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I'm basically full ported on Launchcoin as I believe its the best play on sol we've ever seen. In my mind there's no doubt it will hit a billion, let me break down the opportunity:
Starting with Ben, he's one of the most accomplished founders in the eco. Here’s a brief overview of his background for those not familiar:
- cofounded Impossible Rush: top 15 app on the App Store with millions of downloads at age 13
- founded Monkey (prev. Flogg) over 20 million users and is still viral and relevant today. Acquired in 2018
- founded Simulate/Nuggs in 2019: raised 50-60m at 250m valuation
Ben is a multi-time entrepreneur with a very strong eye for building viral products. Ben was already very rich prior to Believe, and I highly doubt he is here just to make a little more money. The thing about founders like Ben is that they are playing the LEGACY game. Ben is here to build something generational, and I can’t think of a better person to do it.
(Yes, i still crash out every time I see him hanging out with his girlfriend, but building something huge takes time, and everyone needs downtime and relationships. Web3 founders are ppl too, let's not forget.)
Flywheel:
At this point, the launchcoin flywheel is a matter of WHEN, not IF. Ben has already confirmed this on his recent posts, and I’m pretty sure it’ll be like a 100% flywheel when launched. What took all this time is that Ben and Believe are US-based, which makes this kind of stuff impossible. Tom and other founders can just do whatever they want because they are from wherever the fuck. While being from the US is annoying for this legal shit, it provides Believe a HUGE advantage in terms of proximity to real companies that will launch on Believe. I believe the flywheel is important, but ultimately NOT what is going to take Believe to the big B. After all, there’s not much revenue to flywheel (currently, more on this later)
Tokenized Equity:
This is what I think makes Launchcoin a billion-dollar project and beyond if they can pull this off. The Believe Foundation they set up for the flywheel also makes this possible.
First came onto my radar with this tweet: x.com/amrix_j/status…
(Ben liked this tweet)
Ben is a tiny bit autistic on the comms but he’s not retarded. I’d be very surprised if he’s spent all this time silently working on some lame ass flywheel. I think its more likely he’s been exploring this option.
How this might look in practice:
- Believe Foundation invests in XYZ Company (lets say Cluely for this example)
- So now Believe fndn owns 1m shares in Cluely
- They issue a “cluely token” representative of the equity they own for traders to trade around
- All of this is facilitated through their overseas foundation, and thus, no US legal trouble
- If cluely IPOs or is acquired or some liquidity event happens, people holding cluely coin can have the same access to the event through the Believe Foundation
For companies, this is really interesting because they will no longer have to launch their own coin, which removes a lot of the stigma. They will just have this Believe foundation on their cap table just like any other regular investor. The Believe Foundation wins by collecting fees on the trading of the token. Traders get access to the hottest companies that they wouldn't have before.
This changes EVERYTHING. Believe was limited because before companies didn’t want to launch some random token, kinda but not really associated with their company, because it’s viewed as scammy. It would be unthinkable for Cluely to just have a random Cluely coin, but now a Cluely coin that's part of their equity cap table seems much more reasonable, as it is normal in startups.
Thoughts on the Solana eco:
Currently, the sol eco is kind of bland. Lots of memes and narratives have been done, and you see a lot of recycling between something that ran on pump that gets relaunched on bonk and now back to pump ig? Of course, this is with the exception of the rare new stuff like Spark and Tokabu, but I believe a majority would agree that new pairs are a slopfest. Launchcoin in May was like a breath of fresh air in the eco, which is why it attracted so much volume so quickly.
Launchcoin having tokens for hot private entities is the key for HUGE amounts of institutional money to flow into the ecosystem. Top-tier funds FIGHT AND SCRAP to get into all of these hot startup rounds. Using the Cluely example again, their round is currently full until they raise again at a higher valuation. Now imagine if VC funds like YC or a16z that want more exposure could simply BUY the token associated with equity freely alongside traders? Now that could truly change things.
The Solana Foundation knows that in order for Solana to take the next step, it needs to become more legitimate. ICM is the best route for this to happen; they even had ICM in their bio briefly previously. I believe once all of these things start to fall into place for Believe, the Solana Foundation will endlessly shill them and champion them to lead the space forward.
Risks of this trade:
I’m not blind to the fact that this trade has its fair share of risks. In my opinion, the execution timeline is the largest. With how hard majors are running, I am almost certain we will see a huge crypto winter in the next 12 months. With everything I’ve outlined above, it is possible that it doesn't come to reality before then.
The second risk I feel is most pertinent here is changing the mindset of having a coin about your company. I am a web2 founder myself, and even I don’t like the thought of having a coin about my company because of how it is perceived. Now, the Believe Foundation could buy into rounds at a premium to put icing on the cake for them to be let into rounds and look past having a coin stigma. I also think it's very possible that Ben is able to change the perception of having a company coin. All it takes is ONE huge company to launch and be cool with the coin for all the perception to change.
godspeed to all my fellow launchcoin holders.
Pasternak mode.
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