ConsumerTechBets

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ConsumerTechBets

ConsumerTechBets

@optionsly

High Growth US Consumer Tech. Previously at 3 midcap public tech cos. Voting and weighing stocks. raw thoughts. dms open.

San Francisco, CA Katılım Ekim 2020
740 Takip Edilen2.9K Takipçiler
ConsumerTechBets
ConsumerTechBets@optionsly·
@Investor_NICK_ Its only 1% back in other categories which kinda sucks vs gold but maybe comparable to peers
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Kairos
Kairos@KairosPraxis·
@optionsly How are they profitable on 5% cash back lol.
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Dusted
Dusted@shulatrenches·
@optionsly 20B revenue seems like a lot for a software company, but not a lot for a utility company
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Green Lark
Green Lark@the_green_lark·
@optionsly it's less of tiring routine/detail work, more high level and fun.
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Franny
Franny@Frandell8·
I was working more than i realized i was hitting my self with a staggering amount of increased scope. And for coding tasks that i do now, soon as the personal project got past MVP level, i slowed down considerably. I rather get a 20% increased bump and know every line of code than get a 50x bump and not understand the system and "vibe debug".
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ConsumerTechBets
ConsumerTechBets@optionsly·
@dwlz hes implying any market where death is involved will not resolve yes/no but a third outcome which is a “refund”
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Dan Loewenherz
Dan Loewenherz@dwlz·
Isn't every single prediction market involving a specific human "directly tied to death"? "2008 U.S. Presidential Election winner" "Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?" "Who will win Survivor Season 50?" I can't think of a single contract of this variety where a death wouldn't alter the outcome. The only ethically consistent decision would be to stop offering these contracts full-stop. Just to illustrate the prevalence of such contracts, I took the Kalshi front page and highlighted those that would be "directly tied to death". It's a large portion. Maybe even most of them? I think Kalshi should: 1) Either walk this statement back and fulfill the original contract as originally stated. OR 2) Stop offering markets that involve a specific person, as the outcome of every single one of them would be significantly altered by a death. (I have no financial interest here. Not an investor in Kalshi, Polymarket, nor have I used a prediction market for anything other than to incentivize a friend to lose some weight.)
Dan Loewenherz tweet media
Tarek Mansour@mansourtarek_

On Khamenei: We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here. I know some of you disagree and prefer that we list these markets without a death carveout because it keeps the rules simple and because many traditional markets, like oil futures, can be proxy markets for war and death. But we believe that’s different than having a market directly settling on someone’s death, which is not allowed for US regulated entities. What’s the point of the market, then? A market on Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader was important because leadership changes in Iran have major impact on the world order: • geopolitical implications • economic consequences • national security considerations • oil and commodity prices, many of which move based on news and expectations around this outcome And it’s always possible for a ruler to step down or transition power without death, even in autocracies. It just happened in Venezuela. In these instances, we make the caveat clear in the rules and in the market page, but today is a good learning that we can do more in terms of improving the UX and adding more ways to surface the rules. We are committed to improving. In the meantime, here’s what we’re going to do: • We are reimbursing all fees from this market • If you have a position from before Khamenei died, you will be paid out on the last-traded price before his death. (This was clear in our rules) • If you have a position from after he died, we’re going to fully reimburse your cost of entry

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ConsumerTechBets
ConsumerTechBets@optionsly·
Re: $xyz “we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly.”
jack@jack

we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company. #### today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone. first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay. we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly. i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures. a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers. we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold. to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward. to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow. jack

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ConsumerTechBets
ConsumerTechBets@optionsly·
Insane 40% layoff $xyz (Block/Square) "A significantly smaller team, using the tools we're building, can do more and do it better. And intelligence tool capabilities are compounding faster every week"
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ConsumerTechBets
ConsumerTechBets@optionsly·
@justin_abrams1 @pitdesi AWS is a great example because theres many competitors and somehow its still one of the best businesses in the world. And so are the competitors
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Justin Abrams
Justin Abrams@justin_abrams1·
@pitdesi I disagree with the Citrini piece but I think Doordash is arguably it's best point. It's like people looking at AWS and saying there won't be any new players when MSFT and Google can enter No reason Toast or Owner dot com can't quickly code up a decent alternative
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Sheel Mohnot
Sheel Mohnot@pitdesi·
Everyone dunked on the DoorDash part of the Citrini piece, but replace it with OTAs. Why would an AI agent use Expedia? It can check every airline/hotel directly. OTAs exist (& charge hotels ~15%) because comparison shopping is tedious for humans. Hotels will opt out, right?
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ConsumerTechBets
ConsumerTechBets@optionsly·
Personal experience from using AI: Big increase in productivity output per my hour. So I work less? opposite...opportunity costs is way higher. extremely maxed out
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