has some teams regressing while others not.

@octonion Not closed form to my knowledge, but can be solved for if you consider all combinations of runners to finish 1st/2nd - ie instead of a 200% "will this runner finish top 2" set of probs, use a 100% "will these 2 horses finish 1st + 2nd" set

Has the structure of optimal place-only Kelly wagering been studied before? By this, I mean wagering on place bets only. Win-only has a closed-form for optimal bet fractions.

@roberto_boberto @SgtButane @HawthornFC Your auto-reply is still on

@optibrebs @SgtButane @HawthornFC Bring back barefoot and I might

used AI to evaluate the use of player ratings (NAS game better than Daicos) vs SC daicos game greater than NAS game. @HawthornFC please get Sammy to reach out.

@roberto_boberto @SgtButane @HawthornFC Add in fantasy and see what happens then 🤔

@SgtButane @HawthornFC yeah basically have simple elo for team ratings then go add in player ratings as a variable (SC or player ratings) Player ratings get optimised to 0 i.e. team ratings dominate. SC parameter is optimised to non zero.

Something I've been working on for a little bit, I think it's now fit for a more public test. A searchable trade browser covering all seasons of AFLW aflwtrades.beta.credittodubois.com Search by player, club involved, or what type of thing was traded. Let me know what you think