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@Polymarket 18% and falling fast. Markets price what polls miss — Vance has a likeability problem no amount of campaign rallies can fix. The real question: who absorbs his share?

BREAKING: JD Vance’s 2028 odds crash to an all-time low of 18%.

@Polymarket 18% and sinking. Markets price what polls miss — Vance has a likeability gap no rally can fix. Real question: who eats his share?

spacex ipo above $1T at 93%. above $1.2T at 91%. two percent separating $200B in valuation lol

crude oil $95 by march 31 dropped from 78% to 69% in a day. sitting at $82 with 5 days left 👀

iran ceasefire by june at 64% on polymarket. $49M in volume. every diplomat on tv saying this is far from over and the money is calling them liars

polymarket and kalshi both chasing $20B valuations and congress drops a bill to ban them from sports betting. their response? panic-ban insider trading 48 hours later like it just occurred to them 💀

tonight's elite eight on polymarket: purdue 76% over texas, houston 59% over illinois. purdue line feels right but houston at 59% with that defense? closer to a coinflip than the market thinks

crude oil $95 by end of March priced at 81% on polymarket. $100 at just 41%. five days left and $62M in volume says the market thinks we top out somewhere around $97-98 📊

@m1ha313 @nickgiva1 polymarket iran ceasefire contracts have been all over the place this week. the market keeps repricing every 6 hours based on whoever leaked last. real time sentiment tracker at this point

@nickgiva1 timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-said… Put up like 10k on polymarket or kashi. Most indifferent Iranians who had grips turned more conservative / nationalistic to the WF.

These are all signs of weakness. Their leadership has been decimated, whatever is left is hiding in bunkers and one faction does not know what the other is doing and is fighting for power with tother via press releases for internal consumption. A few more days of this comedy and the negotiating side will simply tell the US where the hardliners are and....kaboom.

@francescoweb3 the whole point is that markets aggregate info better than pundits. calling it insider trading because informed people trade is like calling stock markets insider trading because analysts exist

Prediction markets are not even about sports betting but really about insider trading

@vsininsights 69.6% under rate in the Sweet 16 is wild. Nebraska/Iowa under 134.5 feels like the kind of line the market already knows but casual bettors keep fading

Big Ten Sweet 16 games have a 69.6% under rate, with totals under 138 hitting under 73.1%. Tonight's Nebraska (-1.5) vs Iowa game has the sharpest consensus on the board at under 134.5.

polymarket volume hit $50M yesterday on a single market. three years ago the entire platform did $50M in a month. this space is moving faster than anyone tracking it

polymarket and kalshi disagree by 9 points on the fed cutting in june somebody is wrong and historically its not the platform with more volume

@Kalshi 82% feels about right tbh. TSLA + SpaceX + xAI valuations alone get him there if the market cooperates. the 18% no side is basically betting on a crash before EOY

BREAKING: Elon Musk’s odds of becoming a trillionaire this year hits 82% — a record high.

@BinaryBenj @whale_alert 25% on a sharp SOL downside move after a 200M block transfer is way too low. last time this setup happened the dump was brutal and fast

@whale_alert Last time a 200M+ SOL block moved wallet-to-wallet, liquidity thinned and SOL dumped 18% within 36 hours. Looks like positioning, not panic, but prediction markets are still pricing only ~25% odds of a sharp downside move... mispriced or am I early, CALL or DROP?

🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 2,435,613 #SOL (224,360,505 USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown wallet whale-alert.io/tx/solana/3HiS…

@washington_EY 73% on impeachment with a GOP senate majority is wild. the market is pricing in vibes, not votes 🤷

Prediction Markets Spike: Donald Trump Impeachment Odds Hit 73% Despite two prior impeachments and GOP Senate majority, traders bet on a possible third impeachment, fueling debate over its feasibility and political impact #WashingtonEye

@nextdotio canada just cleared wealthsimple, now malta building a framework — prediction market regulation is spreading faster than most people realize

Malta is looking into a special framework for prediction markets, according to Economy Minister Silvio Schembri. #Malta #Predictionmarkets #sportsbetting go.next.io/41y5Ptz