Cryptic Trades@CrypticTrades_
These are the most important levels I'm currently tracking across stocks and crypto in the PAT Watchlist for this week.
Some are buy zones. Some are areas where I'm looking to de-risk, hedge, secure profits, or scale out of hedges.
I'll also share my current stance and positioning on each one.
$MSFT - The price has continued higher off the $355-$358 bounce zone I covered in the prior "Levels To Track" thread and is now trading around $390. The move up has been steady, but I'm still tracking $412 as the next important level, which is the lost support range aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci POI. As long as the price keeps holding above the $384-$385 area, I expect it to keep grinding toward that range, where I'll be watching for the first meaningful reaction.
$TSLA - The price bounced off the high-timeframe support range at $390, exactly as our base case called for, and pushed all the way up toward $427 before running out of steam just shy of the $430 range I flagged as a likely rejection zone. As covered in a prior alert, my position was accumulated around the $390-$400 zone, bringing it to 9.2% of my total equity portfolio. Since then, the price has pulled back to around $395 on renewed competition headlines out of China. The $385 level remains the key level the price must hold above. As long as it does, $430 stays the level I'm watching for a short-term rejection, just like in prior instances when this range was tested.
$BABA - This is where the picture has changed the most. For weeks, I was fully hedged after hedging 50% of my spot holdings back in May, and my base case remained bearish on the low timeframes unless the price could reclaim $105. It has now done exactly that. The price pushed back above the lost $105 support range and is now trading around $112. Because of this, I exited my hedges and rotated the capital back into spot around $107, keeping my position stable at 3%. With $105 now reclaimed, I'm treating that range as support, and as long as the price holds above it, I believe the base case has flipped to the upside. A loss of $105 would put me back on guard, but for now, the reclaim has invalidated the previous bearish setup.
$UNH - Still neutral. The price has kept grinding toward its highs, tapping the $434 area before easing back to around $425. I'm still holding my position and waiting for the price to reach the high-timeframe resistance at $465, where I'm looking to de-risk part of my spot holdings. With earnings due in the coming days, I'm not taking a more decisive stance until the price either reaches that level or gives me a clearer signal.
$NVO - Still bullish. The price broke above the lost high-timeframe support range I covered in prior PAT Updates and has been holding above it, which keeps the structure constructive. It hasn't yet made a decisive push, and is still consolidating around $49-$50, but as long as it keeps holding that reclaimed range, I believe the most likely outcome remains further upside toward the high-timeframe resistance range at $58, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci POI.
$LLY - Still neutral. As I noted after the break above the high-timeframe resistance at $1,150, aligning with the 1.414 Fibonacci extension level, I was expecting a possible bullish backtest before any move toward the next high-timeframe resistance range at $1,260, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci POI. The price has now played out both sides of that. It pushed up toward the $1,260 zone, topping near $1,235-$1,250, before rejecting and pulling back to around $1,190. This looks like the backtest I was watching for, and as long as the price holds above the reclaimed $1,150, I'm simply holding my spot position and not taking a decisive stance until there are further developments.
$OSCR - Still bullish. The price has continued to press into new highs, tapping the $33 area before easing back to around $31. Even though I de-risked 25% of my spot holdings around $30, I still have the majority of my spot holdings in place and I'm still enjoying the current upside. As long as the price keeps holding above $30, the trend remains intact, and if it does reverse, I still have the ability to hedge in order to mitigate short-term downside risk.
$HIMS - Still bullish. The price reached toward my $40 target, tapping around $38, where I secured partial profits as planned, reducing my position to 4.7%. It then pulled back into the mid-$30s, and because I still believe in the broader uptrend, I added back around $34, bringing my position to 5%. As long as the price keeps holding above the 1D Bull Market Support Band in the low $30s, I remain bullish, and I'll again be watching the $40 area on any renewed push higher.
$NKE - Still fully hedged from months ago. Nothing has changed here. The price is still hovering near its lows around $44, with no signs of strength or recovery, just a continuation of the high-timeframe downtrend. For now, it remains a falling knife, and I have no reason to touch the hedge yet.
$LULU - Still neutral. The price is holding just above the 1D Bull Market Support Band at $116, trading around $119-$120, but I'm still waiting for sustained strength to confirm this is not just a deviation before the high-timeframe downtrend continues. With the stock still sitting near its lows and the broader trend still intact, I haven't seen the decisive acceptance I need. If the price can hold above the support band over the next several sessions, I will scale out of my hedges and rotate the capital back into spot, since that would open the door for a larger reversal to the upside. Until then, I'm staying patient.
$TGT - Still bullish. As I covered previously, the price rejected at the high-timeframe resistance range, briefly deviated above it, and then broke below the 0.5 Fibonacci POI at $133. It has since reclaimed that level and is now trading around $135, still holding comfortably above the 2D Bull Market Support Band at $129. This band has been a strong support over the past couple of months, and as long as the price keeps staying above it, the most likely outcome remains further upside.
$KO - Still bearish, but the price has now pushed right into the high-timeframe resistance range at $84, even printing a marginal new high there before stalling around $83-$84. This is exactly the level I've been watching, and until the price can show acceptance above it, I expect it to keep acting as a ceiling. As before, I'm simply holding my spot position for diversification purposes.
$PEP - I still don't own it, and it has continued to underperform $KO. The price has now dropped deeper into the high-timeframe support range at $135-$140 I flagged previously, trading around $138 near its 52-week lows after a soft quarterly report. For those interested in the stock, this remains a potential buying opportunity inside that support range, but personally, I still prefer $KO.
$ORCL - As I set up previously, I had buy orders sitting at the high-timeframe support range around $140, where I said I'd be scaling out of my hedges and rotating the capital back into spot. The price did give me the deeper leg lower I was expecting, sliding all the way into the low $130s, and I accumulated across the range. As covered in prior alerts, I added around $137, $135, and $131.5, building the position to roughly 2.2%. Short term, I remain neutral, since the price is now sitting right on the lower boundary of the range near $131 and could still stay volatile down here. Mid-term, I continue to believe this is a good buying opportunity.
$UBER - Still neutral. The price has kept consolidating inside the same high-timeframe support range, ticking up toward the $74-$75 top of the range but still doing very little overall. As I've mentioned before, this is where I bought a couple of months ago, and my position continues to do almost nothing. For now, I'm still waiting for a clearer directional move out of this range before taking a more decisive stance.
$AMD, $ASML, $MU, $INTC, $DELL - As many of you already know, I've been an investor in AI chip stocks and semis throughout late 2024 and early 2025, back when AMD was called the "Advanced Money Destroyer."
As covered in prior updates, I de-risked a large portion of my spot holdings over the past months in order to rotate capital into industries that had lagged behind, like Chinese equities, healthcare, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, where I believed the risk-reward setup was better. I still have about 25-40% of my spot holdings left, depending on the stock, but I've already secured 250-400% in profits from them, so I'm comfortable letting the rest run without getting greedy.
What's notable is that the group has actually kept pushing to fresh highs since I trimmed, with AMD back into the $540s, DELL near $450, ASML near $1,850, and Micron continuing its run. So the remaining exposure has kept working. But the character of the tape is changing. We've now seen a couple of sharp de-risking days, first on the AI-memory overproduction scare and again as semis sold off hard on renewed US-Iran tensions and profit-taking, while the laggards I rotated into, from Chinese equities to healthcare, consumer names, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, started to catch a bid. That's the rotation I've been expecting, and while semi and AI-chip leadership hasn't broken yet, it's consolidating near highs with increasingly violent shakeouts. I expect this rotation to keep playing out over the coming weeks and months.
$UPS - The picture here has shifted. Previously, I was short-term bearish while the price was testing the high-timeframe resistance range at $100, which had marked several prior local tops. The price has now broken cleanly above that range and is trading around $112, close to its 52-week high. That breakout flips my short-term stance. I now want to see $100 hold as support, and as long as it does, the door is open toward the prior high around $122.
$SOFI - Still bullish. The price bounced off the high-timeframe support range I marked in prior PAT Updates and reclaimed the 1D Bull Market Support Band at $17.4, which has been a strong reversal spot over the last couple of months. It has since pulled back into the high teens around $18, but it's still holding above that band and the $17.5-$18 support. Because of this, as long as the price keeps holding above the support band, the most likely outcome remains further upside.
$SNOW - Still bearish into strength. The price has pushed all the way up into the high-timeframe resistance range that marked the top in November 2025 and again in May earlier this year, now trading around $272 and pressing against its 52-week highs. Because of this, I continued reducing into the move, scaling my exposure down further to 1% around $260 after accumulating at $140 in late April. I'm treating this zone as a distribution area and staying cautious until the price either breaks out with acceptance or rejects from here.
$COIN - I remain bullish on the mid-term and neutral on the low timeframes. As covered in a prior alert, I accumulated around $156, and since then, the price has kept consolidating inside the same high-timeframe accumulation range it has been in for months, currently trading right around that same $156 area. Because of this, until the price manages to break above the 3D Bull Market Support Band at $178, I believe the most likely outcome remains further consolidation.
$MSTR - Still neutral. As covered previously, I scaled out of 25% of my hedges and rotated the capital back into spot, after being fully hedged for months. The recent weakness in Bitcoin has pushed the price back down toward the top of the $65-$82 high-timeframe support range, the same zone that acted as strong resistance throughout 2021, with the stock now trading in the low-to-mid $80s near its lows. I continue to view this range as a good accumulation opportunity after the massive high-timeframe downtrend and the 85%+ correction from the 2024 peak. For now, I remain bearish on the low timeframes until the price can break above the high-timeframe resistance range at $110.
$HOOD - Still bullish, but the price is now backtesting the breakout. After breaking above the high-timeframe resistance range at $110, the price pushed up toward $119, where I secured partial profits from my spot position around $116, reducing my exposure to 3.8%. It has since pulled back and is retesting the $110 breakout level, trading around $108-$112. As long as the price can hold and reclaim $110, the structure stays intact and the door remains open toward the high-timeframe resistance around $135, where I'll look to secure the rest. A sustained loss of $110 would be the first sign the breakout is failing.
$MARA - Still bullish. The price bounced off the high-timeframe support range at $12, which previously acted as strong resistance, and pushed up toward the $14-$15 area on the back of its recent land deal. I believe that as long as the price keeps staying above $12, the most likely outcome remains a reversal to the upside. A breakdown below it would prompt me to hedge part of my spot holdings in order to mitigate downside risk, since that would open the door for a deeper pullback toward $9.
$CLSK - Still bullish. The price bounced off the high-timeframe support range at $12.6, aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci POI, and is holding around $13. I believe that as long as the price keeps staying above this level, the most likely outcome remains a reversal to the upside. However, a breakdown below it would prompt me to hedge part of my spot holdings, since that would open the door for a deeper pullback toward $9.5.
$IREN - Still bullish. The price bounced off the high-timeframe support range at $40, where I accumulated as covered in one of my prior alerts, and has been holding comfortably above it, helped by the large HPC deal that added a fresh catalyst. The base case continues to play out, and right now I want to keep seeing the price stay above $38, which is the current invalidation level. As long as it does, I expect a more durable reversal to the upside in the coming days and weeks toward the high-timeframe resistance range at $60, where the price rejected before this downtrend.
$CIFR - Still cautious on the low timeframes, but with a small improvement. The price bounced off the high-timeframe support range around $20 and has now reclaimed the lost 1.414 Fibonacci extension level at $21.7, trading around $22, which is the bottoming zone of the high-timeframe resistance range aligning with the 1.414 and 1.618 Fibonacci extension levels. As covered in a prior alert, I added to my spot holdings as this range was being tested, because I still believe the stock is undervalued from a fundamental perspective and that the most likely outcome from here is continuation to the upside. Now that $21.7 has been reclaimed, I want to see the price hold above it. But until there are clearer signs of strength on the low timeframes signaling a durable recovery, I believe the best approach is to remain somewhat cautious and ready for further consolidation between $20 and $21.7-$22.
$BTC - As covered in prior alerts, I have scaled out of 50% of my hedges and rotated the capital back into spot, with my last buy being at $58,580. The relief bounce did push higher, tagging roughly $64K, but it stalled just short of the level that matters, the lost high-timeframe support range at $65K, and has since faded back toward the low $60Ks, currently around $61.9K. Until the price can break above and reclaim $65K, I'm treating this as a relief bounce rather than a confirmed reversal, and I won't continue scaling out of my hedges. If the low $60Ks give way instead, I would expect a deeper pullback into the low $50Ks, where I would look to scale out of the rest of my hedges.
$ETH - As covered in prior alerts, I have scaled out of 50% of my hedges and rotated the capital back into spot, with my last buy being at $1,550. Ethereum has followed the same script as Bitcoin. The bounce pushed up toward $1,800 but stalled well short of the lost high-timeframe support range at $1,950 that I need to see reclaimed, and the price has since eased back to around $1,760. Until that reclaim happens, I'm treating this as a relief bounce rather than a sustained reversal, and I won't continue scaling out of my hedges. If the price fails to hold here instead, that would open the door for a deeper pullback into the $1,400s, where I would look to scale out of the rest of my hedges.
